EUR/JPY dipped mildly last week but stayed in range of 120.90/124.08. Outlook is unchanged and initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is still in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. As rise from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective pattern, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 118.45 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

In the long term picture, current medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already.

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EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8303 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.8766. The development suggests that fall from 0.9304 is completed at 0.8303. Rise from there is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern. Initial bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 and above. On the downside, below 0.8646 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.8449 support will start the third leg of the corrective pattern to 0.8303 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8260) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935. Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

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EUR/AUD's fall from 1.4721 resumed last week and reached as low as 1.4138. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Still, as long as 1.4322 support turned resistance holds, deeper fall is mildly in favor to 1.4072 low. Decisive break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. On the upside, above 1.4322 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4467 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as it stayed in range of 1.0677/0762 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Below 1.0677 will extend the corrective fall from 1.1198 and target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.80; (P) 114.65; (R1) 115.56; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. The decline from 118.65 would extend to 55 day EMA (now at 113.22) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0078; (P) 1.0162; (R1) 1.0224; More.....

USD/CHF is holding above 1.0019 support and intraday bias stays neutral first. Price actions from 1.0342 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0561; (P) 1.0622 (R1) 1.0674; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 1.0339 short term bottom would target 1.0872 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, below 1.0453 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend towards parity.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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The forex markets are generally steady today, staying in prior day's range. Dollar and Sterling remain the two weakest major currencies for the week while Yen is strong together with Aussie and Kiwi. Released from US, retail sales rose 0.6% in December, missing expectation of 0.7%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2%, also missed expectation of 0.5%. Headline PPI rose 0.3% mom, 1.6% yoy in December, accelerated from November's 1.3% yoy and meets expectation. PPI core rose 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy, unchanged from November's 1.6% yoy and above expectation of 1.6% yoy.

BoE policy maker Michael Saunders said that "economic growth has recently been stronger than expected." And he expects unemployment rate to stay below 5% this year, comparing to a rise as projected in the November inflation report. However, he said that wage is unlikely to growth strongly and won't add to extra inflation pressure for UK. Still, weak Sterling would still push inflation to above 2% this year. In Eurozone, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that "the European Central Bank will have the tough task of getting out of the ultra-expansionary monetary policy." And, "it would presumably be right if the ECB dared to exit this year".

China's trade surplus narrowed to US$40.8B in December from USD44.6B a month ago. From a year ago, exports contracted -6.1% y/y, deteriorating from a -1.6% drop in November, while imports growth decelerated to +3.1%, from November's expansion of +13%. Both contraction in exports and expansion in imports came in worse than expectations. We are concerned that rising oil prices would continue to weigh on the country's balance of payment given China's huge crude oil imports. Released last week, the country's FX reserve was reported to have dropped -US$41B, to US$3.01 trillion, in December. Similar to the past 5 months, the decline was driven by government's selling of foreign currencies to moderate renminbi depreciation More in China Watch: Soaring Oil Prices Weighed On Trade Surplus Whilst Lifted PPI.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2210; (R1) 1.2268; More...

GBP/USD is staying in range of 1.2036/2432 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper fall is still expected as long as 1.2432 resistance holds. Below 1.2036 will target a test on 1.1946 low first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2432 will suggest that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Economic Indicators Update

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2210; (R1) 1.2268; More...

GBP/USD is staying in range of 1.2036/2432 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper fall is still expected as long as 1.2432 resistance holds. Below 1.2036 will target a test on 1.1946 low first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2432 will suggest that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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China's trade surplus narrowed to US$40.8B in December from USD44.6B a month ago. From a year ago, exports contracted -6.1% y/y, deteriorating from a -1.6% drop in November, while imports growth decelerated to +3.1%, from November's expansion of +13%. Both contraction in exports and expansion in imports came in worse than expectations. We are concerned that rising oil prices would continue to weigh on the country's balance of payment given China's huge crude oil imports. Released last week, the country's FX reserve was reported to have dropped -US$41B, to US$3.01 trillion, in December. Similar to the past 5 months, the decline was driven by government's selling of foreign currencies to moderate renminbi depreciation

Fear of persistent decline in renminbi has triggered massive capital outflow from China, a situation that has caused the government to accelerate capital control measures. The latest report by S&P unveiled that China is attempting to deprecate the currency, deplete foreign reserves and intensify capital controls, all at the same time. Reuters earlier reported that China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has ordered banks operating in China to keep controls of capital outflow confidential and to prohibit their research arms from publishing negative outlooks renminbi. S&P echoed this by suggesting that SAFE “is insisting in oral instructions to dozens of banks that they don't reveal its role in such restrictions”.

Released earlier in the week, China's headline CPI eased mildly to +2.1% y/y in December from +2.3% a month ago. The moderation was mainly driven by food price which decelerated to +2.4% from November's +4%. Non-food inflation, however, picked up to +2% from +1.8% previously, resulting in steady core inflation (excluding food and energy) of +1.9%. PPI soared to +5.5% y/y in December, from +3.3% a month ago. The broadly based improvement marked the fastest increase in over 5 years, thanks to renminbi weakness and higher commodity prices. The Nation Bureau of Statistics noted that 5 sectors, namely ferrous metal, coal, oil, petroleum and non-ferrous metal, together contributed 76% to the total PPI.