Sample Category Title

GBP/USD - 1.2407

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2417

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2487

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2567

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2543

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.2470, stopped at 1.2435

Position : - Long at 1.2470

Target :  -

Stop : - 1.2435

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.2485, Target: 1.2365, Stop: 1.2520

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has dropped sharply since yesterday, suggesting top has been formed at 1.2616 and the selloff from there is likely to bring retracement of recent upmove, hence further weakness to 1.2360-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2109-1.2616) would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2335 support and reckon 1.2300-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold from here, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to turn short on recovery as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2486) should limit upside and bring decline. Above 1.2500-10 would defer but only break of previous support at 1.2539 would abort and signal the fall from 1.2616 has ended instead, bring rebound to 1.2560-65 first.

Stocks build on overnight gains as US consumer confidence rises

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Stocks build on overnight gains as US consumer confidence rises; China banks rally on earnings; Japan retail sales miss estimates

US Session Highlights

(US) FEB ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: -$64.8B V -$66.4BE (widest deficit in 22 months)

(US) FEB PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; RETAIL INVENTORIES M/M: 0.4% V 0.8% PRIOR

(US) JAN S&P / CASE-SHILLER 20-CITY M/M: 0.86% V 0.70%E; Y/Y: 5.73% V 5.60%E; HOUSE PRICE INDEX (HPI): 192.81 V 192.41 PRIOR

(US) House Republican lawmakers reportedly seeking ways to force vote on full repeal of Obamacare through a discharge petition (would require 218 signatories)

(US) MAR RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 22 V 15E; Volume of new orders 26 v 24 prior

(US) MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 125.6 V 114.0E (highest since Dec 2000)

US markets on close: Dow +0.7%, S&P500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.6%

Best Sector in S&P500: Financials

Worst Sector in S&P500: Healthcare

Biggest gainers: DRI +9.3%, RHT +5.2%, CHK +4.5%, NBL +4.0%, MUR +3.9%

Biggest losers: MCK -2.9%, NEM -2.7%, FTR -2.0%, EW -1.5%, EVHC -1.4%

At the close: VIX 11.5 (-1.0 pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.30% (+3bps), 10-yr 2.41% (+4bps), 30-yr 3.01% (+3bps)

US movers afterhours

VRTX: Two Phase 3 Studies of the Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor Combination Treatment Met Primary Endpoints with Statistically SignificantImprovements in Lung Function (FEV1) in People with Cystic Fibrosis; +18.2% afterhours

RH: Reports Q4 $0.23 GAAP* v $0.05e, R$587M v $480Me; Guides Q1 $0.02-0.06 v +$0.56e, R$530-545M v $577Me; +15.8% afterhours

RTTR: Announces Lactose Intolerance Treatment, RP-G28, Demonstrated Efficacy and Clinically Meaningful Benefit in Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial; +15.4% afterhours

VRNT: Reports Q4 $0.90 v $0.86e, R$299.5M v $294Me; Guides FY18: Rev $1.14B with a range of +/- 2%; +7.5% afterhours

OLLI: Reports Q4 $0.39 v $0.35e, R$283.4M v $281Me; +1.1% afterhours

SONC: Reports Q2 $0.15 v $0.15e, R$100.2M v $107Me; -1.8% afterhours

DEPO: Announces cooperation agreement with Starboard Value; names Arthur Higgins as CEO; Guides Q1 Rev $95-100M v $113Me (2 est); -3.0% afterhours

PLAY: Reports Q4 $0.63 v $0.58e, R$270.2M v $271Me; Q4 SSS 3.2% v 3.7%e; FY16 SSS 3.3% v 3.1-3.6% prior forecast; -4.4% afterhours

Politics

(FR) Wife of French presidential candidate formally charged in fake jobs probe - French press

Asia Key economic data:

(JP) JAPAN FEB RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: 0.1% (4-month low) V 0.7%E

(KR) South Korea Apr Business Manufacturing Survey: 82 v 81 prior; Non-Manufacturing Survey: 80 v 77 prior

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Asian equity markets are modestly higher, tracking more pronounced bullish sentiment that followed a swift turnaround from the initial losses of the prior session. Investors continue to shrug the political stumbles of the Trump administration and focusing on improving US economic data - particularly the 16-year high in Consumer Confidence. Financials did particularly well as interest rates rose across the curve, while Gold came in back below 1,250 after a recent run.

In FX, USD majors were in more narrow ranges, particularly in Asian hours. The most notable pair was GBP/USD, which fell some 80pips from the highs to 1.2380 as PM May signed the letter invoking Article 50 that will start Brexit process. German press report indicated that German govt wants the talks to be completed within the 2-year time limit. Separately, USD/JPY pair remained supported above ¥111 and NZD/USD found buyers below $0.70.

Economic calendar was once again light, limited to lower than expected growth in Japan retail sales for Feb. Recall Japan consumption was flat in Q4, and it remains to be seen whether Capex growth can sustain the economy.

In China, AgBank and BoCom released their FY16 results overnight. BoCom profits topped consensus at CNY67.2B v CNY65.4Be and NPL raio was marginally higher at 1.52% v 1.51% y/y, sending shares up 1%. AgBank was up just under 1% as FY16 results saw Net rise CNY184B v CNY181By/y, Rev fall to CNY510B v CNY541B y/y, and NPLs improve to 2.37% v 2.39% y/y. Both S&P and Moody's reports on China also warned about the risks of potential property market adjustment following recent runup in prices as interest rates rise and PBoC manages liquidity.

China

(CN) S&P: China debt overhand and property market adjustment, as well as US trade policies, among top Asia-Pacific risks

(CN) Moody's: China economy faces heightened risks from potential future property downturn

Japan

(JP) Japan LDP party panel proposes to develop long-range strike capability - press

(JP) BOJ's Sato: Reforms needed to raise inflation expectations; central bank does not impact inflation expectations as much as traditionally expected - speaking at Yale

Korea

(KR) South Korea Federation of Korean Industries (FKI): Business Survey Index (BSI) for Apr rises to 93.3 v 92.1 in Mar; 6-month high - Korean press

(KR) South Korea Fin Min Yoo said to seek meeting with India - Korean press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:30ET)

Nikkei flat, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, ASX200 +0.9%, Kospi flat

Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq +0.2%; Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.2%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:30ET)

EUR 1.0808-1.0826; JPY 111.03-111.33; AUD 0.7630-0.7660; NZD 0.6998-0.7018

Apr Gold -0.6% at $1,248/oz; May Crude Oil +0.5% at $48.59/brl; May Copper -0.2% at $2.67/lb

(US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +1.9M v +4.5M prior (8th build in the past 10 weeks)

SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 833.5 tonnes

iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,377 tonnes from 10,342 tonnes prior

(CN) PBoC skips open market operations for 4th straight session; Said to drain CNY70B v CNY70B prior

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8915 V 6.8782 PRIOR; 2nd straight weaker setting; Weakest setting since Mar 21st

(JP) BOJ lowers amount of 3-5-yr JGB in its daily operations to ¥380B from ¥400B

(AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 2.75% 2027 Bonds; avg yield: 2.8096%; bid-to-cover: 3.55x

Asia equities / Notables / movers by sector

Consumer discretionary: 305.HK Wuling Motors Holdings +1.4% (FY16 results); 210.HK Daphne International Holdings -3.7% (FY16 results); 489.HK Dongfeng Motor -1.5% (FY16 results); FXJ.AU Fairfax Media +0.9% (TPG may buy stake)

Financials: 656.HK Fosun International +0.4% (FY16 results); 3333.HK Evergrande Real Estate Group +7.1% (FY16 results); 3328.HK BoCom +1.0%; 1288.HK AgBank +0.8% (FY16 results)

Industrials: 1211.HK BYD Company -2.3%, 1133.HK Harbin Electric Co +1.7%, 285.HK BYD Electronic International -1.9%, 3898.HK Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric +1.0%, 1800.HK China Communications Construction -0.5% (FY16 results); 7012.JP Kawasaki Heavy Industries +2.9% (CLSA raises rating)

Technology: 6502.JP Toshiba Corporation +0.7% (SK Hynix offers investment); 700.HK Tencent Holding +0.9% (investment in Tesla)

Materials: 3983.HK China BlueChemical -0.4% (FY16 results); 347.HK Angang Steel +2.2%, 1618.HK Metallurgical Corporation of China +0.3% (FY16 results); EVN.AU Evolution -0.7%, RSG.AU Resolute Mining -1.1%, SBM.AU St Barbara -1.2% (Gold miners track North American peers lower)

Energy: 1193.HK China Resources Gas Group -4.2% (FY16 results); 5019.JP Idemitsu Kosan Co +2.7% (founding family opposes merger)

Healthcare: 2196.HK Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group -4.0% (FY16 results)

Utilities: 1071.HK Huadian Power International Corp -0.9% (FY16 results)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.17% against the USD and closed at 0.7633.

LME Copper prices declined 4.3% or $101.0/MT to $5774.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.1% or $2.5/MT to $1918.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7643, with the AUD trading 0.13% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7599, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7555. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7672, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7701.

Moving ahead, traders will await the release of Australia’s HIA new home sales data for February, slated overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/USD - 1.0793

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0807

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0829

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0869

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0834

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.0800, Target: 1.0900, Stop: 1.0765

Position : - Long at 1.0800

Target :  - 1.0900

Stop : - 1,0765

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.0800, Target: 1.0900, Stop: 1.0765

Position : - Long at 1.0800

Target :  - 1.0900

Stop : - 1.0765

Although the single currency has remained under pressure after overnight selloff and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent upmove, reckon downside would be limited and bring rebound later, above 1.0825-30 would suggest and intra-day low is formed but break of 1.0845-50 is needed to add credence to this view, bring test of resistance at 1.0873 first. Only break of 1.0873 would signal the retreat from 1.0903 has ended, bring retest of this level, above there would extend recent rise to 1.0930-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1300-1.0340) but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0955-60 and price should falter below 1.0990-00.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.0800. Only below support at 1.0760 would abort and signal top has been formed at 1.0906, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.0730 but 1.0719 support should remain intact. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8639; (P) 0.8663; (R1) 0.8709; More...

The strong rebound from 0.8604 and break of 0.8699 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 0.8786 is completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 0.8786 first. Break will extend the rise from 0.8402 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922. Overall, price actions from 0.8303 are forming a corrective pattern, as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. We'd expect strong resistance above 0.8922 to limit upside and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.46% against the USD and closed at 1.0814.

In economic news, Italy’s seasonally adjusted industrial sales slid 3.5% on a monthly basis in January, following a revised rise of 2.5% in the previous month. Also, the nation’s seasonally adjusted industrial orders dropped 2.9% MoM in January, compared to a revised rise of 3.0% in the prior month.

The greenback traded higher against most of its major peers, on the back of robust economic data in the US.

Data revealed that the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly jumped to a level of 125.6 in March, surging to its highest level in more than sixteen years, as consumers expressed greater optimism regarding the short-term outlook for business, jobs and personal income prospects. Market participants expected the index to fall to a level of 114.0, compared to a revised reading of 116.1 recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the nation’s advance goods trade deficit narrowed more-than-anticipated to a level of $64.8 billion in February, as imports dropped sharply, compared to a revised deficit of $68.8 billion in the preceding month, while investors expected the nation’s goods trade deficit to narrow to a level of $66.4 billion. Also, the nation’s flash wholesale inventories rebounded 0.4% in February, compared to a revised drop of 0.3% in the previous month, whereas markets were anticipating for an advance of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, reinforced the case for two more rate hikes this year, stating that he expects the Fed to raise interest rates two more times this year.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0818, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0785, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0753. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0861, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0905.

Moving ahead, traders look forward to Germany’s import price index for February, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US pending home sales for February and weekly mortgage applications data, slated to release later in the day, will be on investor’s radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.84% against the USD and closed at 1.2456, amid heightened anxiety as the UK Government is set to launch Britain's formal exit from the European Union (EU).

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2415, with the GBP trading 0.33% lower against the USD from yesterday's close, with investors looking forward to the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, as she is set to invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty later today, with a formal notification of Britain's intent to leave the Euro-bloc, kicking off a two-year period of Brexit negotiations.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2328, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2241. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2549, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2683.

Going ahead, market participants look forward to UK's consumer credit and mortgage approvals data, both for February, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.45% against the JPY and closed at 111.10.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.22, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Japan's seasonally adjusted retail trade rose less-than-anticipated by 0.2% MoM in February, compared to a revised similar rise in the previous month. Markets were anticipating retail trade to rise 0.3%. On the contrary, the nation's large retailer's sales eased 2.7% in February, surpassing market expectations for a fall of 1.8% and following a drop of 1.1% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.48, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.73. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.64, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.05.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0705; (R1) 1.0720; More...

EUR/CHF remains bounded in range of 1.0683/0761 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. We'd slightly favoring the case of trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. And, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.0683 minor support holds. Above 1.0761 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.0823 resistance first. Break will re-affirm the case of trend reversal and target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9916, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9852, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9787. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9958, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9999.

Ahead in the day, market participants will closely watch Switzerland's ZEW survey of expectations index for March, the UBS consumption indicator for February as well as the KOF spring economic forecast report.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.