Sample Category Title

EUR/CHF recovery bounce has stalled below downtrend resistance located at 1.1407. Hourly support is located at 1.1260 (04/08/2017 low). Expected to show further consolidation.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high) has been broken. Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP's buying pressures continues. Hourly resistance lies at 0.9415 (10/07/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9189 (24/08/2017 low). Downside risks are nonetheless important.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

GBP/USD – 1.2963





Original strategy :

Sold at 1.2910, stopped at 1.2970

Position: - Short at 1.2910

Target:  - 1.2710

Stop: - 1.2970




New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:- 



As cable found renewed buying interest at 1.2873 yesterday and staged a stronger-than-expected rebound, suggesting a temporary low has been formed at 1.2774 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for this rebound to bring retracement of recent decline from 1.3269, hence further gain to 1.3000 and possibly towards resistance at 1.3032 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3080, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.2900-10 would bring pullback to 1.2870-75, however, reckon downside would be limited and if our new that temporary low has been formed at 1.2774 is correct, downside should be limited to 1.2820-30 and bring another rebound later. 

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200. 


AUD/USD has broken downtrend channel. Hourly support can be found at 0.7786 (18/07/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 0.8066 (27/07/2017 high). Expected to further consolidate.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD selling continues. Hourly support is given at a distance at 1.2414 (27/07/2017 low) while resistance is now given at a distance at 1.2778 (15/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish move.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low) before bouncing back. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair should head further lower.

USD/CHF is heading lower. Strong resistance is given at 0.9771 (15/06/2017 high). Hourly support at 0.9584 (08/11/2017 low) has been broken. Expected to show growing continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015

USD/JPY is now monitoring support at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show another leg lower.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD bearish momentum has bounced around support given at 1.2774 (24/08/2017 high). Hourly resistance is given at 1.3031 (11/08/2017 high). Expected to show short-term bullish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD bullish pressures are strong. The pair has broken hourly resistance at 1.1910 (02/08/2017 high) while hourly support lies at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show increasing bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

We're seeing significant risk aversion in the markets on Tuesday, with European indices heavily in the red, US futures indicating a similar open on Wall Street, Gold at near-10 month highs and the yen making steady gains.

A ramp up in tensions between North Korea and the US, South Korea and Japan overnight has raised geopolitical risk once again, with Kim Jong Un showing no signs of ceding to international pressures. The missile launch comes as no surprise given proximity to the annual military exercises between the US and South Korea, but the fact that the missile was shot over Northern Japan and prompted warning sirens encouraging people to take cover is a concern.

The distressing impact of Hurricane Harvey in Houston is also weighing heavily on sentiment this morning. From a markets perspective, the uncertainty surrounding the cost and the economic implications of the storm is going to be a concern for investors, although it is difficult to look past the sheer devastation it has caused at the moment.

The dollar is coming under significant pressure in the aftermath of the storm, which has taken the dollar index to its lowest since the start of 2015 and below the 92-93 support zone that has held firmly since then. This move has coincided with the euro trading at its highest against the greenback since the first trading day of 2015, which will be a blow to the ECB which has tried to repeatedly talk down the currency as it prepares to further reduce its quantitative easing program.

Draghi's comments at Jackson Hole did little to halt the charge higher, with the ECB President keen to stress that “a significant degree of monetary accommodation” is still warranted, a statement which doesn't suggest the current level will remain. He's doing his best to talk down the currency but the fact of the matter is that he'd going against the tide, the ECB wants to taper and it looks as though it's going to happen. Traders hear his words and are look past the dovish filler and instead focus on what he isn't saying.

Gold is trading higher again on Tuesday, having finally broken through $1,300 on Monday driven by safe haven demand. The next test for the yellow metal should come around the November high around $1,337.40 but I think further gains could be in store.