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December quarter inflation had the casting vote and voted ‘Yes, hike’. RBA to raise cash rate at February meeting to 3.85%. Further rate hikes possible but ‘one-and-done’ as a base case.

• When the economy is close to full employment and full capacity utilisation, it is hard to know which side of the line it is on. Inflation outcomes are the best guide in this situation. This is one reason why inflation gets the ‘casting vote’ at the RBA’s February meeting. With trimmed mean as the clearest signal of the underlying inflation trend, its 0.9%qtr, 3.4%yr quarterly result in the December quarter implies that the RBA is likely to raise rates at the February meeting.
• Looking beyond the next meeting, Australia’s inflation outlook got murkier in recent weeks. A higher starting point is implied by the September and December quarter data, a stronger labour market and a clear upswing in consumer spending. Further out, though, higher market pricing for interest rates and a noticeably higher exchange rate should dampen the forecast trajectory relative to the November SMP round. The RBA’s judgement on how these factors balance out will be key to the rates outlook beyond the next meeting.
• A cash rate increase next week might not necessarily be followed up with a sequence of moves. Nobody doubted that a cash rate in the 4s last year was restrictive, and the amount of disinflation required from here is not large. Expect a ‘wait-and-see’ stance, with a clear willingness to follow up to be communicated following the meeting.

As we highlighted last week, it really shouldn’t be that the RBA decision comes down to one number. With the other data finely balanced, though, the quarterly inflation print gets the casting vote. Today’s data voted for a rate hike. This means that we now expect that the RBA to react by raising the cash rate at its February meeting. September quarter’s high reading could be looked through on the grounds that some of the pick-up was temporary. This was also our view. Two higher-than-desired quarters are harder to look through, however, even allowing for the uncertainties involved in the new CPI collection.

After preparing the ground in recent weeks for a rate hike, we believe the RBA Monetary Policy Board will follow through on these warnings with a 0.25ppt increase in the cash rate to 3.85%.

There is still a small chance they hold, and we expect the Board to debate the merits of holding versus raising the cash rate at the meeting. We are mindful of the messaging via the media that the RBA would hike if trimmed mean inflation remained above its 2–3% target and was drifting further away from the desired midpoint (our emphasis). The run of quarterly data might not quite meet the second part of that test, though there are definitely ways to construe the data to argue that it does. There are also arguments to be cautious given that the new monthly collection has made the inflation data harder to interpret. With market and public expectations already primed, though, the Board is likely to see little reason to wait.

The key quarterly trimmed mean inflation rate (the pre-October method now buried in an appendix, given the current calculation methods are afflicted with seasonality-related uncertainty) printed higher than Westpac expected, at 0.9%qtr, 3.4%yr. This is too high for the RBA’s comfort, even though it is a little lower than the September quarter result. Its November forecast was for quarterly-basis trimmed mean inflation to print at 3.2%yr. Other measures of underlying inflation were likewise too high.

The monthly data was a bit more of a mixed bag. Seasonally adjusted headline inflation was in line with our year-ended view (PDF 901KB) (3.7%yr). Housing-related inflation was more benign than expected in December, with both rent inflation and home-building inflation below our year-ended forecasts. Rent inflation continues to moderate, and the run of monthly data on home-building costs looks like inflation in that category might have peaked.

Some other categories were above our expectations, though, if only a little, and this was enough to push the trimmed mean – both monthly and quarterly – higher than our calculations implied. The result was also clearly above what the RBA would have needed to see to hit their November forecast, as noted above.

Looking beyond the next meeting, Australia’s inflation outlook got murkier in recent weeks. A higher starting point is implied by the September and December quarter data, stronger labour market and clear upswing in consumer spending. Further out, though, higher market pricing for interest rates and a noticeably higher exchange rate should dampen the forecast trajectory relative to the November SMP round, steepening a downward slope in the inflation forecasts.

Whether the RBA actually incorporates this downside is another matter. The RBA has recently been working on the basis that the Australian economy is trapped in the slow lane, hemmed in by slow-growing supply. As we have previously highlighted, this working assumption rests on further assumptions about productivity growth and population growth that are both on the low side of reasonable estimates. Today’s data will only solidify the RBA’s view, and we expect renewed emphasis on this narrative in the next Statement on Monetary Policy.

We do not, however, assume this necessarily means a sequence of back-to-back hikes. An increase in the cash rate next week will put policy in an unambiguously restrictive position, a point on which there has been some debate recently. The peak cash rate is only half a point higher than next week’s expected outcome. And with measures of underlying inflation in the bottom half of the 3s, the amount of disinflation needed to get back to the 2½% target midpoint is relatively modest.

If inflation remains uncomfortably high in coming quarters, the Board will act again. However, further moderation over coming quarterly inflation prints, together with benign reads on the labour market, might see the Board wait for some time before moving the cash rate again. Since this is our current view of the inflation outlook, pending a full review, our base case is for a single hike as the most likely outcome, followed by an extended pause. Depending on the time elapsed and pace of disinflation from here, the next move could be in either direction.

Markets

The calm in most major (dollar) pairs since last summer got completely shattered. It started with the Fed subpoenas and the Greenland crisis, which fueled already lingering concerns about the stability and relative worth of US assets including the dollar. Next came the news about a potential coordinated intervention between the US and Japan to prop up the ailing yen. From the US side it signaled tolerance for a weaker dollar. We saw a dramatic two-day USD/JPY slide in response with strong spillovers to all other USD cross rates. There was some stabilization in early dealings yesterday but it was nothing but a false dawn. Then there was president Trump late yesterday. Asked if he was worried about the dollar’s recent decline, Trump said it is fine and that the dollar is doing great. Instead he pointed fingers at Japan and China, who “devalue, devalue, devalue” to be more competitive. Trump’s comments were taken as the go ahead for further dollar weakness. And USDoooown it was. EUR/USD soared from an intraday low around 1.185 to as high as 1.2081 before closing at 1.2041 – a new 4-year high. It prompted the first comments from ECB policymakers. The Austrian Kocher in an interview with the Financial Times warned that the central bank may act if further “significant increases” would lower inflation projections. The trade-weighted index tanked to 95.55 but managed to close above 96 and at the 2025 September low) eventually. Cable (GBP/USD) had its first +1.38 finish in four years as well. Most pairs were driven by the dollar side of the equation and the greenback will remain at the center of attention today. There were a few exceptions though. The CHF for example racked in haven flows, rallying against the dollar but also the euro. EUR/CHF closed at a record low of 0.916, barring the 2015 episode. SEK and NOK completed the top three. Dollar weakness translated in record gold and silver prices too. Stock markets still closed in the green and losses for US Treasuries remained orderly so far with yields rising up to 5.8 bps at the long end. But the US administration’s take on the dollar is a risky one. If markets were to lose confidence in the dollar as beacon of stability, rest assured that the sell-off won’t stay limited to the currency. The near 10 bps rise in the 5y5y US inflation swap (inflation expectations gauge) yesterday to among the highest in seven months serves as a warning sign.

Just like that Trump downgraded the FOMC policy meeting to a secondary event. He didn’t even have to announce his Fed chair pick shortly before the kickoff to steal the central bank’s thunder. We still see risks of that happening though. In all fairness, the rates status quo expected for today has been long in the making and we don’t expect chair Powell to reveal much of the veil for the future. He probably won’t have to, with the Q&A in the presser probably centering around everything but monetary policy: expect questions about Trump’s comments on the dollar, the Fed subpoenas and his video response to it & his attendance in governor Cook’s hearing during governor Cook’s hearing.

News and views

Quarterly Australian inflation data showed price pressure slowing from 1.3% Q/Q in Q3 to 0.6% Q/Q in the final quarter of the year, matching expectations. The central bank’s preferred trimmed mean gauge stayed sticky at 0.9% Q/Q (from 1%) with the annual pace accelerating to 3.4% from 3% in Q3 and returning above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% inflation target. On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated with a 1% increase resulting in a Y/Y-acceleration from 3.4% to 3.8% (vs 3.6% expected). The largest contributor to annual inflation was housing, up 5.5%. Annual goods inflation moved from 3.3% Y/Y to 3.4% Y/Y while services inflation accelerated from 3.6% Y/Y to 4.1% Y/Y. Australian money markets add to bets 68% probability that the RBA could switch to rate hikes as soon as at the next, February 3, policy meeting. The Aussie dollar surpassed AUD/USD 0.70 for the first time since February 2023. A commodity rally, rate hike bets and an overall weak USD, propelled the pair from levels below 0.67 only a week ago.

MSCI has concluded its consultation on free float assessment of Indonesian securities. Investors highlighted that fundamental investability issues persist due to ongoing opacity in shareholding structures and concerns about possible coordinated trading behaviour that undermines proper price formation. In light of the foregoing concerns, MSCI will apply an interim freeze on certain index related changes for Indonesian securities. If insufficient progress is made towards achieving necessary transparency enhancements by May 2026, MSCI will reassess Indonesia's market accessibility status. This could result in a weighting reduction in MSCI Emerging Markets Indexes for all Indonesian securities or a potential reclassification of Indonesia from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status. The Jakarta Composite Index in currently 8% lower, triggering a market halt.

There were plenty of major stories and market moves yesterday, but the most significant — and most impactful — was undoubtedly the sharp sell-off in the US dollar. It pushed the US Dollar Index to a four-year low and continues to drive gold and silver to fresh record highs this morning.

Trade and geopolitical uncertainty, tied to an increasingly unreliable American friend and ally, as well as growing concerns about what will happen to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) credibility once Jerome Powell leaves office (it will fly out of the window), continue to weigh on the US dollar. Add to that the latest US consumer survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence, a marked deterioration in how households view the current situation, a decline in the share of consumers expecting income growth, and a steady rise in those saying jobs are hard to get. You get a pretty murky picture for the greenback and the two-speed US economy.

Still, this will hardly convince the Fed to cut rates today or in the coming months. Jerome Powell is likely to avoid political commentary at his post-decision speech today and keep the focus firmly on economic data to justify policy decisions.

That said, we all know the US President is waiting just outside the room — and anything he might say about the Fed’s decision, or about how much he dislikes Powell, would only risk making matters worse for the US dollar, much to the delight of gold and silver longs. But with or without buzzy headlines, the US dollar looks condemned to weaken.

The only real comfort is that US inflation has not surged as a result of tariffs. That is partly because importers built up stockpiles to buy time, but also because only around 20% of announced tariff threats have actually been implemented since November 2024, according to Bloomberg. In other words, only a fifth of tariff threats have materialised so far — giving the so-called TACO trade (“Trump Always Chickens Out”) some concrete data backing today.

This may help explain why Korean equities barely reacted when President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Korea, citing the lack of formal codification of last year’s trade deal. That agreement includes up to $350bn of Korean investment commitments in the US — a massive sum, especially with the won under pressure. South Korea has already signalled it may delay up to $20bn of planned US investment this year. Fury.

Political tensions aside, the Kospi hit fresh highs today, with SK Hynix continuing its “Free Solo” climb after reports it has become the exclusive supplier of memory chips for Microsoft’s new AI chip!

Elsewhere, after a year of trade tensions, former US allies appear increasingly keen to diversify. Last week, Canada signed a trade arrangement with China, easing rules on several sensitive areas, including Chinese EV exports. This week, Europe finalised a trade deal with Mercosur and another with India after two+ decades of negotiations. Funny how a common adversary can accelerate diplomacy!

Ursula von der Leyen dubbed the India agreement “the mother of all deals”. It eliminates more than 95% of tariffs on both sides and covers cars, industrial goods, wine, pasta, chocolate and other European exports for India’s 1.5bn consumers to enjoy without tariffs.

The mood among European investors would have been even better had LVMH not reported weaker sales on the same day. Still, the Stoxx 600 closed close to record highs, led once again by defence stocks, as Europe continues to ramp up spending on security and technology amid an increasingly strained relationship with the US.

Europe has strong players in defence. In tech, the challenge is far greater and will take years to address. That said, there are signs of progress: this week, the EU switched on parts of its home-grown secure satellite communications network, designed to reduce reliance on Starlink for sensitive uses. These efforts are likely to intensify as geopolitical risks grow, justifying investment in European defence and tech.

Speaking of tech, ASML — Europe’s largest technology company and the world’s sole supplier of the most advanced chip-making machines — reported earnings this morning. Results showed a modest beat on revenue and profit, and a significant upside surprise on bookings. Order intake reached around €13.2bn, roughly double expectations, underlining strong forward demand, particularly for EUV systems.

European futures are higher, while Nasdaq futures are leading gains among major indices, with ASML’s results boosting sentiment ahead of a busy US earnings calendar. Meta, Microsoft and Tesla report after the bell. For Microsoft, focus will be on Azure growth, AI-related product revenues and data-centre spending plans. For Meta, attention will centre on costs and monetisation of AI initiatives. I personally remain little convinced with Meta’s shift from social media to AI media, but hey... For Tesla, the spotlight is happily less on plunging car sales and more on dream... The pace of robotaxi expansion and the timeline for Optimus will matter more than actual numbers— though Elon Musk has already warned that production will be slow. Market reaction may once again hinge more on a single man's persuasion than on reality.

In focus today

The main event will be tonight's FOMC meeting. We expect no monetary policy changes, in line with broad consensus and market pricing. As the Fed will not be releasing updated economic projections, attention will centre on Powell's assessment of recent economic data, and the likelihood of further rate cuts this spring. We expect Powell to avoid any specific speculation regarding future Fed nominations and recent challenges to the central bank's independence. Read more in: Fed preview - Temporary pause on rate cuts, 23 January.

The Bank of Canada also meet today, and we expect the central bank to maintain its policy rate at 2.25%.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the US, the consumer confidence index for January unexpectedly fell to 84.5 (cons: 90.9, prior: 94.2), diverging sharply from the University of Michigan's survey, which had painted a more optimistic picture. The decline was most pronounced in the 'present situation' assessment, with labour market indicators showing weakness. The widely followed 'jobs plentiful' index dropped to its lowest level since February 2021, a time when the unemployment rate stood at 6.2%. This appears more tied to real economic conditions than tariff concerns, as inflation expectations eased. These sentiment indicators have sent somewhat conflicting signals lately, but all else equal, this could fuel some further USD weakness.

The EU and India have concluded a landmark trade agreement that will remove tariffs on over 90% of goods traded between the two economies. Under the deal, India will lower tariffs on European automobiles and agricultural products, while the EU will reciprocate by easing duties on India's labour-intensive exports, which have suffered significantly due to the 50% tariffs imposed by the US. Currently ranked as the EU's ninth-largest trading partner, India accounted for 2.4% of the bloc's total goods trade in 2024. The EU anticipates that the agreement will double its exports to India by 2032, fostering stronger economic ties.

In Hungary, the central bank kept policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, in line with market expectations.

Equities: Equities generally higher, with the same dynamics observed over the last three trading sessions: US tech and related utilities orchestrated a comeback, while small caps underperformed for a third session. Semis were particularly strong, likely speculation of hiked AI capex plans from the hyperscalers. Microsoft is important, reporting today after US closing.

European and Nordic equities also somewhat higher, but below the highs taken prior to the tariff threats. The rapid dollar decline probably plays a role behind the sluggish rebound, as the FX headwind hits earnings. Be aware that earnings revisions will be negative for most Nordic companies after post results, solemnly due to FX, although demand assumption is held constant, or even lifted. Another reason is that there were no contrarian dip to buy in the first place. Despite last week's selloff we did not observe any genuine market stress and positioning were far from oversold. Investors are buying equities, but anchored in fundamental economic strength, which is a slower process higher than a dip buying opportunity.

FI and FX: Broad USD remains under heavy pressure as the prospect of joint FX intervention between the US and Japan added further momentum to the recent USD sell-off. EUR/USD finds itself flirting with the 1.20 mark, whereas EUR/CHF broke below the 0.92 mark, as the CHF has benefitted from the increased uncertainty and as an alternative to the USD. Scandies continue to do well, just as anything with a reverse correlation to USD, and EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK both saw Monday's bounce completely reversed yesterday, with the latter once again breaking below 10.60.

Key Highlights

• AUD/USD rallied above the key resistance at 0.6800 and 0.6900.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 0.6900 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD gained bullish momentum and climbed above 1.1900.
• Gold prices remain elevated, and dips could be attractive to the bulls.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar started a major increase above 0.6800 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD cleared the 0.6880 hurdle to enter a bullish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 0.6920, the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). The bulls even pumped the pair above 0.6950.

The current price action suggests high chances of more upside. Besides, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6900. Immediate resistance sits near 0.6985. The first key hurdle could be 0.7000.

A close above 0.7000 could open the doors for more gains. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward 0.7120. If there is a pullback, AUD/USD might find bids near 0.6900 or the trend line.

A close below the trend line might initiate an extended drop. The first major area for the bulls might be near 0.6840. The main support sits at 0.6800, below which the pair could accelerate lower. The next support could be 0.6740 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair extended gains and traded above 1.1900. The next key hurdle sits near 1.2000.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• BoC Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 2.25%, versus 2.25% previous.

The S&P 500 (SPX) has advanced to a new all-time high, confirming that the bullish sequence from the November 21, 2025 low remains intact. This breakout favors more upside in the near term. The rally from that low is unfolding in a clear five-wave structure, consistent with Elliott Wave analysis. Wave ((i)) ended at 6986.33, marking the first leg of strength. The pullback in wave ((ii)) developed as a zigzag correction. Within this phase, wave (a) ended at 6885.74, wave (b) rallied to 6979.34, and wave (c) declined to 6788.03. This completed wave ((ii)) at a higher degree.

From there, the index resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Wave (i) advanced to 6934.75, while wave (ii) pulled back to 6895.5. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 6988.82. A short-term pullback in wave (iv) is expected, but buyers should return for one more push higher to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). Afterward, the index should correct in wave ((iv)), addressing the cycle from the January 21, 2026 low before resuming its broader rally.

Near term, as long as the pivot at 6788.03 holds, pullbacks are likely to remain corrective. Buyers are expected to appear in three, seven, or eleven swings, supporting further upside. This structure highlights market resilience and suggests that the path of least resistance continues to point higher.

S&P 500 (SPX) 45 minute chart

SPX Elliott Wave video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_HLzYzjk5g

• After Gold reached $5,000, other metals are selling off
• Signs from previous weeks could point to a larger correction depending on the FOMC outlook
• Technical analysis for XAG/USD (Gold), XAU/USD (Silver) and XPT/USD (Platinum) & FOMC trading levels

A lot has changed since our last high-timeframe outlook, reminding us that black swan events can affect any projections and expectations in a matter of a headline and a session.

The start of 2026 has been marked by chaotic headlines and geopolitical events, which is now a new norm. Some call it the New World Order (or New World Disorder).

Last weekend offered quite a show across Markets and journals as the US President decided to threaten additional tariffs to European nations in his latest temper tantrum:

Donald Trump reaffirmed his desire to acquire Greenland, sparking widespread concern ahead of the World Economic Conference, held in Davos last week.

The immediate reactions were flash US Dollar selloffs and Metals extending much higher in a newfound risk-off move.

Despite the headlines materializing into something much less concerning for the world as we know it, the confidence damage from the latest TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) has prolonged the damage to the Greenback and supported the precious commodities.

About a week after the headlines, Silver reached the $100 milestone while Gold accelerated to $5,000, not even mentioning the swift rises in Platinum, Palladium, and other metals.

Metals performance since 2026 – Source: TradingView

Shortly after reaching the new milestones, however, some divergences between metals have emerged and are turning into quite sudden reversals.

Silver topped suddenly at $117 after a 27% weekly explosion, Platinum spiked at $2,884 and now stands 12% lower while Gold holds solidly above $5,000.

Ahead of FOMC events, moves can be exaggerated by lower volumes and orders, which can push supply and demand to have a more significant impact on prices – a result of the past two days of action in Commodities and the US Dollar.

The most extensive tests for the run in metals are about to unfold, both regarding the Federal Reserve:

• The first is tomorrow's monthly FOMC meeting (the first of eight in 2026) – a cut is far from priced in (only 3%), so participants will be listening very closely to what Powell says during his press conference.
• The second, less predictable, is the nomination for the next Fed Chair – Powell's term as Chair ends in May 2026 (but will be able to remain at the Board of Governors).
• Rick Rieder is now the favorite, not far in front of Kevin Warsh – This only looks at the current Prediction-Market odds.
• Some geopolitical events could still largely change the picture.

Odds for the next Fed Chair nomination – Source: Kalshi

Let's dive right into a technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) to spot where the current trend stands, just ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold easily brushed through any pessimistic outlook as the geopolitical tone worsened yet again.

After remaining dormant in the first few trading days of 2026, the Bullion managed a swift push to daily new records, forming a technical Tight Bull Channel.

Last week's push was consistent, backed by the changing fundamental environment.

As other metals now struggle, XAU is showing why it's the ultimate safe-haven: As its peers are giving up their high gains, it remains strongly above $5,000 (and nearing $5,100 as we speak).

A potential US Intervention in Iran is still looming.

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will have a high chance to affect the current flows.

• A neutral/hawkish Fed (base case) could reduce demand, which may prompt a correction to at least $4,600
• A dovish Fed (less likely) would pump gold to swift new highs (a quick test of potential resistance around $5,300).
  • The same would follow in other metals.

In terms of Fed nominees, some analysts argue that Rick Rieder would be bearish on metals (bullish on Bonds and the USD) while Kevin Warsh would keep the trend as it is.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $5,000 to $5,100 Major Psychological Resistance
• $5,115 All-time highs and running
• Key Fibonacci Projection $5,250 to $5,350
• Next psychological level at $5,500

Support Levels:

• Preceding ATH Pivot $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish below
• Channel break-retest around $4,800 (+/- $30)
• 20-Day Moving average $4,635
• Pivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050
• $3,200 to $3,500 Major Support

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The ongoing parabolic ascension remains historic as the devil's metal elevates to new record highs, up at whopping 27% since January 16!

A $10 move is now the new normal in the ongoing reckless squeeze – A note to take into account in case volatility keeps rising from here.

The metal reached $117, just shy of $120. After reaching the new record, a flash-sale took Silver to a retest of the $102 level.

Shorter timeframes indicate a triangle consolidation as the pre-FOMC action looks undecided.

• Breaking below its support could point to a swifter retracement, with the $93 to $95 being a reasonable target – A larger retracement could of course occur (watch out for mean-reversion in such violent markets).
• Any push to new record could easily take the metal to the $125 psychological level.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $114 to $117 Current ATH Resistance
• Current record $117.75
• $125.00 Next Psychological Resistance

Support Levels:

• $100 Psychological level
• $93.50 to $96.00 Jan 20 Highs – Current Momentum Pivot
• Mini-Support $83 to $85
• Minor Support $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish below
• Christmas lows $70
• Pivotal Support $48 to $50

Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Platinum looks poised for a test of its upward-channel lower bound around $2,350 to $2,390 after stalling its rise suddenly.

Bears appeared in the metal quickly after Gold reached $5,000 while XPT/USD wicked at $2,882.

With the current action more looking like of consolidation/slight correction, it will be very interesting to see if bulls manage to retake the upper hand after the FOMC.

• A daily close above $2,695 points to new record highs
• Failing to do so may trigger a sharper correction in the Precious Metal – Look at its 20-Day Moving Average ($2,353).

Technical Levels to watch for Platinum (XPT/USD)

Resistance Levels:

• Key level to breach for bulls: $2,695
• Retest Resistance $2,700 to $2,770
• Current Main Resistance $2,880 to $3,000
• Current all-time highs $2,882

Support Levels:

• $2,450 to $2,525 December record Pivot
• 20-Day Moving Average $2,353
• $2,200 to $2,300 2008 Pivotal Support
• 50-Day Moving average $2,000
• 2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,920

Similarly as in our previous Metals outlook, it is essential to remind that participating in such moves can be hazardous as stops can easily trigger in volatile environments.

Keep your risk, orders and positions in check while trading these historic markets, particularly as the FOMC approaches and geopolitical turmoil still looms.

Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves!

Safe Trades!

USDCHF: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCHF broke key support level 0.7880
• Likely to fall to support level 0.7600

USDCHF currency pair falling sharply after the price broke the key support level 0.7880 (which is the lower border of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from June).

The breakout of the support level 0.7880 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of January.

Given the overriding daily downtrend and the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment seen today, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.7600, forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).

EURUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURUSD broke key resistance level 1.1900
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2200

EURUSD currency pair recently broke through the key resistance level 1.1900 (which stopped the sharp daily impulse wave (5) in last September).

The breakout of the resistance level 1.1900 follows the earlier breakout of the daily Triangle from last year – which accelerated the active impulse wave (3).

Given the strong daily uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.2200 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).