Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.96; (P) 149.43; (R1) 149.83; More

At this point, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 141.17 to 152.82 at 148.36 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 150.22 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, firm break of 148.45 will argue that whole rise from 139.39 is completed. In the case, deeper fall should be seen through 55 day EMA (now at 146.27)

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is in progress. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

WTI oil was steady on Thursday and probed above $50 handle after five-day fall found footstep at $49.76 on Wednesday.

Oil prices were supported by larger than expected fall in crude inventories which fell by 6 million barrels last week, EIA report showed on Wednesday.

Oil was also boosted by comments from Russian President Putin who said that OPEC and other main oil producers outside the cartel pledge to extend existing production cut deal to the end of 2018, as the deal expires in March 2018.

Fresh boost to the oil price gives a breather to near-term bears that made a $3 fall in past five days.

The pullback from $52.84 is seen as correction of larger $45.57/$52.84 rally and was so far contained by $50 zone, which is seen as ideal reversal point.

Daily techs remain bullish overall and support scenario of fresh upside, along with deeply oversold slow stochastic.

However, recovery needs to clear important barriers, to generate firmer bullish signals and shift bias higher.

Initial barrier lies at $50.26, provided by 20SMA and base of thick hourly cloud, which so far capped today’s recovery action.

Close above here would open way towards hourly cloud top at $50.75 and next pivot at $51.08 (10SMA) and confirm reversal on sustained break higher.

Res: 50.26, 50.75, 51.08, 51.70
Sup: 49.76, 49.48, 49.20, 48.90

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8857; (P) 0.8868; (R1) 0.8887; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8745 extends higher today. Break of 0.8998 argues that fall from 0.9305 is already completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.8941) will pave the way to retest 0.9305 key resistance. On the downside, below 0.8745 will extend the fall from 0.9305. However, as such decline is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 0.9304. We'll look for bottoming signal again at it approaches 0.8303 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's still in progress with fall from 0.9305 as the third leg. Break of 0.8303 could be seen. But even in that case, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4940; (P) 1.4968; (R1) 1.4983; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/UAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5173 is still in progress. On the upside, break of 1.5173/5226 resistance zone will finally resume larger rise from 1.3624. In that case, EUR/AUD will target 1.5644 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.4791 support will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1431; (P) 1.1457; (R1) 1.1490; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook. With 1.1487 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. Fall from 1.1622 is a correction and break of 1.1387 would target 1.1257 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0652 to 1.1622 at 1.1251). Strong support is expected there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1.1487 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 1.1622.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds.

The Aussie dollar fell in Asia on Thursday, following weaker than expected data. Australian retail sales fell 0.6% in August, undershooting forecast for 0.3% raise and posting biggest fall since March 2013.

Better than expected Australian Trade Balance data (trade surplus widened to A$0.98B, well above forecasted A$0.87B and surplus of A$ 0.80 in July) did not have stronger impact in offsetting negative signal from downbeat retail sales.

The AUDUSD pair remains in red at the beginning of European session, with near-term focus turning lower after recovery rally from Tuesday’s low at 0.7785 stalled at 0.7874 on Wednesday, capped by falling 10SMA.

Fresh near-term bears have so far retraced 61.8% of 0.7785/0.7874 recovery and look for retest of daily cloud base (0.7800) which marks key near-term support, reinforced by rising 100SMA (0.7780). Break here would generate fresh bearish signal for resumption of the downtrend from 0.8124 (08 Sep peak) towards targets at 0.7726 (weekly Kijun-sen).

Bears are expected to stay in play while falling 10SMA caps and only sustained break here would ease persisting downside pressure.

US jobs data on Friday are eyed for fresh signals.

Res: 0.7840, 0.7874, 0.7930, 0.7933
Sup: 0.7800, 0.7785, 0.7745, 0.7726

The pair is narrowing range ahead of Friday's US jobs data which are eyed for fresh signals.

Overall bullish structure remains intact despite repeated upside rejections above 113.00, as the price holds above initial supports at 112.46/36, provided by 10SMA/daily Tenkan- sen. Strong downside rejection on Wednesday which left long-tailed daily candle, confirms the strength of supports.

In addition, 200 SMA marks next strong support at 111.93 and also underpins near-term action.

Stronger direction signal will be generated on sustained break of each side, depending on the outcome of US jobs data.

Lift above recent peaks at 113.25 zone would signal fresh acceleration towards barriers at 114.00/49.

Conversely, loss of 200SMA support would generate initial signal of reversal and expose strong support at 111.37 (daily Ichimoku cloud top).

Res: 112.93, 113.25, 113.57, 114.00
Sup: 112.36, 112.21, 111.93, 111.56

Cable fell to fresh three-week low at 1.3173 after eventual break below near-term base at 1.3220, reinforced by rising 30SMA, where the price action was contained in past two days.

Fresh acceleration lower signals resumption of bear-leg from 1.3655 (20 Sep peak) which eyes next strong supports at 1.3128/10 (rising 55SMA / Fibo 61.8% of 1.2773/1.3655 rally) and could expose psychological 1.30 support, reinforced by 100SMA.

Bearishly aligned techs (10/20 SMA bear cross was formed today and increases downside pressure) support further weakness, along with political concerns over possible exit of PM May which would increase risk of early election in 2018/19, also heavily weighing on pound.

With no significant releases from the UK today, politics and speeches from BoE MPC members are seen as main internal driver for the pound. Series of US data and speakers will be the key external factors that could affect the pound on Thursday.

Res: 1.3220, 1.3250, 1.3291, 1.3353
Sup: 1.3173, 1.3148, 1.3128, 1.3110

The Euro stays in green for the third day but recovery is seen limited for now. Falling 10SMA offers immediate resistance at 1.1793, along with the base of thickening 4-hr cloud (1.1794/1.1875) which heavily weighs on near-term action.

Recovery needs sustained break above 1.1800 to generate firmer bullish signal for extended correction towards 1.1832 (29 Sep lower top) and key barrier at 1.1865 (daily cloud top).

Only sustained break here would neutralize near-term bears.

Meanwhile, limited upside attempts will keep the downside vulnerable for retest of key support at 1.1720 (cracked Fibo 38.2% of 1.1118/1.2092) with sustained break here to bring bears fully in play for extension of the bear-leg from 1.2092 peak towards strong support at 1.1604 (daily cloud top).

Res: 1.1793, 1.1816, 1.1832, 1.1865
Sup: 1.1747, 1.1720, 1.1696, 1.1662

USDJPY continues to trade within a broad range between 108 and 114 since April. The short-term bias is to the upside and daily momentum signals remain bullish. MACD is above zero and rising and RSI is above 50, although the indicator has flattened out, suggesting that upside momentum has weakened. USDJPY may be entering a consolidation phase in the near term.

Daily Ichimoku cloud analysis shows that risk is skewed to the upside and bullish signals were given when USDJPY rose above the cloud and over the Tenkan-sen line. This line is now acting as support at 112.34. Should this level hold, then prices may progress towards the upper end of the broader range at the key 114 level. A break of the 114.49 high will confirm the bullish case and open the way towards 115.55 and 118.66. Another extension higher would see a resumption of the longer-term uptrend that started from a year ago when prices rose off the 100 area.

A drop below current support at the Tenkan-sen line would target the top of the cloud at 111.52. Entering the cloud would shift the short-term bias to bearish to target the bottom of the range at 108 and then 107.31 (September 8 low). A drop out of the range would bring more weakness in the market and turn the focus to the downside. The first target would be the October 2016 high at 105.52 and then from here, the odds increase for a move towards the psychological 100-level.

The short-term bias is bullish but turning neutral as there are diminished odds for further USDJPY strength due to the flat RSI. The medium-term neutral market structure remains intact.