Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7339; (P) 0.7361; (R1) 0.7392; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7158 extends. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394 holds, which is close to the falling 55 day EMA, outlook stays cautiously bearish. Below 0.7287 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Firm break of 0.7144 will confirm our bearish view that corrective pattern from 0.6826 has completed and larger down trend is resuming for another low. Though, sustained trading above 0.7394 will turn focus back to 0.7777/7833 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2099; (P) 1.2185; (R1) 1.2246; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.2106 and intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2432 resistance and bring another decline. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.2774 and larger down trend is possibly resuming. This is supported by the rejection from 55 day EMA. Below 1.2106 will target 1.1946 support. Break there will confirm this bearish case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0604; More.....

EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.0339 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.18; (P) 115.76; (R1) 116.33; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation pattern from 118.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 114.76 support intact, outlook stays bullish with further rally expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.12) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0125; (P) 1.0151; (R1) 1.0192; More.....

USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0342 and intraday bias stays neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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US equities closed mixed overnight as markets await president-elect Donald Trump's first post election press conference. DJIA continued to struggle in tight range below 20000 handle and closed down -31.85 pts, or -0.16%, at 19855.53. S&P 500 closed completely flat for the first time in 9 years, at 2268.9. On the other hand, NASDAQ closed at 4th straight record at 5551.82, up 20 pts, or 0.36%. 10 year yield was relatively unchanged, closed up 0.003 at 2.379. Dollar index is trying to recover and is back above 102, comparing to last week's low at 101.30, but lacks momentum. In other markets, gold is staying firm as recent rebound is still in progress and is pressing 1190 handle. WTI crude oil dropped sharply overnight to as low as 50.71 and is trying to defend 50 handle.

Trump will hold the long awaited press conference at 11am eastern time today in New York today. It should be noted against the rallies in stocks, yield and Dollar after US election were built on expectation on Trump's expansive policies. But it's clear that markets turned cautious since the start of the year as his inauguration on January 20 approaches. There have been continuous bits of comments, including his tweets, relevant or irrelevant to the economy. But Trump has yet deliver any clear picture on what he will exactly as he takes office. Reactions in the market could be strong if he delivers any surprises today.

Elsewhere, Japan leading index rose to 102.7 in November, above expectation of 102.6. UK data will be the main focus in the calendar today. Trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, construction output and NIESR GDP estimate will be released.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0125; (P) 1.0151; (R1) 1.0192; More.....

USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0342 and intraday bias stays neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Economic Indicators Update

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2099; (P) 1.2185; (R1) 1.2246; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.2774 is in progress for 1.1946 low. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.2774 and larger down trend is possibly resuming. This is supported by the rejection from 55 day EMA. Decisive break of 1.1946 will confirm this bearish case. Meanwhile, break of 1.2432 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2774 is completed and correction from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0554 (R1) 1.0599; More.....

EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.0339 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0129; (P) 1.0163; (R1) 1.0185; More.....

USD/CHF's consolidation pattern from 1.0342 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.61; (P) 116.39; (R1) 117.72; More...

USD/JPY's consolidation from 118.65 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.00) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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