Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4149; (P) 1.4249; (R1) 1.4318; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.4072 low. Break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.On the upside, above 1.4322s support turned resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0711; (P) 1.0723; (R1) 1.0743; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in the consolidation pattern from 1.0677 and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1198 are seen a corrective pattern that is still unfolding. Below 1.0677 will target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3100; (P) 1.3196; (R1) 1.3275; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3598 resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3080 key support level. Decisive break there will confirm completion of whole corrective rise from 1.2460 and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper decline would be seen to retest 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3293 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.3588/98 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is possibly finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7371; (P) 0.7421; (R1) 0.7490; More...

The rebound from 0.7158 extends higher and strong break of 28.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394 suggests that fall from 0.7777 is completed. Intraday bias stays on the upside and further rally would now be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.7541 and above. At this point, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7351 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2074; (P) 1.2173; (R1) 1.2308; More...

GBP/USD rebounds after dipping to 1.2036 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Deeper fall is still expected as long as 1.2432 resistance holds. Below 1.2036 will target a test on 1.1946 low first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2432 will suggest that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0483; (P) 1.0552 (R1) 1.0652; More.....

EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.0339/0652 and intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0078; (P) 1.0162; (R1) 1.0224; More.....

USD/CHF is staying in the consolidation pattern from 1.0342 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More...

USD/JPY's fall and break of 114.76 support indicates short term topping at 118.65. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 118.65 will target at test on 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Dollar traded broadly lower while stocks struggled in tight range as markets are dissatisfied with the lack of clarity on economic policies at president-elect Donald Trump's first post election press conference. DJIA gained 98.75 pts, or 0.50%, to close at 19954.28, still lacks buying to push through 20000 handle. S&P 500 rose 6.42 pts, or 0.28%, to close at 2275.32, kept below recent high at 2282.10. Dollar index had a volatile day yesterday, jumping to as high as 102.95 but then reversed and dipped to as low as 101.28, now back at 101.50. Gold rode on Dollar weakness and extended recent rebound, set to take on 1200 handle today. WTI crude oil also rebounded and is trading above 52 for the moment. In the currency markets, Yen is clearly strengthening on falling yield but is overwhelmed by the strength in Aussie. Sterling and Dollar remain the two weakest major currency for the week.

In UK, BoE governor Mark Carney hinted that the central bank could raise economic forecast in the quarter inflation report to be published next month. He noted that "recent data would be consistent with some further upgrade of the forecast but that process has not yet started." Regarding the risk of Brexit to financial stability, Carney noted that "there are greater financial stability risks on the continent in the short term, for the transition, than there are for the UK." And he urged that financial institutions in EU countries to "think very carefully about the transition from where you are today to where the new equilibrium will be."

Meanwhile, ECB president Mario Draghi urged oversight of UK's clearing activities even after Brexit. Draghi noted that "It will be important to find solutions that at least preserve, or ideally enhance, the current level of supervision and oversight." ECB spokes man Rolf Benders said that "the location of clearing houses for euro payment and settlement services after the U.K. leaves the European Union will depend on details of the exit agreement."

On the data front, Japan current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.80T in November. Eurozone industrial production and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are the main features in European session. US will release jobless claims and import price index later today. Canada will release new housing price index.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More...

USD/JPY's fall and break of 114.76 support indicates short term topping at 118.65. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 118.65 will target at test on 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Economic Indicators Update

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.18; (P) 115.76; (R1) 116.33; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation pattern from 118.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 114.76 support intact, outlook stays bullish with further rally expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.12) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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