Sample Category Title

USD/CAD - 1.3383

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term down

 
Original strategy       :

Buy at 1.3300, Target: 1.3450, Stop: 1.3240

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop: -

 
New strategy             :

Buy at 1.3300, Target: 1.3450, Stop: 1.3240

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:-

The greenback has eased after rising to 1.3437 late last week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.3345-50 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3300 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.3437 would extend recent upmove from 1.2969 low to resistance t 1.3461 but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3500-10 and price should falter well below 1.3558, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy on pullback as 1.3300-10 should limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 1.3250 would defer and risk correction to indicated previous resistance at 1.3212 (now support) but only break there would suggest top is formed, bring weakness to 1.3165 first.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

USD/CHF - 1.0089

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback ran into resistance at 1.0135 and has retreated again after faltering below resistance at 1.0146, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and weakness to 1.0060-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0009-1.0146 and previous support), however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0035-40 and price should stay well above support at 1.0009, bring rebound later.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.0120 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.0146, bring retreat later. Only above said resistance at 1.0146 would extend recent erratic rise from 0.9661 to 1.0170-80 but reckon 1.0200 would hold from here. 

GBP/USD - 1.2275

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2220, Target: 1.2340, Stop: 1.2185

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2220, Target: 1.2340, Stop: 1.2185

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable dropped to as low as 1.2214 late last week, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would be seen with mild upside bias for recovery to 1.2315-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2214), above there would extend gain to 1.2347 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous support), however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2375-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2214) and bring another decline later. 

In view of this, we are looking to turn long on dips but one should take profit on such a rebound. Below said support at 1.2214 would extend recent decline from 1.2706 top to 1.2200, then towards 1.2170-75 but reckon 1.2150 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for another rebound. 

GBP/USD has inched lower in the Monday session. Currently GBP/USD is trading at 1.2270. On the release front, there are no major events ont the schedule. BOE Deputy Governor Charlotte Hogg will speak at an event in Lincoln and we'll get a look at BRC Retail Sales. The US will release Factory Orders, with the indicator expected to dip to 1.1%

Will the Fed press the rate trigger next week? Market sentiment continues to heat up regarding a rate move in March, buoyed by strong economic data. Federal Reserve policymakers continue to sound hawkish about a rate move, as the Fed holds its policy meeting on March 15. FOMC members William Dudley and John Williams recently hinted at an imminent hike by the Fed. Dudley said the case for a hike is compelling, while Williams noted that a rate increase will be up for "serious consideration" at the March policy meeting. The markets are taking these statements at face value, sending the odds of a March move soaring upwards. The likelihood of a rate this month has jumped to 80%, compared to 33% just a week ago. Why the huge jump in odds? One reason is that policymakers are now saying they won't wait for Donald Trump to outline tax reform or other economic packages before making a monetary move. This is a significant departure from a few weeks ago, when the Fed sent out signals that it would stay on the sidelines until it had a clearer picture of the economic stance of the new administration.

The pound's troubles continue, as the currency trades below the 1.23 line. On Friday, GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.2214, marking its lowest level since January 17. The pound responded negatively to key PMI reports. Manufacturing and Services PMIs both missed expectations in February. The softer Services PMI indicates more cautious spending by British consumers, who remain concerned about the ramifications of Brexit on the economy and their pocketbooks.

EUR/USD - 1.0596

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency rallied after holding above previous support at 1.0493, dampening our bearishness and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for marginal gain, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0660-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0829-1.0493) and resistance at 1.0680 should hold, price should falter well below 1.0700-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.0570-75 would prolong consolidation and risk weakness to 1.0540-45, however, support at 1.0493 should remain intact. Only a drop below this support would revive bearishness and signal recent decline from 1.0829 has resumed for further selloff to 1.0470 and then towards previous support at 1.0454.

USD/CAD has inched higher in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading slightly below the 1.34 line. On the release front, it's a very quiet start to the week. There are no Canadian events on the schedule. The US will release Factory Orders, with the indicator expected to dip to 1.1%. On Tuesday, Canada releases trade balance and Ivey PMI.

The US dollar posted broad gains last week, and the Canadian dollar also took it on the chin, dropping 1.9 percent. Canadian GDP expanded 0.3% in January, matching the forecast. Still, this figure was lower than the December reading of 0.4%. As expected, the Bank of Canada held the benchmark rate at 0.50%, but a pessimistic rate statement weighed on the Canadian currency last week. The rate statement noted that the economy faces "significant uncertainties", including a lack of clarity over Donald Trump's economic agenda. Trump has called for the NAFTA trade agreement to be scrapped, although he has since backtracked and said that he only wanted to "tweak" the provisions that affect Canada-US trade. Still, Trump's protectionist stance could hit the Canadian economy hard, as Canada sends 80% of its exports to its southern border. Even if the US does not alter NAFTA, the US could slap import duties on Canadian products, which would have negative ramifications for the Canadian economy.

As the US economy continues to fire on all four cylinders, market sentiment has heated up regarding a Fed rate hike. Federal Reserve policymakers continue to sound hawkish about a rate move, as the Fed holds its policy meeting on March 15. FOMC members William Dudley and John Williams recently hinted at an imminent hike by the Fed. Dudley said the case for a hike is compelling, while Williams noted that a rate increase will be up for "serious consideration" at the March policy meeting. The markets are taking these statements at face value, sending the odds of a March move soaring upwards. The likelihood of a rate this month has jumped to 80%, compared to 33% just a week ago. Why the huge jump in odds? One reason is that policymakers are now saying they won't wait for Donald Trump to outline tax reform or other economic packages before making a monetary move. This is a significant departure from a few weeks ago, when the Fed sent out signals that it would stay on the sidelines until it had a clearer picture of the economic stance of the new administration.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0537; (P) 1.0580 (R1) 1.0663; More.....

EUR/USD breached 1.0630 minor resistance today but fails to sustain so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0630 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.0828 is completed. Also, rise from 1.0339 could possibly be resuming. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. On the downside, below 1.0493 support will affirm the case that fall from 1.0828 is resuming the larger down trend. In that case, intraday bias will be back to the downside for resting 1.0339 low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2236; (P) 1.2268; (R1) 1.2322; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2213 temporary low. We're still maintaining a bearish view on the pair. That is, consolidation pattern from 1.1946 should have completed with three waves to 1.2705 already. Hence, current recovery should be limited by 1.2382 support resistance and bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.2213 will target 1.1946/86 support zone. Break of 1.1946 will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. Nonetheless, on the upside, above 1.2382 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2569.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY - 113.82

Original strategy  :

Sell at 114.35, Target: 113.35, Stop: 114.70

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 114.35, Target: 113.35, Stop: 114.70

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback rose briefly to 114.75, the subsequent sharp retreat suggests top is possibly formed there on Friday, hence consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement of last week’s rise to 111.69, hence weakness to 113.47 support is likely, below there would bring further fall to 113.20-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-114.75), however, downside would be limited to 113.00 and 112.84-86 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on recovery for such move as 114.40-50 should limit upside, bring another decline. Only above said resistance at 114.75 would abort and signal the rise from 111.69 has resumed and extend gain to 114.96 (previous resistance) but price should falter well below resistance at 115.38.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0052; (P) 1.0094; (R1) 1.0116; More.....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 1.0145 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral first. The lost of momentum after hitting 1.0145 is dampening the bullish case a bit. But still, as 1.0008 minor support holds, further rise is mildly in favor in the pair. Above 1.0145 will target a test on 1.0342 key resistance. Based on neutral medium term outlook, we'd be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. On the downside, break of 1.0008, however, will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.