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'Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near-record-high job openings and record-low layoffs underpin the entire job market.' - Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics

The US private sector created more than expected jobs last month, surprising markets. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday showed companies added 298,000 new jobs to the economy in February, while analysts expected a gain of 184,000 jobs. The report also showed that January's initially reported gain of 246,000 jobs was revised up to 261,000. Wednesday's stronger-than-expected ADP figures provided support to the US Dollar on hopes that Friday's NFP would surprise on the upside. After the release, the EUR/USD pair fell to 102.00, while the US Dollar Index advanced to 101.80. Markets expect Friday's NFP data to show a rise of 185,000 for February, compared to the preceding month's gain of 227,000. If the actual data comes in higher than economists' estimates, it would provide additional support for Fed officials to raise rates at their meeting next week. According to market consensus, the unemployment rate slowed down to 4.7% in February from the previous month's 4.8%. Other data release on Wednesday showed US crude oil inventories rose 8.2 million in the week ended March 3, compared to the prior week's gain of 1.5 million barrels, while market analysts anticipated a climb of 1.1 million barrels during the reported week.

'As we start our negotiations to exit the European Union, this Budget takes forward our plan to prepare Britain for a brighter future '. - Philip Hammond

The UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond presented his annual budget statement for the 2017-18 fiscal year on Wednesday. According to the latest projections, the British economy is likely to expand 2% in 2017, compared to a previous estimate of 1.4%. Nevertheless, during the next year economic growth is expected to fall to 1.6% and then climb to 1.7% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Hammond also said that a return to a 2% growth rate is expected in 2021. Meanwhile, inflation is seen hitting 2.4% in 2017, before slowing to 2.3% in 2018. Inflation is expected to return to the Bank of England's target rate of 2% in 2019. Net borrowing in the public sector is predicted to drop to 2.6% in 2016-2017, compared with 3.8% in 2015-2016, and rebound to 2.9% in 2017-2018. However, Hammond highlighted that it would probably decline to 1.9% in 2018-2019 and hit 0.7% in 2021-2022. He also said that the personal allowance would increase to 11,500 pounds, as well as the higher rate of income tax threshold would rise to 45,000 pounds. For small businesses the tax-free dividend allowance would decline to 2,000 pounds. Furthermore, the government would give a 1,000 pound discount on business rate bills for all pubs with rateable value up to 100,000 pounds in 2017.

E-mini S&P500 found some support in the last 24 hours, likely it's turning up for a new three wave bounce as we see a completed five wave decline down from 2400 high. As such, price may see more upside in the near-term, up to around 2375 or even 2383 resistance before downtrend may resume.

S&P500, 1H

The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low.Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs.

Aussie dollar remains under pressure and eventually probes through a cluster of supports between 0.7529/06 (200 / 55 / 100 SMA's and Fibo 38.2% of 0.7158/0.7739 rally).

Today's fresh bearish acceleration today extends the second leg (commenced from 0.7630) of pullback from 0.7739 (23 Feb high).

Strong bearish signals are generating, with daily close below 0.7500 handle required to confirm scenario. Penetration of 0.7471 (daily cloud top) would open next targets at 0.7448 (50% retracement) and 0.7426 (daily cloud base).

Falling 10SMA marks strong resistance at 0.7602.

Res: 0.7529, 0.7570, 0.7602, 0.7630
Sup: 0.7500, 0.7471, 0.7448, 0.7426

Cable entered near-term consolidation phase above 1.2155 target (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1986/1.2704 rally) which was cracked on Wednesday. The pair hit new seven-week low at 1.2137, but failed to confirm break on close below 1.2155.

This is seen as key near-term point, break of which would open way towards key short-term support at 1.1986 (16 Jan low).

Firmly bearish technical studies favor further weakness, with initial offers standing just above 1.2200 barrier (yesterday's high), while lower platform at 1.2300 (reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen) marks strong resistance and the upper breakpoint.

Res: 1.2212, 1.2250, 1.2300, 1.2345
Sup: 1.2155, 1.2137, 1.2100, 1.2035

EUR/JPY - 121.42

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Sideways

Original strategy:

Buy at 119.65, Target: 121.35, Stop: 119.05

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 120.95, Target: 122.55, Stop: 120.35

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 120.02 yesterday, adding credence to our bullishness and signal the rise from 118.24 low is still in progress for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 122.00 and possibly towards 122.50 but overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter well below resistance at 122.52, bring another decline later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips but at a higher level as 120.90-00 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 120.45-50 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness to said support at 120.02 but break there is needed to provide confirmation and suggest the rise from 118.24 has ended.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

The pair is attempting again through 114.73 (03 / 08 Mar highs) after yesterday's rally was rejected here.

Fresh bullish acceleration emerges above daily cloud which twisted today and seen supportive for further upside.

Bulls eye immediate target at 115.08 (50% of 118.59/111.57 descend), break of which would open 115.36 and 115.60 (high of 27 / 19 Jan respectively) and unlock strong barrier at 115.91 (Fibo 61.8% of 118.59/111.57).

Multiple bull-crosses (10/30 and 10/20 SMA's, as well as daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bull-cross) underpin, with close above widening daily cloud needed to confirm scenario.

Session low at 114.27 marks initial support, ahead of former pivotal barriers at 114.10 zone, with key near-term support at 113.56 (higher base).

Res: 115.09, 115.36, 115.60, 115.91
Sup: 114.27, 114.10, 113.56, 113.28

The Euro holds weak tone and extends bear-leg from 1.0638 (06 Mar high), to crack double-Fibonacci support at 1.0525/28 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0339/1.0827 and Fibo 76.4% of 1.0493/1.0638).

Close below the latter is needed to confirm strong bearish stance that extends into fourth consecutive day and opens way towards key near-term support at 1.0493 (daily higher base).

Strong bearish tone on daily studies supports bears for full-retracement of 1.0493/1.0638 upleg and further weakness towards next target at 1.0454 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.0339/1.0827) on break.

Broken daily Tenkan-sen (currently in sideways mode at 1.0566) should ideally cap corrective upticks, as thickening daily cloud (1.0605/1.0653) continues to weigh).

ECB is expected to keep monetary policy on hold on today's meeting, despite economic growth and inflation are picking up, as the central bank remains cautious ahead of high risk elections in Netherlands and France.

Res: 1.0546, 1.0566, 1.0579, 1.0605
Sup: 1.0524, 1.0493, 1.0454, 1.0388

'Thanks to the strongest increase in private payrolls since April 2014, the U.S. dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies.' - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management (investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

On Thursday morning the common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate passed another notable level of support. The currency pair had dropped below the weekly S1, which is located at 1.0533 level and stopped the pair's fall during Wednesday's trading session. It is likely that the rate will fall to the lower Bollinger band, which was located at 1.0508 on Thursday morning. However, below that the closest cluster of support begins at 1.0446, where the weekly S2 is located at.

Traders' Sentiment

For the fourth consecutive trading session SWFX traders remain neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long. In addition, trader set up orders are identical, as 51% of orders are set to buy the Euro.