Sample Category Title

'Factories are benefiting from greater consumer and business optimism since last fall's presidential election. Companies are spending more on big-ticket items such as industrial machinery, and Americans are buying cars at near-record levels. Overseas growth has spurred more exports.' - Forbes

US industrial production was unchanged last month, while market analysts anticipated an increase, official figures revealed on Friday. The Federal Reserve reported factory production came in at 0.0% in February, falling behind analysts' expectations for a gain of 0.3%. Meanwhile, January's initially reported drop of 0.3% was revised to a 0.1% fall. However, manufacturing production, which accounts for 75% of overall industrial output, posted a 0.5% increase in February that matched the preceding month's rise. A global economic recovery, stronger business investment in equipment and appropriate inventory levels allowed manufacturers to gain momentum over the last several months. The advance in manufacturing output was in line with analysts' forecasts. Data also showed utility output decreased 5.7%, following a 5.8% decline in January. The fall was mainly driven by unusually warm temperatures. Mining production rose 2.7% last month, boosted by oil and gas drilling. Business equipment output advanced 0.7% in February, compared to a 0.1% decline registered in the prior month, whereas production of construction supplies increased 1.3% after climbing 1.4% in January. Other data released on Friday showed mood of American shoppers jumped to 97.6 in March, according to the preliminary reading released by the University of Michigan.

The pair eventually cracked key barrier at 0.7739 (23 Feb high) on fresh acceleration higher today, after bulls paused on Thu/Fri, following strong post-Fed bullish acceleration.

Full retracement of 0.7739/0.7489 pullback signals that bulls from 0.7489 trough could extend towards next strong barrier at 0.7758/76 (highs of Aug / Nov 2016), where strong upside rejection occurred.

Hesitation at 0.7739 barrier could be anticipated on overbought slow stochastic, with dips to ideally hold above 0.7650/40 zone (base of thick hourly cloud, spanned between 0.7647 and 0.7678).

Res: 0.7745, 0.7758, 0.7776, 0.7800
Sup: 0.7695, 0.7661, 0.7647, 0.7629

EUR/JPY - 121.32

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Bought at 121.30, Target: 123.30, Stop: 120.70

Position: - Long at 121.30
Target: - 123.30
Stop: - 120.70

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 121.30, Target: 123.30, Stop: 120.80

Position: - Long at 121.30
Target:  - 123.30
Stop:- 120.80

Although the single currency slipped after meeting resistance at 122.26, as euro found support at 120.81 and has recovered, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for another bounce to said resistance at 122.26 but break there is needed to signal the retreat from 122.89 has ended, bring further gain to 122.60-65, then retest of 122.89. Looking ahead, above there would confirm recent rise from 118.24 has resumed and extend headway to 123.30-35, a sustained breach above this level would indicate signal early erratic fall from 124.10 top has ended at 118.24, bring further rise to 123.85-90 first.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 121.30. A break of said support at 120.81 would abort and risk correction of recent upmove to 120.45-50 but downside should be limited and price should stay well above support at 120.02 and bring another rise later. 

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

Fresh extension of last week's fall from 115.18 (14 Mar high) cracked target at 112.57 (Fibo 76.4% of 111.67/115.49 rally), maintaining firm bearish tone.

The pair was down nearly 2% last week, on strong bearish acceleration that commenced after upside rejection above daily cloud.

Daily studies are turning into full bearish setup, with close above 112.57 to generate bearish signal for full retracement of 111.67/115.49 upleg.

Oversold slow stochastic signals consolidation before bears resume, with base of thickening daily cloud at 113.65 (reinforced by daily Kijun-sen), expected to cap upticks.

Res: 113.25, 113.48, 113.65, 113.91
Sup: 112.44, 112.00, 111.67, 111.57

AUD/USD – 0.7723

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.7635, Target: 0.7775, Stop: 0.7575

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 0.7645, Target: 0.7800, Stop: 0.7585

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As aussie has risen again after brief pullback and broke above indicated previous resistance at 0.7741, suggesting recent upmove has resumed and bullishness remains for further gain to 0.7778 (last year’s high), however, break there is needed to retain upside bias and extend headway to 0.7840-50 but price should falter below 0.7900, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy aussie on subsequent pullback as 0.7633-36 should limit downside and bring another rise later. Only below previous resistance at 0.7592 would abort and signal top is formed instead, then further choppy trading would take place and risk is seen for pullback to 0.7530-40 but said support at 0.7491 should remain intact.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.

The Euro is consolidating under fresh recovery high at 1.0781, the highest since 06 Feb, with early Monday’s action holding bullish tone for renewed attempt at 1.0781 high and possible extension higher.

Psychological 1.0800 barrier marks initial target ahead of key point at 1.0827 (02 Feb high).

Strong bullish setup of daily MA’s that also formed multiple bull-crosses and the price holding well above broken daily cloud, support bullish scenario.

However, overbought slow stochastic suggests bulls might be delayed.

Thickening hourly cloud (spanned between 1.0693 and 1.0757) underpins near-term action and marks strong support, ahead of daily cloud top (currently at 1.0674), above which extended dips are expected to find support and keep bullish bias intact.

Res: 1.0781, 1.0800, 1.0827, 1.0872
Sup: 1.0757, 1.0726, 1.0693, 1.0676

'The euro lost a bit of its topside momentum as the French election risk is still a key concern for EUR.' – Stephan Innes, Market Pulse (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Monday's trading session the common European currency once more attempted to break higher against the Greenback. Previously, during Friday's trading session the currency pair failed to break through the resistance put up by the monthly R1, which is located at the 1.0772 level. It is most likely that the resistance will be broken soon, as the rate has moved and traded above it already more than once. In that case the pair would most likely surge to the next notable resistance level, as the weekly R1 is located at the 1.0814 level.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain bearish, as 59% of trader open positions are short, and 59% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'This [the overnight high] coupled with the strong daily closing suggest further upwards pressure and a daily closing above 1.2370 would indicate that GBP has moved into a bullish phase (with an immediate target of 1.2500).' – UOB Group (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook

The Cable managed to unexpectedly recover from its intraday low on Friday, ultimately ending trade in the green zone. Moreover, the British Pound was able to breach the immediate resistance, but with gains unable to climb over the 1.24 major level, where psychological resistance was strong. Friday's rally only confirmed the overall outlook, with the GBP/USD pair now being one step closer to reaching its main goal, namely the nine-month down-trend. The final obstacle ahead of this target is the 100-day SMA, which provides resistance circa 1.2415, but technical studies are unable to confirm the possibility of another positive outcome.

Traders' Sentiment

There are still 68% of traders being long the Sterling today, while all pending orders are now equally divided between buy and sell ones.

'There will likely be a two month hiatus before the next overt signalling on a Fed rate hike, enough of a time lag not to immediately undermine the favourable risk and carry environment.' – Alan Ruskin, Deutsche (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook

The Greenback suffered another loss on Friday, edging 60 pips lower, thus, providing the ascending channel's lower boundary with an additional confirmation. However, the USD/JPY pair remains under pressure and now risks breaking the pattern to the downside. The plunge could be severe, as the nearest significant area to reverse polarity rests only under 112.00. Even though technical indicators are unable to confirm the possibility of the positive outcome, from the technical perspective this outcome is more likely. The monthly PP and the 100-day SMA form immediate resistance around 113.20.

Traders' Sentiment

Bears retreated over the weekend, as now 56% of all open positions are long (previously 60%). At the same time, the number of orders to sell the US Dollar edged up from 55 to 47%.

'Spot gold is expected to test a resistance at $1,237 per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,243.' – Wang Tao, Reuters

Pair's Outlook

On Monday morning the yellow metal's price continued its way higher, as the bullion traded above the 1,230 mark. The commodity price is set to face the resistance put up by the monthly PP, which is located at the 1,236.39 level. The pivot point is a lone resistance, and it is highly possible that it will be broken. In that case the metal will be set to face another lone resistance level, as the weekly R1 is located at the 1,242.38 mark. On the other hand the metal might bounce off the monthly level of significance and retreat to the 20-day SMA, which is located at the 1,222.24 level.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders remain neutral bullish, as 51% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 66% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.