EUR/USD

The dollar received a vote of confidence late last week, advancing against most of its major rivals with the clear exception of the JPY, as data released during these last few days indicated a rebound in inflation and economic activity, whilst FED's head Yellen hawkish testimony before the Congress, boosted chances of a rate hike in March. The common currency, on the other hand, remained undermined by political woes, as adding to the upcoming elections were rising concerns about Greece, still struggling to meet austerity requirements to get bailouts. This upcoming week will start with a banking holiday in the US, anticipating some choppy trading across the board, although next Tuesday, the release of February preliminary PMIs figures in both economies could set the tone for the whole week.

The EUR/USD pair closed on Friday at 1.0610, pretty much flat when compared to its previous weekly close, and is technically poised to extend its decline during the upcoming days, given that in the daily chart, advances were contained by a bearish 100 DMA, around 1.0680, whilst the Momentum indicator maintains a strong bearish slope within negative territory, and the RSI indicator resumed its decline after a tepid upward correction, also developing within bearish levels. In the 4 hours chart, the price settled a few pips below a flat 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator turned flat around 44 and the Momentum indicator retreats from overbought readings, still above its 100 level. The key for the upcoming days is the Fibonacci support at 1.0565, as renewed selling interest below the level will open doors for an extension sub-1.0500. 

Support levels: 1.0590 1.0565 1.0520

Resistance levels: 1.0650 1.0680 1.0720

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair trimmed all of its previous week gains after a failed attempt to surge beyond 115.00, resuming the bearish trend that began with the year. The pair topped at 114.95 last Wednesday, when a hawkish FED's Yellen opened doors for a rate hike in March. And while US stocks surged to record highs, US yields were unable to hold on to gains, and finished the week near February lows. Also, supporting the yen is the ongoing political uncertainty in Europe and the US that at the end of the day pushes speculative interest into safe-haven assets. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that the pair is holding a few pips above its 100 DMA currently around 112.45, while a major Fibonacci support comes at 111.95. In the same chart, technical indicators have turned south around their mid-lines, but lack enough downward momentum to confirm a bearish extension. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the bearish bias is firmer, as indicators maintain their sharp bearish slopes within negative territory, whilst the price has settled below bearish 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest acting as dynamic resistance around 113.40.

Support levels: 112.45 112.10 111.60

Resistance levels: 113.00 113.40 113.85

GBP/USD

After spending the week struggling to regain the 1.2500 level, the GBP/USD pair plunged on Friday, following the release of much worse-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures. Sales declined 0.3% in January, while excluding fuel, rose by 0.2% in the month, well below market's expectations. Year-on-year, sales rose by 1.5% against the 3.4% advance expected, while ex fuel sales grew by just 2.6%. December readings suffered downward revisions, adding to evidence that rising inflation is finally affecting consumption in the UK. The daily chart for the pair shows that it settled below 1.2430, the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run, while technical indicators resumed their declines within negative territory. Early attempts to break higher were contained by a now modestly bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.2510. In the 4 hours chart, the price is also developing below its 20 SMA which converges with a horizontal 200 EMA around 1.2460, while the Momentum indicator turned lower within neutral territory, but the RSI heads south around 36, maintaining the risk towards the downside. February low at 1.2346, at the 50% retracement of the mentioned rally, is the level to break to confirm a new leg lower sub-1.2200 for these next few days.

Support levels: 1.2380 1.2345 1.2300

Resistance levels: 1.2430 1.2460 1.2510

GOLD

Spot gold closed with gains for a third consecutive week, although off its February highs as the dollar gained momentum ahead of the weekly close. The bright metal settled at $1,235.57 a troy ounce, posting a solid recover from a low of 1,1216,64, which followed Yellen's statement. The upward momentum seems to be slowing, as in the daily chart, the commodity has settled a double top around 1,244.00, with the neckline of the figure being the mentioned low, whilst technical indicators head modestly lower, within positive territory. A bullish 20 DMA offers support a few cents above the mentioned low, all of which suggests that bulls won't give up as long as the 1,215.00 region holds. In the 4 hours chart, the metal presents a bullish stance, as the 20 SMA heads north around 1,233.90, while indicators have pared their declines well above their mid-lines and after correcting overbought conditions. A break above 1,244.60, however, will favor an extension up to 1,255.10, the 61.8% retracement of the post-US election slide.

Support levels: 1,233.90 1,222.50 1,216.60

Resistance levels: 1,244.60 1,255.10 1,261.60

WTI CRUDE

Crude oil prices closed the week marginally lower but still within familiar ranges, with West Texas Intermediate futures settling at $53.73 a barrel. Rising US stocks and production offset the optimism surrounding the so far, successful OPEC's output cut, leaving the commodity directionless for one more week. News on Friday showed that the number of active oil rigs increased by 6, up to 597, the highest number since early October 2015. Ever since the OPEC announced its agreement, US rigs increased by 120. The technical picture for US crude futures remains neutral, as in the daily chart, the price rests above a flat 20 DMA, while technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the commodity also presents a neutral stance, as moving averages remain horizontal and within a tight range, whilst technical indicators continue hovering around their mid-lines with no certain directional strength.

Support levels: 53.00 52.60 52.00

Resistance levels: 54.40 55.20 55.70

DJIA

Wall Street advanced modestly on Friday, but it was enough for the three major indexes to end at all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 20,624.05, adding 4 points on Friday and 1.75% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 5,838.58, after adding 23 points or 0.41%, while the S&P finished at 2,351.16, after adding roughly 4 points on Friday. Within the Dow, Verizon Communications was the best performer, up 1.51%, followed by Boeing that added 1.11%. Energy and banking-related equities were in the losing side, with Exxon Mobil down 0.66% and JPMorgan Chase shedding 0.33%. Technically the daily chart shows that the index held above far above a bullish 20 DMA, whilst technical indicators have turned flat within overbought territory, limiting chances of a downward move. In the 4 hours chart, the benchmark stands above a bullish 20 SMA, the RSI indicator holds flat around 69, but the Momentum indicator diverges lower, heading sharply lower around 100 and presenting a bearish divergence still to be confirmed.

Support levels: 20,552 20,506 20,467

Resistance levels: 20,652 20,700 20,750

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 added 22 points or 0.30%, to close the week at 7,299.96, with food-related equities offsetting banks and mining equities´ declines, after Kraft Heinz Co. announced a merger proposal that Unilever decline. The bid was of £112 billion, the fourth-biggest in corporate history, resulting in Unilever adding 13.43% to top winners' list. Coca-cola followed through, up 4.03%. In the losing side, Standard Chartered was the worst performer, down 4.36%, followed by Rolls Royce that shed 3.97% and Royal Dutch Shell that closed 1.80% lower. From a technical point of view, the benchmark presents a bullish stance, as it is holding above a bullish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator heads higher within positive territory, and the RSI indicator consolidates around 64, this last reflecting the limited intraday ranges seen lately rather than suggesting upward exhaustion.

Support levels: 7,291 7,254 7,208

Resistance levels: 7,354 7,390 7,430

DAX

The German DAX closed flat at 11,757.02 last Friday, as the banking sector underperformed over growing uncertainty, while mining and energy equities also edged lower. Volkswagen was the worst performer, down 1.81%, while Deutsche Bank lost 1.16% and Commerzbank 1.15%. Encouraging earnings reports, on the other hand, provided net support to the index, which ended the week up by 0.77%. Technically, the index presents a neutral-to-bullish stance, given that in the daily chart, the benchmark held above a modestly bullish 20 SMA, but technical indicators continue to lack directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the index closed the week with a modest positive tone, as it settled a few points above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have entered positive territory, with clear upward slopes. A recovery beyond 11,800 will open doors for a retest of this year high at 11,891.

Support levels: 11,728 11,694 11,640

Resistance levels: 11,800 11,848 11,891

Risk Aversion Percolates

Markets oozed that distinctly risk-averse mindset on Friday, as jitters were apparent in numerous pockets of the market. One could almost sense the currency markets antipathy for risk as we entered week’s end. However, this is not too surprising given the current French election climate and just how consistently unpredictable President Trump has been on the policy front.

Bloomberg reports a new poll by IFOP which shows 65% of French want Fillon to drop from the Presidential race. Recall the French want conservative candidate Francois Fillon’s campaign is marred by Penelope -Gate to drop out of the presidential race. However, 88% of the French believe Fillon will stay in the contest until the vote.

US equity investors, on the other hand, appear immune to any market hiccup taking U.S. equities higher for the week as the Dow industrials extended its streak of record closes to seven sessions. However, with US Treasury yield backpedalling on Friday, softer bond yields likely helped the Dow squeak out those gains on Friday.

AS for today we typically expect a calm session during a US holiday, but in politically driven markets, I am not taking any holiday session lightly.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar has been on an incredible tear the past five weeks supported by a massive rally in Iron Ore and mellowing expectations of Fed rate hikes. However, the current “ death valley “ .77-7750 remains intact suggesting that investors continue to grow cautious of not only the long Aussie position overhang but also question the sustainability of iron ore prices. While the much-speculated correction in iron ore prices has yet to evolve, however, both China and US fiscal spending expectations should prevent prices from falling off the cliff, and likewise, we should not expect the Aussie dollar to fold up tent anytime soon.

On the carry trade front, this week’s Minutes of the recent RBA meeting will contain little new. However, Governor Lowe is slated to make two speeches this week which will be closely monitored by Aussie dealers. Given the recent strength in both employment and NAB business confidence, I think the tail risk would be for a more hawkish lean from the RBA than the market has priced in, but at a minimum, there’s little impetus for the RBA to veer from its current neutral tack. On the other side of the carry, the Federal Reserve continues to serve up their best version of a waffle, as forever cautions Dr Yellen again used the Fed’s time -honoured use of verbal gymnastics to avoid any direct answer to whether or not the Feds are close to flipping the interest rate switch.

Relatively quiet open as traders digest the weekend news. One of the key regional pieces is on the diplomacy front. Specifically, the China -US olive branch exchange appears to be gearing up as over the weekend China hit North Korea with a massive blow by suspending its coal imports from North Korea.While Beijing is mum, it’s worth noting that North Korea fired a ballistic missile last weekend the first such incident since Donald Trump took office. One can not help but think this is an encouraging sign that Mainland is ready to deal on multiple fronts.

Japanese Yen

It was a very soggy Friday for risk appetite, and predictably the JPY was the favoured parking spot amongst G10 currencies. It was not so much a USD storyline as the EURJPY led the charge taking it on the chin from the opening bell in London. The cross came off from 121 to eventually settle below the 120 handle primarily driven by investor queasiness over upcoming French elections. Then came the predictable follow-through price action on USDJPY as risk-off mode kicked in as safe havens rallied, and US yields tanked. Once again leaving dollar bull’s mired in a wool-gathering session musing where the next catalyst for a significant US$ move will come from, if at all. Reuters reports that “speculators reduced bullish bets on the USD to their lowest since the week ended early October 2016, cutting net longs for a sixth straight week, according to CFTC data released Friday for week up to Feb 14

Japan Finance Minister Aso is planning to start an economic dialogue with Trump administration in April. While they have not decided the agenda, I am sure Tokyo is hoping that the Trump administration will be less severe than Presidents Trump’s campaign currency rhetoric. April is setting up to be a very testy period for Asia currency markets as first FX report under the Trump government is due out then. Let’s face it Currency/trade war is Asia’s biggest horror story, and while the sense of relief came over markets after the civility expressed during Xi-Trump call and US-Japan summit, the topic remains an emotional issue.

Chinese Yuan

The Yuan continues to track the broader USD, more specifically the USDJPY.

ON the domestic front, given the uptick in inflation and the PBoC’s recent policy tightening moves, the big question is will the Pboc start to use the Short Term Lending Facility ( SLF) to manage their currency policy s. Indeed this month’s surprise tightening is being viewed as part of a PboC policy overhaul as the central bank gradually move to a more liberalised policy stance.

In a policy shift applauded across all trading desks Friday, Beijing loosened its iron grip on stock index futures trading by reducing margins from 40 % to 20 % while relaxing both positions limits and fees. In the same manner, mainland investor jumped all over the opportunity almost doubling the five-day average of contracts traded. It looks like we may have a simple cure for capital outflow, just make mainland financial markets a friendlier place to do business

On the diplomacy front, the China -US olive branch exchange appears to be gearing up as over the weekend China hit North Korea with a massive blow by suspending its coal imports from North Korea.While Beijing is mum, it’s worth noting that North Korea fired a ballistic missile last weekend the first such incident since Donald Trump took office. One can not help but think this is an encouraging sign that Mainland is ready to deal on multiple fronts.

EM Asia

It is a trade fraught with peril but the longer the wait if for US policy clarity on both the Fiscal and Monetary policy fronts especially with commodity prices booming and global growth on the ups. It is tough not putting money to work in regional undervalued equity markets or even to resist the temptation of the ASEAN Carry Trade. However, we know the trade is fraught with danger if not from the Fed flipping the March Rate hike switch it can certainly come in the form of a “currency manipulator” tweet from President Trump.

Monday Morning Futures Run

ENERGY

WTI

US oil markets were in consolidation mode ahead of the US long weekend with Oil Traders doing little more than the position shifting shimmy ahead of Tuesday’s March Futures Contract expiration. Adding to the oil and gasoline supply overhang, data from Baker Hughes on Friday revealed that the number of active US oil drilling rigs rose by 6 to 597, marking the 5th consecutive weekly increase.

US Nat Gas

Henry Hub Nat Gas trade saw a brief short covering rally ahead of the US long weekend but failed to make any dent in market sentiment as the North East USA basks in a balmy January with temperatures topping +12 degrees Celsius.Moreover, the weather outlook continues to trend warmer. Not a convincing outlook for nat gas prices.

Metals

Gold

Given the politically charged climate in Europe surrounding French elections and growing pessimism over the US administration’s fiscal policy or lack thereof, gold prices could shift higher to the 1250-65 level before encountering any significant resistance. However, one thing we can all agree within the gold pit is the biggest threat to the current gold rally is a resurgent USD, and all eyes remain glued to the Greenback.

Copper

Copper could fall further in the near term given that recent supply concerns over the recent strike in Chile could start to unwind as a dialogue between BHP and striking miners at the massive Escondida copper mine gain traction.

Iron ore

Chinese steel demand and prices continue to outpace even the most optimistic of views and the and as such Iron Ore prices continue to froth.Despite record high inventories, as the global economy exits several trying year in secular stagnation and with China’s characteristic Q2 strong seasonality demand barking, Iron ore prices are likely to remain well supported through the first half of 2017

EURUSD - With the pair closing strongly lower on Friday, further weakness is envisaged. On the upside, resistance comes in at 1.0650 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.0700 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.0750 level where a break will expose the 1.0800 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.0550 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0500 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0450 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. All in all, EURUSD faces further downside pressure.

Levels To Short NZD/USD?

At the end of January, Kiwi was looking very toppy as NZD/USD pushed into a confluence of resistance.

Looking at the daily chart from back then, you can see price pushing into both trend line resistance as well as the horizontal zone. Both levels combined to cap further gains and as we said in that January blog post, the way price made a lower high AND lower low each time after capping out at resistance, was fairly telling.

The daily shows the confluence of higher time frame resistance we were talking about:

NZD/USD Daily:

The hourly shows the confluence of higher time frame resistance holding, and price rejecting down from it.

From here, we have lower time frame, previous short term support turned resistance. Combined with higher time frame resistance, this is the obvious spot to short:

NZD/USD Hourly:

And finally, the 15 minute chart shows a further intraday level holding where an add on entry could look to be taken off and most importantly, risk managed around:

NZD/USD 15 Minute:

How are you looking to trade the Kiwi?

While US equities surged to new record high last week, other markets didn't follow. Dollar ended mixed in spite of a chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials, including chair Janet Yellen. A batch of stronger than expected data also provided little support to the greenback. Instead, Dollar was dragged down by treasury yields, which failed to break out from recent range and reversed during the week. Political uncertainties could be a major factor in triggering safe haven flows to US bonds. And such sentiment could also be seen in the broad based weakness in Euro, which closed as the second weakest major currency next to Sterling. Swiss Franc decouple from Euro and Sterling and ended as the second strongest currency. And overall risk aversion on European situation could be the factor in driving up the Japanese Yen, which ended as the strongest major currency.

French elections in April and May are starting to draw a lot of attention. It's reported that two main left wing candidates, Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon, have agreed to team up for the elections. The situation is no candidate is expected to receive a majority in the first round of voting. Originally, centrist Emmanuel Macron is tipped to win over anti-EU right wing Marine Le Pen in the second round of voting. However, the combined support for Hamon and Melenchon could major the left wing candidate as one of the two highest scoring candidate with Le Pen. And in that case, Le Pen is the favorite to win and risk of "Frexit" will jump. The development in France will catch much attention in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, US traders are still waiting for clarity on president Donald Trump's fiscal policies. Trump has yet to deliver his "phenomenal" tax reforms. And traders are holding the bet on yield and Dollar. Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress last week was seen as modestly hawkish. In particular, Yellen warned that 'waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise'. And 'could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession'. Markets' focus will turn to FOMC minutes to this week. As of Friday, fed fund futures are pricing 17.7% chance of a March hike, and 69.9% chance of hike by June.

Technically, the strength in US equities was very impressive as the major indices maintained strong momentum. The pull back in yield dragged the greenback down but that should be temporary. 10 year yield is seen as trading in consolidation since hitting 2.621, possibly in form of triangle. Hence, while deeper fall could be seen in near term, we'd expect strong support around 55 day EMA (now at 2.375) to bring rebound. The next up move should push TNX through 2.555 resistance and then 2.621 high to resume the larger rise from 1.336.

Dollar index retreated after hitting 101.76 last week and that dampened near term bullish outlook. Nonetheless, with 100.08 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Above 101.76 should target a test on 103.82 high. Current momentum doesn't warrant a break out yet and we'd be cautious on topping there. However, break of 100.08 should turn focus back to 98.91/99.43 support zone. And risk of trend reversal will jump in that case.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY dropped notably last week but stayed inside range of 119.32/121.32. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 119.32 will extend the corrective fall from 124.08. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 121.32 minor resistance should revive the case that such correction is completed. And, intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for 123.30/124.08 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

In the long term picture, current medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already.

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EUR/USD dipped to 1.0520 last week but recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week work. With 1.0713 minor resistance intact, we're holding on to our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Below 1.0520 will target 1.0339 first. Break will extend the larger down trend to parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We'd expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.

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USD/JPY's rebound from 111.58 was limited at 114.94 last week and reversed. The development suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 is not finished. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 111.58 and below. Though, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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GBP/USD stayed in range of 1.2346 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected.

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USD/CHF edged higher to 1.0118 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more range trading first. Nonetheless, near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.9929 minor support holds. Fall from 1.0342 could have finished at 0.9860 already. Above 1.0118 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0342. However, break of 0.9929 will likely extend the decline from 1.0342 through 0.9860 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7731 last week but lost momentum quickly to close back into established range. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7605 support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7528) first.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8186) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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