Sample Category Title

The long position entered in EUR/JPY at 121.30 the previous week was stopped last week at 120.80, the pair extended recent decline and fall to as low as 119.32 late last week.

We also entered in short position in USD/CAD at 1.3400 last week, however, as the greenback found support at 1.3316 and recovered, we exited the position today at 1.3368 with small profit.

Two long positions were entered in AUD/USD and EUR/GBP last week at 0.7645 and 0.8620 respectively and  the positions are still holding at the moment.

In short, 4 positions were entered last week with total loss of 18 points and the positions are listed below.

17 Mar: EUR/JPY - Long at 121.30, exited at 120.80 (- 50 points)
22 Mar: AUD/USD - Long at 0.7645,
22 Mar: USD/CAD - Short at 1.3400, exited at 1.3368 (+ 32 points)
23 Mar: EUR/GBP - Long at 0.8620,

|                 AUD         EUR/JPY          EUR/GBP         CAD
Jan             - 15             -275                - 35            -120
Feb           + 140            -17                  - 40             +11
Mar            + 20            +115              + 32       
Apr                  
May          
Jun           
Jul            
Aug          
Sep              
Oct           
Nov         
Dec                                                                                                                                               
Y-T-D        + 145           - 177               - 43            + 57

We ventured long in USD/JPY at 112.55 and clearly we underestimated the strength of recent selloff, the position was stopped at 112.20 and dollar tumbled to as low as 110.11 earlier today before recovering.

No position was entered among other currency pairs.

In short, only 1 position was entered among all 4 currency pairs with total loss of 35 points and the position is listed below:

21 Mar : USD/JPY - Long at 112.55, exited at 112.20 (- 35 points)

|                 JPY             EUR             CHF            GBP

Jan          + 167             - 85              - 10            + 50
Feb          + 200            +150             +93            - 59
Mar              -43                -35                  0           - 35
Apr          
May         
Jun          
Jul           
Aug         
Sep             
Oct         
Nov        
Dec                                                                                               
Y-T-D       + 324            + 25                +83           -44     

Gold has edged higher in the Monday session. In North American trade, gold is trading at $1254.84 per ounce. On the release front, there are no economic indicators in the US. We'll hear from two FOMC members – Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan. There are no US indicators until Tuesday, with the release of CB Consumer Confidence.

Donald Trump's stunning ascendancy to the presidency last November triggered an impressive rally by the US dollar. However, market euphoria over Trump's election win is long past. The inquiry into the Trump administration's links with Russia continues to make headlines, and is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has been in office for over two months, but he has yet to provide any details over even an outline of economic policy. Last week, Trump's proposed bill to change Obamacare was not even voted on, as the White House was unable garner enough support to pass the bill. This latest setback for the beleaguered Trump administration could increase market jitters and send the US dollar to lower levels.

Gold prices are sensitive to rate moves, so investors continue to look for clues about what the Federal Reserve has planned for the remainder of 2017. The Fed's rate statement and dot plot indicated that the Fed is looking at another two hikes in 2017, which would make three in total. This forecast was reiterated by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans earlier this week. Although one could make a strong case that three rate hikes in 2017 would be impressive, the markets appear disappointed, and would like four hikes, given the strong performance of the US economy. The Fed's cautious approach has reduced investors' appetite for risk, which has been good news for gold, a safe-haven asset.

West Texas crude has dipped below the $48 level on Monday. In the North American session, WTI crude futures are trading at $47.69. Brent Crude futures are trading at $50.90, as the Brent premium stands at $2.21. On the release front, there are no economic indicators in the US. We'll hear from two FOMC members - Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan. There are no US indicators until Tuesday, with the release of CB Consumer Confidence.

WTI crude has dropped to a low of $47.08 on Monday, close to its lowest level since the end of November. Crude has remained under pressure since last week's Crude Oil Inventories, which posted a strong surplus of 5.0 million barrels, well above expectations. The weekly indicator has recorded only two declines in 2017, as US oil drillers continue to enter the market and ratchet up US oil production. This, together with increased US shale production, has more than offset OPEC's production cuts. Last week, OPEC announced it was considering extending the production cut agreement by another 6 months, until the end of 2017.

Donald Trump's stunning ascendancy to the presidency last November triggered an impressive rally by the US dollar. However, market euphoria over Trump's election win is long past. The inquiry into the Trump administration's links with Russia continues to make headlines, and is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has been in office for over two months, but he has yet to provide any details over even an outline of economic policy. Last week, Trump's proposed bill to change Obamacare was not even voted on, as the White House could not garner enough support to pass the bill. This latest setback for the beleaguered Trump administration could increase market jitters and send the US dollar to lower levels.

GBP/USD has posted gains in the Monday, as the pair has hit 7-week highs. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2570. On the release front, it's a quiet start to the week. There are no UK events on the schedule. In the US, we'll hear from two FOMC members – Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan. There are no US indicators until Tuesday, with the release of CB Consumer Confidence.

Donald Trump's stunning ascendancy to the presidency last November triggered an impressive rally by the US dollar. However, market euphoria over Trump's election win is long past. The inquiry into the Trump administration's links with Russia continues to make headlines, and is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has been in office for over two months, but he has yet to provide any details over even an outline of economic policy. Last week, Trump's proposed bill to change Obamacare was not even voted on, as the White House could not garner enough support to pass the bill. This latest setback for the beleaguered Trump administration has boosted GBP/USD in the Monday session.

In the UK, last week's consumer indicators pointed to stronger spending and inflation. Retail Sales sparkled in February with a gain of 1.4%, its highest gain since October 2016. At the same time, for the three months to February, retail sales suffered their biggest slide since 2010. This points to an erosion in consumer spending due to the weak pound, which has fallen 16 percent since the Brexit vote last June. The weak currency and higher oil prices have also sent inflation higher. CPI climbed 2.3% in February, beating the forecast of 2.1%. This is a significant reading, as it surpassed the BoE's inflation target of 2.0% for the first time in three years. Higher inflation levels have increased speculation that the Bank of England, which has had a neutral stance on rate policy, could raise rates this year. BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent acknowledged that a rate hike was a possibility in 2017, and the BoE will be under further pressure to make a move if inflation continues to head upwards.

USD/CHF - 0.9833

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9837

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9864

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9932

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9921

Original strategy :

Sell at 0.9910, Target: 0.9800, Stop: 0.9945

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 0.9900, Target: 0.9800, Stop: 0.9935

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback only recovered to 0.9960 on Friday before meeting renewed selling interest and the subsequent selloff below previous support at 0.9861 adds credence to our bearish view that recent decline is still in progress and may extend weakness to 0.9810-15 (50% projection of 1.01710.9882 measuring from 0.9960), then 0.9795-00, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9770-75 (100% projection of 1.0171-0.9942 measuring from 1.0003), bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and we are looking to sell dollar on subsequent rebound as 0.9900-10 should limit upside. Only above said resistance at 0.9960 would abort and signal low is formed, bring retracement of recent decline towards indicated previous resistance at 1.0003.

GBP/USD - 1.2587

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2579

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2543

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2494

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2478

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2490, Target: 1.2600, Stop: 1.2455

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2490, Target: 1.2600, Stop: 1.2455

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has eased after rising to 1.2616 in NY morning, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove from 1.2109 is still in progress and upside bias remains for this move to extend further gain to 1.2635-40, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2670-80 and price should falter below previous resistance at 1.2706, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy cable on subsequent retreat. Only below support at 1.2469 (Friday’s low) would abort and signal top is formed, bring retracement of recent upmove towards previous support at 1.2424 which is likely to hold from here.

EUR/USD - 1.0886

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0880

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0849

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0793

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0787

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0800, Target: 1.0900, Stop: 1.0765

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0800, Target: 1.0900, Stop: 1.0765

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency also opened higher today on dollar’s broad-based weakness and the the subsequent rally signals recent upmove is still in progress, hence bullishness remains for further gain to 1.0900 and possibly 1.0930-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1300-1.0340), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0955-60 and price should falter below 1.0990-00, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on subsequent pullback as 1.0800-10 should limit downside. Only below support at 1.0760 would abort and signal top is formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.0730 but 1.0719 support should remain intact. 

USD/JPY - 110.54

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 110.34

Kijun-Sen level                  : 110.73

Ichimoku cloud top             : 111.13

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 111.11

Original strategy  :

Sell at 111.00, Target: 110.00, Stop: 111.35

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 111.00, Target: 110.00, Stop: 111.35

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback opened lower earlier today and has dropped again, adding credence to our bearish view that recent selloff is still in progress and may extend weakness to 110.00, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 109.70-75 and reckon 109.50 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 111.00 should limit upside. Above 111.30-35 would risk test of resistance at 111.48 but break there is needed to signal low is formed instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 111.75-80 first.

EUR/GBP - 0.8652

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy  :

Bought at 0.8620, Target: 0.8750, Stop: 0.8580

Position : - Long at 0.8620

Target :  - 0.8750

Stop : - 0.8580

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 0.8620, Target: 0.8720, Stop: 0.8600

Position : - Long at 0.8620

Target :  - 0.8720

Stop : - 0.8600

 
Although the single currency retreated after meeting resistance at 0.8676, as long as support at 0.8605 (last week’s low) holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound, a break of said resistance at 0.8700 would bring test of 0.8727, above there would suggest low is formed, then gain to 0.8760 would follow, break there would suggest the pullback from 0.8788 has ended, bring retest of this level, a breach there would extend the rise from 0.8403 low to 0.8800 and later 0.8825-30.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.8620. A firm break below 0.8605 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8422-0.8788) would defer and suggest top has possibly been formed at 0.8788, risk test of 0.8560-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but support at 0.8547 should remain intact. 

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.