Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8670; (P) 0.8708; (R1) 0.8763; More...

Intraday bias in EUR./GBP stays neutral for the moment. Another rise is expected as long as 0.8449 minor support holds. Rebound from 0.8303 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 0.9304. Above 0.8764 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 and above. We'll expect strong resistance above 0.8922 to limit upside and bring another fall. On the downside, below 0.8449 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8303 first. Break there will extend the whole fall from 0.9304. In that case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at around 0.8116.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8243) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4149; (P) 1.4249; (R1) 1.4318; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.4072 low. Break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.On the upside, above 1.4322 support turned resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0708; (P) 1.0728; (R1) 1.0746; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in the consolidation pattern from 1.0677 and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1198 are seen a corrective pattern that is still unfolding. Below 1.0677 will target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7437; (P) 0.7477; (R1) 0.7525; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as the rebound from 0.7158 extends. Further rise would be seen through 61.8% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7541. At this point, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7351 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3053; (P) 1.3118; (R1) 1.3207; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Prior break of 1.3080 completed a double top pattern (1.3588, 1.3598) and indicates reversal. Fall from 1.3598 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 and should target 1.2460 low next. On the upside, break of 1.3293 is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 1.3598. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is like finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would now likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0561; (P) 1.0622 (R1) 1.0674; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 1.0339 short term bottom would target 1.0872 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, below 1.0453 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend towards parity.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2210; (R1) 1.2268; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Deeper fall is still expected as long as 1.2432 resistance holds. Below 1.2036 will target a test on 1.1946 low first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2432 will suggest that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.80; (P) 114.65; (R1) 115.56; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. The decline from 118.65 would extend to 55 day EMA (now at 113.22) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0078; (P) 1.0162; (R1) 1.0224; More.....

USD/CHF breached 1.0056 support brief but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first as consolidation from 1.0342 is still in progress. At this point, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 1.0019 support and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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Dollar recovers mildly towards the end of the week as supported by comments from Fed officials. Fed chair Janet Yellen said that the economy is "doing quite well" and there are no serious short term obstacles. She noted "unemployment has now reached a low level, the labor market is generally strong and wage growth is beginning to pick up." Inflation has moved up and is "pretty close" to 2% target. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans expected that president-elect Donald Trump's stimulus policies to "increase growth by a couple of tenths over the next two years." And policymakers "look forward to refining that when we actually see proposals that are moving forward and likely to be implemented." A improvements in the economic outlook materializes, US would need "less accommodation". He also said earlier in the month that three rate hikes this year is "not implausible".

Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker said that the US economy is "starting 2017 off on a good foot". He noted that "the labor market is strong, and we're creating jobs at a good pace." Besides, "inflation is moving back up to our 2% goal and growth is solid." And Harker believed that "three modest rate hikes" are "appropriate for the coming year" if the economy stays on track. On the other hand, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard thought that president-elect Donald Trump's policies will not have much impact this year. And Bullard believed that one hike is appropriate. Nonetheless, he also noted that Fed "may be in a better position" to reduce the size of its balance sheet.

Released from China, trade surplus narrowed to USD 40.8b in December, smaller than expectation of USD 47.6b. Exports rose 6.1% yoy while imports rose 3.1% yoy. In CNY terms, trade surplus widened to CNY 335b versus expectation of CNY 345b. Exports dropped -2.0% yoy while imports rose 2.7% yoy. Japan M2 rose 4.0% yoy in December. Looking ahead, European calendar is empty today. US will release retail sales, PPI, business inventories and U of Michigan sentiment later in US session.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0078; (P) 1.0162; (R1) 1.0224; More.....

USD/CHF breached 1.0056 support brief but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first as consolidation from 1.0342 is still in progress. At this point, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 1.0019 support and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Economic Indicators Update

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