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EUR/CHF's buying pressures are going up and the pair has broken resistance area between 1.1356 and 1.1472. The pair has also broken resistance at 1.1538 (04/08/2017 high). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is trading lower. The pair is having strong selling pressures. As long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.9176 (declining trendline), the short-term technical structure is biased to the downside. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017). Strong resistance lies at 0.9306 (29/07/2017 high).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level)

AUD/USD is weakening in the short-term. Hourly resistance is given at 0.8164 (14/05/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.7908 (22/09/2017 low). Expected to further weaken.

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD continues to move higher. Hourly support is located at 1.2062 (08/09/2017 low). Resistance is given at a distance at 1.2390 (20/09/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

GBP/USD – 1.3437
 
 
Although sterling resumed recent upmove and rose to as high as 1.3658 last week, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.3400 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3350-55 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above 1.3595-00 would signal the retreat from 1.3658 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend the medium term erratic rise from 1.1986 low to 1.3700-10 but overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3800 and price should falter well below 1.3955-60 (50% Fibonacci retracement of intermediate downtrend from 1.5930-1.1986). 

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has possibly ended at 1.7192, below support at 1.4232 would add credence to this count, then further fall to 1.4000 level would follow but reckon downside would be limited to 1.3655 support and price should stay above previous support at 1.3500.

On the downside, although current pullback from 1.3658 suggests initial downside risk is for minor correction to 1.3400, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3350-55 and bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. Below previous resistance at 1.3329 (now support) would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.3290-00, then 1.3240-50 but said support at 1.3153 should remain intact, bring another upmove later.

Recommendation: Buy again at 1.3355 for 1.3555 with stop below 1.3255.

 
Longer term - Cable's rise from 1.0520 (Feb 1985) to 2.0100 (September 1992) is seen as [A], the decline to 1.3682 is labeled as (B) and (C) wave rally has ended at 2.1162 (9 Nov, 2007) which is also the top of larger degree wave B with circle. The selloff from there is a 5-waver with wave (A) ended at 1.3500 (23 Jan 2009), wave (B) itself is labeled as A: 1.6733, triangle wave B: 1.4813 and wave C as well as top of wave (B) ended at 1.7192 (2014), hence the selloff from there is an impulsive wave (C) with wave I : 1.4566, wave II 1.5930, an extended wave III is unfolding and already exceeded our downside target at 1.3500 and 1.3000, hence weakness to 1.2500 and possibly 1.2000 cannot be ruled out, however, price should stay well above psychological level at 1.0000.

USD/CHF is trading mixed. Strong resistance is given at 0.9808 (30/05/2017 high). The technical structure shows that there are decent downside risks. Strong support is given at 0.9421 (03/05/2017). Expected to show renewed bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY is bouncing lower below 113.00. Strong support is located at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low). Expected to show further bearish pressures. Yet, downside risks are rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD is pushing lower after recent surge. Hourly resistance is given at 1.3657 (20/09/2017 high). Strong support is given at 1.3431 (25/09/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD is consolidating lower in a downtrend channel. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.2092 (08/09/2017 high) while hourly support lies at 1.1823 (31/08/2017 low). Stronger support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/JPY – 150.25




 

The British pound rallied and finally broke above previous chart resistance at 148.45, confirming our bullish view that the erratic rise from 120.50 low (wave v trough) has resumed and may extend further subsequent gain to 153.50-60, then 154.00-10, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 155.00, risk from there has increased for a correction to take place later.  


 
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.



 
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 149.50, then 148.90-00 cannot be ruled out, reckon 148.10-20 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Below minor support at 147.25 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 146.50-60, then towards 146.00 but still reckon support at 145.25 would remain intact, sterling shall head north again from there in Q4.  



Recommendation: Buy at 148.20 for 151.20 with stop below 147.20.

The long-term downtrend from 570.99 (29 Feb 1980) is labeled as an impulsive wave with III with circle ended at 129.77 (20 Apr 1995) and the corrective rebound to 251.12 (20 Jul 2007) is treated as wave IV with circle and the wave V with circle selloff from 251.12 has possibly ended at 116.80 (almost reached our indicated target at 116.00) and major correction has commenced from there and indicated upside target at 183.90-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 251.10-116.85) had been met, reckon upside would be limited to 199.80-90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring wave (V) decline in later part of 2017.