GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.97; (P) 144.37; (R1) 144.76; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. As noted before, corrective fall from 148.42 has completed at 136.44 already. Break of 145.38 resistance will target a test on 148.42 high. Break there will resume whole rise from 122.46 and target 150.42 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 140.74 will turn bias to the downside to extend the pattern from 148.42 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern even. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Though, sustained break will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8482; (P) 0.8510; (R1) 0.8550; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.8303 should have completed at 0.8851 already. Break of 0.8449 support should confirm our bearish view and bring resumption of whole corrective fall from 0.9304. In that case, next target is 0.8116 cluster support. However, break of 0.8650 will turn focus back to 0.8851 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4134; (P) 1.4179; (R1) 1.4213; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Price action from 1.4025 are seen as a corrective pattern and thus maintain near term bearishness. Below 1.4025 will resume the larger fall from 1.6587 to key support level at 1.3671. We'd expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, above 1.4251 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4721 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0675; (P) 1.0685; (R1) 1.0697; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the downside for the moment. Prior break of 1.0677 support indicate resumption of larger decline. Next target will be 1.0620 support. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.1198. On the upside, break of 1.0749 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 would be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0660; (P) 1.0693 (R1) 1.0727; More.....

EUR/USD is staying in tight range below 1.0774 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.0339 are seen as a corrective rise. In case of extension, upside should be limited by 1.0872 resistance. Break of 1.0588 will indicate that such rise is completed and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0339 low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance of the bearish trend line (dotted red). This could signal the completion of wave 4 (purple) and the start of the wave 5 (purple).

The wave 4 (brown) retracement is invalidated if price pushes below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 and the previous top of wave 1 (brown). A bearish breakout (red arrow) could occur below the support level (blue) whereas a bullish breakout (green arrow) could occur above the resistance trend line (red).

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD showed a bearish turn at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 (brown). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate a larger correction towards the 88.6% Fibonacci level.

The EUR/USD bearish reaction could be a wave 1 (blue) but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates this wave count.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD seems to have completed an ABC zigzag (blue) and at the moment seems to be expanding a complex correction (wave W blue).

The GBP/USD built an ABC zigzag (orange) within a potential larger correction (WXY blue).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2506; (P) 1.2555; (R1) 1.2596; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. Break of 1.2414 minor support will argue that it's completed and turn bias to the downside for 1.1946 low. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance at 1.2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 0.9995; (R1) 1.0021; More.....

USD/CHF is staying in range trading above 0.9958 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.0121 resistance holds. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0327. Below 0.9958 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. Nonetheless, break of 1.0121 will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 1.0342.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still expecting the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.50; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.48; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. As noted before, price actions from 118.65 are seen as a corrective move. Below 112.51 will extend such decline but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound. Break of 115.61 resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7514; (P) 0.7543; (R1) 0.7575; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. The pair has been losing upside momentum with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 0.7448 support will indicate that rebound from 0.7158 has completed. That will turn bias to the downside for 0.7144 key support level. Above 0.7608 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box