Sample Category Title

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1699

The outlook is bearish below 1.1670 minor resistance, for a break through 1.1660, towards 1.1480 zone. Key hurdle on the upside is 1.1830.

USD/JPY

Current level - 113.11

My outlook remains positive, for a rise towards 113.80, en route to 114.50 zone. 

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3246

Yesterday's slide tested precisely 1.3220 support area, so allow a brief corrective rebound before breaking lower, towards 1.3150. Key resistance lies at 1.3340.

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.1730 and hit 1.1707 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.1600 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1750. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1800 region but as long as stay below 1.1850 price is still in a bearish correction phase. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.1600 would expose 1.1450 area. Overall I remain bullish.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday broke below 1.3330 support area, bottomed at 1.3256 and hit 1.3241 earlier today in Asian session. Price is in a bearish correction zone now. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3150 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3300 – 1.3330 region. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3400 area. Overall I remain bullish but need a clear break at least above 1.3400 to potentially end the current bearish correction phase.

USDJPY

The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a bullish phase targeting 113.50 area. Immediate support is seen around 112.66 (current low). A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.35 – 111.65 key support area which remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss. Overall I remain neutral but as long as stay above 111.65 the H1 chart bias should remain bullish.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 0.9754 and hit 0.9770 earlier today in Asian session. Price revisits the daily EMA 200 as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term but 0.9765 – 0.9807 area remains a key resistance and good place to sell with a tight stop loss above 0.9807. Immediate support is seen around 0.9730. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9650 region. Overall I remain neutral.

Growing risk in Catalonia

We continued to see an underpricing of Catalonia risk. Partially since markets tend to expect the least intrusive outcome and partially the market rumors that, this is merely a domestic issue. Meaning should Spain break up the EU will deal with both parties as separate entities. This is fake news and massive miscalculation. European commission issued a statement, which indicated should Catalonia ever leave Spain in a legal referendum; it would immediately be thrown-out of the EU. In a massive error, the callousness of the EU government by siding with Madrid despite the brutality on referendum Sunday, is likely to have Catalonia's loyalty to the EU weaken. In our view the strongest argument for Catalonia to remain a part of Spain, a unified Europe, has now been squandered. Removing this logical argument opens up this struggle to extremes.

The regional government of Catalonia has issued general demonstrations for today, which is likely to harden both sides rather than relieve tensions. Empowered by the lack of consideration for the democratic process radical members of Catalonia government has called for unilateral declarations of immediate independence. The outlook for Span has got4en considerably more uncertain. Our expectation is for call for independence this week and possibly will trigger Article 155were the Madrid Government where they would take over regional policy and fiscal tasks. We remain bearish on the Euro in light of events in Spain and expect things to get worse before they improve. Break of 5-month uptrend at 1.1836 indicate bearish extension to 1.1660 August low.

RBA holds rate at record low

Earlier last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia has held rates unchanged AT 1.5% and this has triggered some slight weakness for the Aussie. It is the 14th consecutive months that rates remain unchanged. Central bankers declared that there are confident about growth picking up within a near future. RBA is definitely not in a hurry to tighten its monetary policy, especially since the Aussie stays strong.

Fundamentals remain somewhat mixed with low wages growth, which concerns the central bank's members. Inflation is currently standing below 2%, just under the long-term inflation target of 2%-3%. Q2 growth printed at 0.8% q/q, which was a good improvement.

The AUD keeps on being strong. The pair dipped below $0.78 which is the lowest level in the last two months. Yet, we believe that upside pressures on the Aussie are set to continue due to the improving nature of the Australian economy and their strong exposure to gold & metals. Indeed, we consider that the precious metals' prices are going to be driven higher because of increasing global inflation.

Risk of an RBI rate cut

On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), policy meeting will be key to EM pricing. It's widely expected the RBI to hold rates unchanged however, there is a high probability of a surprise rate cut. India's economic expansions has slowed significantly causing concern with policy makers. While drop in real interest rates despite rise in upward pressure on inflation, will force the RBI to act. Should the policy meeting stick expectations the tone of the statement will likely indicate that additional policy rate cut is on the table. Shift in tone or cut combined with narrowing US-India rate spread and uncertainty over EM reaction of fed policy will keep INR weak.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.98; (P) 149.97; (R1) 150.66; More

GBP/JPY's consolidation from 152.82 is still in progress. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 141.17 to 152.82 at 148.36 to bring rebound. Break of 152.82 will extend the larger rise from 122.36 to 61.8% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 139.29 at 155.39 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is in progress. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

Bitcoin is still on a strong momentum. Strong support is given at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). Sell walls around $4000 have been broken. Key resistance can be located at 4921 (01/09/2017 high). The road is wide open for further increase.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

Crude oil is consolidating above the $50 level. Key support is given at 45.40 (17/08/2017 high). Strong resistance found at 52.43 (26/09/2017) has been broken. Expected to show another leg higher.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Silver has reversed and has broken uptrend channel by breaking support implied by its lower bound. Strong resistance is given at 18.65 (17/04/2017 high) while support found at 16.58 (15/08/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show further bearish move.

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold continues to go down. Hourly support is given at 1267 (15/08/2017 low). Hourly resistance is located at 1357 (08/09/2016). Stronger support lies at 1204 (10/07/2017 high). Expected to show further bearish move.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.96; (P) 132.51; (R1) 132.83; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidative trading below 134.39 high. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 131.69 holds. Sustained break of 134.20 fibonacci level will extend larger up trend to 141.04 resistance next. However, break of 131.69 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 109.03 is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. On the downside, break of 127.55 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

EUR/CHF is back into the uptrend channel. Yet, we need more downside pressures. Strong resistance is now given at 1.1623 (22/09/2017 high). Expected to show further short-term weakness.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).