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USD/JPY - 116.84

USD/JPY – Wave V of larger degree circle V has possibly ended at 75.31 and major correction has commenced and already met indicated target at 125.00.

The greenback only slipped to 115.07 before finding renewed buying interest (we recommended to buy at 114.80 and missed the entry), suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen and gain to 118.00 is likely, however, break of resistance at 118.61-66 is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 119.50-55 (76.4% retracement of 125.86-99.01) but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 120.00 and price should falter well below previous chart resistance at 121.69, bring retreat later.

Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding (indicated upside target at 125.00 had been met) for gain towards 127.00 level. In the event dollar drops below support at 99.01, this would confirm medium term decline from 125.86 top (2015 high) has resumed for subsequent weakness to 98.00 and possibly 97.00.

Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 125.00 had been met and gain to 127.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 130.00.

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 116.00 and said support at 115.07 should contain weakness, bring another rise later. A drop below 115.07 would suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to support at 114.74-77 first, then 113.90-00 but reckon downside would be limited to 113.13 and 112.87 should remain intact, bring another upmove later.

Recommendation: Buy at 116.00 for 118.00 with stop below 115.00.

On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to (indicated upside target at 122.00 and 125.00 had been met), the retreat from 125.86 suggests wave A of major correction has ended there and wave B correction back to 99.00, then 95.00 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 90.00, bring another rebound in wave C next year.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.02; (P) 143.53; (R1) 144.10; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 122.36 is seen as a corrective move. Below 142.16 will affirm the case that it's completed at 148.42. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 140.62) and below. Break of 148.42 will extend the rise from 122.36. But we'd expect strong resistance from 150.43 long term fibonacci level to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 195.86 top (2015 high) should have made a medium term bottom at 122.36 after hitting 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. Rise from there is now expected to develop into a medium term corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.36; (P) 122.90; (R1) 123.69; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 124.08 continues. Overall, further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. As rise from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective pattern, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 120.22).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8538; (P) 0.8564; (R1) 0.8596; More...

EUR/GBP rises strongly today but stays below 0.8666 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8685 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring further rise to 61.8% retracement at 0.8922 and above. On the downside, below 0.8449 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8303 first. Break there will extend the whole fall from 0.9304. In that case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at around 0.8116.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8243) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4393; (P) 1.4431; (R1) 1.4463; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.4322 will target 1.4702 low first. Break of 1.4072 will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.4880 resistance will indicate that such correction from 1.6587 is completed and turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5094 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0699; (P) 1.0715; (R1) 1.0732; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.0677 continues. Price actions from 1.1198 are seen a corrective pattern that is still unfolding. Below 1.0677 will target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3187; (P) 1.3227; (R1) 1.3277; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 1.3080 support next. As noted before, price actions from 1.2460 are viewed as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.3080 will indicate that it's completed and turn outlook bearish for retesting 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3330 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again with focus back on 1.3588/98 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is possibly finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7269; (P) 0.7312; (R1) 0.7335; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is mixed up as the pair defended key support level at 0.7144. Nonetheless, deeper fall is in favor a long as 38.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394 holds, which is close to the falling 55 day EMA. Firm break of 0.7144 will confirm our bearish view that corrective pattern from 0.6826 has completed and larger down trend is resuming for another low. Though, sustained trading above 0.7394 will turn focus back to 0.7777/7833 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0497; (P) 1.0558 (R1) 1.0591; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0339 continues. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0117; (P) 1.0149; (R1) 1.0208; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.0342 continues. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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