Sample Category Title

The pair is trading above 112.00 handle on Tuesday, following bounce on Monday and repeated failure to close below 200SMA (111.77).

The 200SMA marks pivotal support which was dented twice (dips to 111.68 and 111.65) but so far without clear break lower.

Repeated downside failure could hurt near-term bears on sustained break above converged 10/20SMA’s (112.42) which could shift near-term bias higher.

Stronger direction signals could be expected on break of 200SMA of 10/20SMA pivots.

Downside action on sustained break below 200SMA would open 111.33 (daily Kijun-sen) and 111.09/110.90 (100SMA / daily cloud top) in extension.

Conversely, firm break above converged 10/20SMA’s would expose 112.80/113.00 resistance zone initially.

Res: 112.30, 112.42, 112.54, 112.80
Sup: 112.03, 111.76, 111.65, 111.33

GBP/USD – 1.3277





Original strategy :

Sold at 1.3315, Target:1.3115, Stop: 1.3375

Position: - Short at 1.3315

Target:  - 1.3115

Stop: - 1.3375




New strategy :

Hold short entered at 1.3315, Target:1.3115, Stop: 1.3315

Position: - Short at 1.3315

Target:  - 1.3115

Stop:- 1.3315



Although cable found support at 1.3225 and has rebounded, as long as indicated resistance at 1.3312-25 holds, mild downside bias remains for another retreat, below 1.3225 would bring weakness to 1.3195-00 but a drop below indicated support at 1.3121 is needed to retain bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.3027 has ended, bring further fall to 1.3065-75, then retest of said support at 1.3027.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.3315. Above said resistance at 1.3312-15 would risk test of said resistance at 1.3338 (last week’s high), break there would abort and signal low has been formed at 1.3027 instead, bring at least a correction of the fall from 1.3658 top to 1.3390-00 later. Our preferred count is that (pls see the attached chart) the wave IV is unfolding as a complex double three (ABC-X-ABC) correction with 2nd wave B ended at 1.2774, hence 2nd wave C could have ended at 1.3658.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200. 


GBP/JPY - 148.55

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Despite retreating to 148.20, as sterling found support there and has rebounded again, suggesting further consolidation would take place and another bounce to 149.25 cannot be ruled out, above there would extend the rebound from 146.95 for retracement of the fall from 152.85 to 149.90-00 and possibly test of resistance at 150.25 but still reckon upside would be limited to 150.90-00 and bring another decline later. 

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to said support at 148.20 and bring another rebound. Below 147.95-00 would suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness towards said support at 147.30 but break there is needed to revive bearishness and bring retest of 146.95. Looking ahead, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm the fall from 152.85 top has resumed for retracement of recent upmove to 146.60-65 and then 146.00, having said that, loss of momentum should limit downside and previous support at 145.25 should remain intact.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


EUR/JPY - 132.03

Original strategy:

Sell at 132.70, Target: 130.95, Stop: 133.30

Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Sell at 132.70, Target: 130.95, Stop: 133.30

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As euro found support at 131.6 yesterday and recovered, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and another bounce to 132.35-40 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 132.70-75 and bring another decline, below said support would add credence to our view that the decline from 134.41 top is still in progress and bearishness remains for this move to bring retracement of recent upmove to 130.95-00 but oversold condition should limit downside to support at 130.62 and reckon psychological support at 130.00 would remain intact.

In view of this, we are looking to reinstate short on recovery as 132.70-75 should limit upside. Only above indicated resistance at 133.50 would abort and risk further gain towards 134.00 but only break there would signal the correction from 134.41 has ended at 131.75, bring retest of this recent high. Once this level is penetrated, this would confirm recent uptrend has resumed and extend headway to 135.00-10 and later 135.50-60.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.17; (P) 148.57; (R1) 149.03; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. With 149.73 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. . Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we'd look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

AUD/USD – 0.7861

Original strategy:

Sold at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7935

Position: - Short at 0.7875
Target:  - 0.7700
Stop:- 0.7935

New strategy :

Hold short entered at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7900

Position: - Short at 0.7875
Target:  - 0.7700
Stop:- 0.7900

Although aussie rose to as high as 0.7897 late last week, the subsequent retreat from there has retained our bearishness and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for weakness to 0.7800, break there would suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of 0.7770-75, break there would add credence to this view, then retest of said support at 0.7733 would follow, below there would confirm recent fall from 0.8125 top has resumed for weakness to 0.7700-10 and later towards 0.7660-65. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.7875. Only above previous support at 0.7908 (now resistance) would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.7950 but resistance at 0.7986 should remain intact and bring another decline later. 

On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.86; (P) 132.12; (R1) 132.59; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral as it's still holding on to 131.69 support. Still, it's getting more likely that 134.39 is a medium term top and a downside breakout could be seen soon. Focus is on 131.69 support. Decisive break there will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level. On the upside, firm break of 134.39 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more corrective trading would be seen.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4971; (P) 1.5002; (R1) 1.5053; More....

Deeper fall is expected in EUR/AUD as long as 1.5101 minor resistance holds. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.5226 is still unfolding with fall from 1.5241 as the third leg. Break of 1.4945 will affirm this case and send EUR/AUD through 1.4791 to 1.4421 support cluster support (50% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4425). We'd expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, though, above 1.5101 will turn focus back to 1.5241 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Sustained trading above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
    •    Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Down

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
    •    Time of formation: 25 Aug 2017
    •    Trend bias: Near term up

GBP/USD – 1.3266

Despite retreating from 1.3265 to 1.3121, cable found renewed buying interest there and has staged another strong rebound later, dampening our bearishness and suggesting the rebound from 1.3027 low is still in progress, hence upside risk remains for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3343), however, a daily close above there is needed to signal the fall from 1.3658 has ended, bring further gain to resistance at 1.3455 and possibly towards resistance at 1.3596 but price should falter well below said recent high at 1.3658, bring another leg of corrective decline later. 

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3195-00 cannot be ruled out, said support at 1.3121 should remain intact, bring another rebound later. A daily close below this level would suggest the rebound from 1.3027 has ended and revive bearishness for further fall to 1.3080, then retest of 1.3027. A break below this support would retain bearishness and extend the fall from 1.3658 top for retracement of recent upmove to 1.2940-50, then 1.2900 but reckon downside would be limited to 1.2850-55 and support at 1.2774 should remain intact.

Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.  




On the weekly chart, cable found good support at 1.3121 last week and staged a strong rebound, a white candlestick was formed, hence consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, above resistance at 1.3338 would extend the rebound from 1.3027 to resistance at 1.3403 but still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3505-10 and bring another leg of corrective decline later. Only break of 1.3571 resistance would signal the pullback from 1.3658 has ended instead, risk retest of this last month’s high, break there would extend recent erratic rise from 1.1986 low to 1.3750-60 and 1.3800 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3860 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986).

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.3170-75 and said support at 1.3121 should remain intact, bring another rebound. A weekly close below 1.3121 support would signal the rebound from 1.3027 low has ended, bring further fall to 1.3070-80, then retest of 1.3027, break of this support would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.3658, bring further fall to 1.3000, then towards support at 1.2909, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous chart support at 1.2774 and price should stay well above another previous chart support at 1.2589, bring rebound later.

Cable firmed on Tuesday, sidelining immediate downside risk following Monday’s close in red and formation of bearish Outside Day which is negative signal.

Near-term action is holding in narrow range within thick hourly cloud, base of which contained Monday’s weakness, marking significant support at 1.3225, which guards 10SMA pivot at 1.3205.

Mixed daily studies show no clear direction while the price is holding between 10 and 20 SMA’s (1.3205 / 1.3311 respectively).

Dip on profit-taking of recent strong rally (1.3026 / 1.3337) was so far shallow, with near-term focus turning towards release of UK inflation data today.

Annualized CPI is expected to rise in September, according to the forecast at 3.0% vs 2.9% in August.

Release above 3.0% would be supportive for Sterling and could spark fresh rally towards Friday’s recovery high at 1.3337.

Conversely, disappointing numbers in September could lead to fresh weakness below 1.3205 (10SMA) and 1.3182 (daily Tenkan-sen) and signal an end of corrective phase from 1.3026.

Res: 1.3287, 1.3311, 1.3337, 1.3415
Sup: 1.3225, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3145