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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7055; (P) 0.7076; (R1) 0.7093; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.7146 would extend further and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 0.6896 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3614; (P) 1.3627; (R1) 1.3651; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 1.3480. While stronger rebound cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3744) to complete the pattern. On the downside, firm break of 1.3480 will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9110; (P) 0.9124; (R1) 0.9134; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 0.9092. Further decline is expected as long as long as 0.9180 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9092 will resume larger down trend and target 261.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.9180 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 0.9232).

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9258) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8687; (P) 0.8695; (R1) 0.8704; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8744 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction. Further rally should then be seen back to retest 0.8863 high. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8631) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6710; (P) 1.6767; (R1) 1.6815; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.6620. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.7060 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 16620 will resume larger down trend from 1.8554 to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, firm break of 1.7060 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.30; (P) 181.80; (R1) 182.44; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27. On the downside, sustained break of 181.27 will argue that fall from 186.86 is correcting whole up trend from 154.77. Next near term target will be 161.8% projection of 186.86 to 181.76 from 186.22 at 177.96. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 182.99 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 186.86 high first.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD and break of 55 D EMA (now at 182.64), a medium term top could be formed at 186.86 already. Deeper correction would be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 186.86 will resume larger up trend to 78.6% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 207.82; (P) 208.58; (R1) 209.28; More...

Outlook in GBP/JPY is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral with immediate focus on 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.98 at 208.29. Sustained break of 208.29 will suggest that larger scale correction is already underway and target 203.27 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 210.47 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 214.83/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.88), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.

Yen strengthened modestly in quiet Asian trading, with many regional centers closed for Lunar New Year. Liquidity remains thin, keeping most major pairs confined within last week’s ranges. Despite limited volatility, Japanese assets offered a subtle signal of resilience.

Japan’s government bonds extended gains after the first JGB auction since the snap election passed without disruption. Demand at the five-year debt sale improved slightly, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising to 3.10 from 3.08 previously — the first increase since September.

While the improvement does not signal a full recovery in investor confidence, it suggests markets are stabilizing following the election uncertainty. Importantly, the auction cleared without disorderly selling, passing what many viewed as a near-term litmus test.

Attention now turns to the 20-year auction scheduled for February 19, which will provide a clearer read on longer-end demand. Sustained strength in JGBs could lend additional support to Yen.

Elsewhere, Aussie remains steady after RBA minutes reaffirmed tightening bias. Markets continue to price a high probability of a May rate hike, limiting downside in AUD. However, the next leg higher will likely require confirmation from incoming data. Thursday’s employment report stands as the immediate catalyst.

In commodities, Gold and Silver edged lower, partly tracking Dollar’s modest recovery. Easing geopolitical tensions also weighed on safe-haven demand. US President Donald Trump said he would be involved “indirectly” in renewed talks with Iran over its nuclear program in Geneva, expressing belief that Tehran seeks a deal. Separately, US-mediated discussions between Ukraine and Russia resume in Geneva, focusing on territorial issues.

Reduced geopolitical risk premium has contributed to mild pullback in precious metals, aligning with technical vulnerability highlighted previously here.

So far this week, Dollar leads performance, followed by Kiwi and Aussie. Sterling is the weakest, trailed by Yen and Euro, while Swiss Franc and Loonie sit in middle. Yet with major pairs still trapped within last week’s ranges, conviction remains low and broader direction awaits stronger catalysts.

RBA minutes sees risks tilting toward tighter policy

Minutes of RBA’s February 3 meeting revealed that while the case for holding rates was considered, members ultimately saw a stronger argument for raising the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%. The decision reflected growing concern that inflation pressures may prove more persistent than previously anticipated.

The Board judged that part of the recent rise in inflation likely reflects sustained "capacity pressure", and that financial conditions were "currently not restrictive enough " to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe. Data received since the previous meeting strengthened the view that, "without a policy response, inflation could remain persistently above target for too long."

Members also acknowledged that risks to both price stability and full employment objectives had "shifted materially". Staff forecasts show inflation staying above the midpoint of the target range for at least two more years, based on a market-implied path that assumes two additional hikes in 2026. If realized, that would extend the already prolonged period during which underlying inflation has exceeded target. At the same time, downside risks to the labor market were seen as having diminished.

Still, policymakers stressed "prevailing uncertainties meant it was not possible to have a high degree of confidence in any particular path for the cash rate." The minutes suggest the tightening bias remains intact, but future moves will hinge squarely on incoming data, particularly inflation and labor market developments.

AUD/USD steady after RBA minutes, momentum tempered but uptrend intact

AUD/USD is steady after RBA minutes reinforced tightening bias, though policymakers emphasized low confidence in outlining the next move. That cautious messaging capped immediate upside follow-through. Still, markets continue to price a solid chance of a May rate hike, despite growing talk that the currency’s recent surge could lessen the need for further tightening. As long as those expectations remain intact, any pullback in AUD/USD should be contained, leaving the broader uptrend undisturbed.

In recent days, arguments have surfaced that Aussie’s recent surge may act as a “shadow hike,” reducing need for additional tightening. Since early January, AUD has rallied roughly 5.8% against Dollar and 4.8% against Yuan. A stronger exchange rate lowers import prices, theoretically easing inflation pressure without further rate increases.

Given that China accounts for roughly 25–30% of Australia’s total trade and US around 11% of goods imports, the appreciation looks meaningful. Standard models suggest that a sustained 10% appreciation trims headline inflation by about 0.5–1.0% over a year.

However, relying on currency strength alone to anchor inflation is a risky strategy. The recent 5% move is helpful but limited, and its impact is concentrated in goods prices. Yet goods inflation is no longer the primary problem. December CPI showed headline at 3.8%, driven by domestic pressures. Rent inflation persists amid structural housing constraints. Services costs remain elevated due to wage dynamics. In short, exchange-rate strength does little to address core domestic drivers.

The logic for further tightening rests on three pillars a stronger AUD cannot directly weaken. First, labor market remains tight, and wage growth continues to support services inflation. Second, productivity gains remain modest. Without stronger output per worker, higher wages feed directly into higher prices. Third, fiscal policy still provides tailwinds, offsetting some monetary restraint.

Market pricing continues to assign high probability to another 25bps hike in May, pending Q1 CPI confirmation. Unless data show abrupt cooling in labor market or services pricing, the “shadow hike” narrative is unlikely to displace tightening bias.

Technically, some more consolidations would likely be seen in AUD/USD below 0.7146 short term top. But downside should be contained above 0.6896 support to bring up trend resumption. The real test lies in 0.72 zone, with 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213. Decisive break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.7516. But that break through 0.72 might need either a shift in expectations for more than one RBA hike this year, or more Fed rate cuts.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 207.82; (P) 208.58; (R1) 209.28; More...

Outlook in GBP/JPY is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral with immediate focus on 38.2% retracement of 197.47 to 214.98 at 208.29. Sustained break of 208.29 will suggest that larger scale correction is already underway and target 203.27 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 210.47 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 214.83/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.88), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.

AUD/USD is steady after RBA minutes reinforced tightening bias, though policymakers emphasized low confidence in outlining the next move. That cautious messaging capped immediate upside follow-through. Still, markets continue to price a solid chance of a May rate hike, despite growing talk that the currency’s recent surge could lessen the need for further tightening. As long as those expectations remain intact, any pullback in AUD/USD should be contained, leaving the broader uptrend undisturbed.

In recent days, arguments have surfaced that Aussie’s recent surge may act as a “shadow hike,” reducing need for additional tightening. Since early January, AUD has rallied roughly 5.8% against Dollar and 4.8% against Yuan. A stronger exchange rate lowers import prices, theoretically easing inflation pressure without further rate increases.

Given that China accounts for roughly 25–30% of Australia’s total trade and US around 11% of goods imports, the appreciation looks meaningful. Standard models suggest that a sustained 10% appreciation trims headline inflation by about 0.5–1.0% over a year.

However, relying on currency strength alone to anchor inflation is a risky strategy. The recent 5% move is helpful but limited, and its impact is concentrated in goods prices. Yet goods inflation is no longer the primary problem. December CPI showed headline at 3.8%, driven by domestic pressures. Rent inflation persists amid structural housing constraints. Services costs remain elevated due to wage dynamics. In short, exchange-rate strength does little to address core domestic drivers.

The logic for further tightening rests on three pillars a stronger AUD cannot directly weaken. First, labor market remains tight, and wage growth continues to support services inflation. Second, productivity gains remain modest. Without stronger output per worker, higher wages feed directly into higher prices. Third, fiscal policy still provides tailwinds, offsetting some monetary restraint.

Market pricing continues to assign high probability to another 25bps hike in May, pending Q1 CPI confirmation. Unless data show abrupt cooling in labor market or services pricing, the “shadow hike” narrative is unlikely to displace tightening bias.

Technically, some more consolidations would likely be seen in AUD/USD below 0.7146 short term top. But downside should be contained above 0.6896 support to bring up trend resumption. The real test lies in 0.72 zone, with 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213. Decisive break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.7516. But that break through 0.72 might need either a shift in expectations for more than one RBA hike this year, or more Fed rate cuts.

Key Highlights

• Gold started a fresh increase above $4,850 and $5,000.
• A major contracting triangle is forming with resistance at $5,140 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil faces resistance near $63.85 and $64.50.
• USD/JPY retested the 152.25 support zone and started a consolidation phase.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold remained well bid above $4,650 against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and was able to settle above the $4,850 resistance zone.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,598 swing high to the $4,401 low. The price even surpassed the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) and remained well above the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).

However, the bears are now active near the $5,120 and $5,140 levels. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with resistance at $5,140. The next major resistance sits near $5,250.

A clear move above $5,250 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $5,315 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,598 swing high to the $4,401 low. The main target for the bulls could be $5,500.

If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $4,960 level. The first major support sits at $4,820, below which the price might slide to $4,680. The main support sits at $4,550. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,440 or even $4,400 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price recovered above $65.00 before the bears took a stand near $65.50.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• UK Claimant Count Change for Jan 2026 – Forecast 22.8K, versus 17.9K previous.
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate for Dec 2025 (3M) – Forecast 5.1%, versus 5.1% previous.
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for Feb 2026 – Forecast 6.0, versus 7.7 previous.