Wed, Apr 22, 2026 10:30 GMT
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    BITCOIN In Slow Ascent As Institutional Support Grows

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    Wall Street juggernaut Goldman Sachs is exploring whether to launch a new trading operation dedicated to bitcoin and other digital currencies. Goldman, which is still mulling the idea, would become the first blue-chip Wall Street firm to deal directly in the booming crypto market.

    Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told Bloomberg he sees “huge opportunities” for cryptocurrency despite its apparent connection with money laundering and speculation.

    Bitcoin prices have scaled back from multiweek highs, but continue to show upward momentum as the likes of Goldman Sachs and BlackRock show a willingness to embrace the digital currency.

    The BTC/USD exchange rate last traded near $4,235, according to Bitstamp. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range through the Asian trade.

    At present values, bitcoin has a total market value of $70.3 billion on supplies of 16.6 million.

    Despite the apparent uptrend, the BTC/USD has seen its price action weaken in recent sessions, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day SMA.

    Pound Gives Way To Technical Selling

    The British pound has slipped back towards the weekly price-low against the U.S dollar, after solid economic data from the United States, and a lack of buying interest for the GBPUSD pair above the key 1.3291 level.

    Intraday trading sentiment around the pair is currently mixed, as British pound buying remains contained and uncertainty surrounding the appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair, starts to limit gains in the U.S dollar index.

    The GBPUSD pair is currently range-bound between 1.3218 and 1.3291, with price-action now consolidating mid-range around the 1.3250 level.

    A move below the 1.3218 level should accelerate intraday losses below the 1.3200 level, whilst a move above the 1.3291 level should further buying interest towards 1.3340.

    Key intraday technical support for the GBPUSD pair is found at 1.3218, 1.3190, 1.3165 and the pairs 50-day moving average, at 1.3142.

    To the upside, key intraday technical resistance is found at the GBPUSD daily pivot point, at 1.3257, and 1.3285. Once above the 1.3291 level, further resistance is found at 1.3340 and 1.3360.

    Euro Losing Bullish Momentum

    The euro has fallen back below the key 1.1770 level against the U.S dollar, after the United States Institute for Supply Management Service Sector PMI improved at its best pace in over twelve years.

    Intraday trading sentiment surrounding the EURUSD pair is currently bearish, as U.S economic data starts to improve, and political tensions between Catalonia and Spanish government continue to worsen.

    Price-action is currently contained in an increasingly tight trading range, with sellers unable to push price below the 1.1738 level, and buyers unable to gain traction above the 1.1770 level.

    Euro traders will wait for the release of the ECB Meeting Minutes later today, which may offer clues on the ECB policy makers latest thoughts on the monetary policy, and the euro's current exchange rate.

    Key intraday technical support for the EURUSD is found at 1.1738 and 1.1710. Once clearly below the 1.1710 level, further declines to 1.1662 and 1.1610 remain likely.

    To the upside, key intraday technical resistance is found at 1.1770, the former daily price high, at 1.1785, and the key 1.1800 level. Once above 1.1800, key weekly resistance is found at 1.1823 and 1.1851.

    Central Bank Speeches Centre Stage On Thursday

    The financial markets are ripe with activity on Thursday, with the focal point shifting to monetary policy.

    European Central Bank (ECB) Board Members Peter Praet and Benoit Coeure are scheduled to deliver speeches on Thursday. Praet’s remarks will come before the ECB’s meeting minutes, whereas Coeure will speak after.

    In the United States, Federal Reserve members Jerome Powell, John Williams, Patrick Harker and Esther George are all lined up to speak. Powell is reportedly under consideration for the role of Federal Reserve Chair once Janet Yellen’s first term expires in February.

    In terms of economic data, the Commerce Department will report on factory orders Thursday morning. Separately, Commerce will also report on trade for the month of August.

    The Labor Department will also issue its weekly jobless claims data just 24 hours before the official nonfarm payrolls report. The US economy is projected to add a mere 100,000 nonfarm jobs in September.

    Earlier in the day, the Australian government reported an unexpected decline in retail sales, but said its trade surplus rose more than expected in August. Receipts at retail stores declined 0.6% from July, following a decline of 0.2% the previous month. Analysts in a median estimate called for an increase of 0.3%.

    Canberra’s trade surplus came in at $989 million compared to July, up from $808 million the month before. Exports rose 1%, while imports failed to grow.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar fell on mixed data, with the AUD/USD exchange rate sliding 0.4% to 0.7828. The pair briefly fell below 0.7800 cents earlier in the week as the US dollar asserted its dominance. The 0.7800 level continues to offer immediate support for the AUD/USD. A break below that level could lead to a pullback toward 0.7741. On the opposite side of the ledger, the major resistance line is 0.8160, which is the gateway to the January 2015 high near 0.8300.

    EUR/USD

    The euro opened flat on Thursday, and is currently trading within a narrow range against the dollar. The EUR/USD has been trending downward over the past two weeks, with the latest turmoil in Catalonia adding to the bearish pressure. The pair was last seen trading at 1.1755. The EUR/USD levels to watch include 1.1720, which remains the key support line. A break below this level would expose the 1.1660 region. On the flipside, immediate resistance is likely to come in at 1.1820.

    GBP/USD

    Cable was rangebound on Thursday, as the market consolidated in the mid-1.32 region. The GBP/USD has fallen below 1.33 this week, stoking fresh bearish concerns. On Thursday morning, the pair was trading at 1.3241. Immediate support is located at 1.3320. The major resistance line is seen at 1.3340.

    EUR/GBP Bulls In Control

    Price increases very fast and should reach the median line (ML) very soon. I’ve said in another report that the EUR/GBP should jump above the wl3 after the failure to reach the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork. Technically, it could climb towards the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork in the upcoming weeks even if will stay under the ML.

    EUR/CHF Changed Little

    EUR/CHF looks undecided today, is fighting hard to resume the minor rebound, but the bulls need support. Technically, it should climb higher after the false breakdown below the upper median line (uml) of the minor ascending pitchfork and after the failure to reach the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork.

    Is still under some pressure on the daily chart despite the current increase. A valid breakdown below the upper median line (uml) will announce a significant drop.

    AUD/USD Erased The Yesterday’s Gains

    The currency pair dropped sharply today and it seems poised to resume the downward movement, this scenario will take shape only if the USDX will resume the bullish movement. Price is trading near a very strong support area, so only a valid breakdown will confirm a further drop.

    AUD/USD moves in range on the short term and it was expected to climb higher on the short term after the false breakdown from the minor range. Technically, the current drop could be only temporary, it could increase again if the USDX will slip lower.

    The USDX is trading below the 93.81 static resistance, but maintains a bullish bias on the short term despite the yesterday's drop. The USD will dominate the currency market if the USDX will have enough directional energy to jump and stabilize above the 93.81 upside obstacle.

    Price drops aggressively and tries to breakdown below the median line (ml) of the minor descending pitchfork and below the 38.2% retracement level. It was expected to try to climb towards the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork, but a further increase will be invalidated if will close below the median line (ml).

    A drop towards the next major downside target (WL1) will be confirmed after a retest of the median line (ml). Technically, it should approach and reach the lower median line (lml) of the minor descending pitchfork. This scenario will take shape only if the USDX will jump much above the 93.81 obstacle.

    Forex: Further Strong Data From The US

    On Wednesday, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released Non-Manufacturing PMI for September that surprised the market with the US service sector index increasing to its highest level in more than 12 years. The ISM non-manufacturing index, for September, climbed to its highest level since August 2005 and the prices paid index reached its highest level since early 2012. Such strong data gives more substance to a rate hike in December. The latest CME FedWatch Tool shows an 83% probability of a December rate rise, up from 78% on Tuesday.

    Further strong data came from the US ADP Employment Change for September that was released on Wednesday. 135,000 new jobs were added by private employers, beating the forecast of 125,000. The increase surprised many, as the markets had expected the recent hurricanes to have been detrimental to the job market. The ADP report further underscores the strong US labour market and the markets will now be looking for confirmation of its strength with this Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.

    Data released on Wednesday, from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), showed US crude stockpiles fell 6.02M barrels to approximately 465M barrels last week, the biggest drop since mid-August. In addition, crude exports rose to 1.98M bpd last week, overtaking the previous weeks record of 1.5M, its 4th consecutive weekly gain. With Libya purportedly resuming output at its Sharara oil field, the increase supply has resulted in WTI edging lower. However, the market is expecting a degree of stability in prices as suggestions abound that Saudi Arabia and Russia would extend production cuts. Russian President Putin stated on Wednesday that “a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, to cut oil output to boost prices could be extended to the end of 2018, instead of expiring in March 2018”.

    EURUSD is little changed overnight, currently trading around 1.1760.

    USDJPY is currently holding below 113, trading around 112.80.

    GBPUSD Had little reaction to Prime Minister Theresa May’s address to her Party Conference. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3235.

    Gold is trading close to Wednesday’s close. Currently, Gold is trading around $1,274.

    WTI fell on the back of the latest EIA report and is currently trading around $50.15.

    Major economic data releases for today:

    At 06:30 BST, The Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle is scheduled to speak.

    At 09:30 BST, European Central Bank Executive Board member Peter Praet is scheduled to make the Welcome address at the 7th ECB conference on central eastern and south-eastern European Countries (CESEE) “Institutional quality and sustainable economic convergence”, organized by the ECB CESEE in Frankfurt, Germany.

    At 12:30 BST, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released. The accounts provide an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It’s followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance.

    At 13:30, the US Department of Labor will release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 29th, along with Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending September 22nd. Continuing claims are forecast to come in at 1.950M, slightly higher than the previous release of 1.934M. Jobless Claims are expected to be lower at 265K, 7K less than the previous reading of 272K. A release wildly outside of expectations will see USD volatility.

    Several Central Bankers are scheduled to speak:

    At 14:10 BST, FOMC Member Jerome Powell

    At 14:15 BST, FOMC Member John Williams

    At 15:00 BST, FOMC Patrick Harker

    At 18:30 BST, MPC Member, and Chief Economist at the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane

    At 21:30 BST, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George

    XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

    XAUUSD (1274.25): Gold prices continue to remain flat, trading near the support level of 1275 - 1273. This is likely to signal a bottoming in prices. The falling trend line will be the major trigger as a breakout from this trend line could see gold prices attempting to test the initial resistance level at 1290 followed by a continuation towards 1300.00. To the downside, in the event that price action fails to breakout higher, we could expect the support level to give up, that could push gold prices lower towards 1262.83 initially.

    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1702; (P) 1.1738 (R1) 1.1780; More...

    No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.1832 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. Fall from 1.2091 would extend through 1.1661 support. Decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we're expecting support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1832 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective fall is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

    In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

    EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

    EUR/USD Daily Chart