Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9744; (P) 0.9777; (R1) 0.9808; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9847. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9709 support holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.9709 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9603) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3538; (P) 1.3593; (R1) 1.3645; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for channel resistance at 1.3670 first. Sustained break there would prompt upside acceleration towards 1.3897 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3477 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6551; (P) 0.6577; (R1) 0.6606; More....

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.6618 will bring further rally to 0.6666 resistance. Break there will resume whole rebound from 0.6442. However, break of 0.6480 support will bring retest of 0.6442 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0803; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0859; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. On the upside, though, break of 1.0875 will resume the rebound from 1.0723 towards 1.0980 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2592; (P) 1.2621; (R1) 1.2666; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2517/38 support zone will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.2682 will suggest that fall from 1.2892 has completed at 1.2538. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.2802 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.04; (P) 151.40; (R1) 151.98; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.65). On the upside, however, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8988; (P) 0.9029; (R1) 0.9061; More....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 0.9094 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9094 will resume larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8728 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt.

As Asian session unfolded, the forex markets have been relatively quiet. Precious metals, on the other hand, are making headlines with Gold soaring above new record high above 2350 mark and Silver also rallies significantly. Nikkei is having a notable rebound even though 40k psychological level could remain a strong resistance to cap upside. Oil prices dip slightly on news that Israel is withdrawing more soldiers from southern Gaza, but the retreat is so far limited.

In the currency markets, Dollar and Euro are showing some strength while Swiss Franc and Yen are lagging behind. Today's trading might remain subdued due to a lack of significant economic data from North America. Yet this could be just the calm before storm. The week ahead is packed with crucial events, including policy decisions from the RBNZ, BoC, and ECB, as well as key data releases like the FOMC minutes, US CPI, and UK GDP, which are poised to inject volatility into the markets.

Technically, EUR/CAD would be an interesting one in the next couple of days. Bias is now on the upside after last week's rally. Further rally is expected as long as 1.4676 minor support holds, to 1.4777 resistance. Firm break there will resume the whole rebound from 1.4457 and target near term channel resistance (now at 1.4809), and probably further to 100% projection of 1.4457 to 1.4777 from 1.4544 at 1.4864.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.76%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.09%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.17%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0146 at 0.786.

Silver surges with eyes on 30 key cluster resistance

Silver's up trend continues in Asian session today and hits the highest level since mid-2021. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 26.27 support holds. Next target is 138.2% projection of 22.26 to 25.76 from 24.31 at 29.14. However, Silver could start to feel heavy above this level, and establish a top around there.

Current rise from 21.92 is part of the up trend from 17.54 (2022 low). Overbought condition could cap the upside, at least on first attempt, around 30 cluster resistance level. That include 30 psychological number, 2021 high at 30.07, and 100% projection of 17.54 to 26.12 from 21.92 at 30.50.

Japan's nominal wages rise 1.8% yoy in Feb, real wages down -1.3% yoy

Japan's nominal labor cash earnings rose by 1.8% yoy in February, aligning with market expectations and marking a 26-month streak of increases. Monthly wages saw 2.0% yoy increase, with regular pay rising by 2.2% yoy. However, over-time pay decreased of -1.0% yoy, and special payments fell significantly by -5.5% yoy.

Real wages fell by 1.3% yoy, marking the 23rd consecutive month of decline. This trend underscores the continuing issue of rising living costs eroding purchasing power of Japanese workers,

A Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare official noted, "We will monitor how growth in nominal pay will develop while price gains are weighing down real wages."

RBNZ, BoC, ECB, FOMC Minutes, US CPI, UK GDP as highlights of the week

This upcoming week is a busy one globally with three central banks in three regions - RBNZ, BoC, and ECB - set to announce their interest rate decisions. Market participants are bracing for these announcements, alongside a series of influential economic data releases that could sway market sentiment and monetary policy outlooks.

RBNZ is expected to maintain OCR at 5.50%. A recent Reuters poll revealed a divided forecast among economists, with a slight majority of 15 to 19 anticipating the first rate reduction by the end of Q3. Others, 14 economists, expect a hold until Q4 or later. Financial institutions like Bank of New Zealand, ASB Bank, and Kiwibank are projecting a Q4 cut, with ANZ and Westpac suggesting a push into Q1 and Q2 2025 respectively. Given this backdrop, RBNZ is unlikely to alter its current narrative significantly at this meeting. Observers look through to next meeting with new economic projections set to be released in May.

BoC is similarly poised to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00%. Last week's weak job data has fueled increasing market bets for a mid-year rate cut, with expectations for a June reduction now surpassing 75%. January's and February's inflation figures showing a return to within the 1-3% target range add to the anticipation that the BoC could commence interest rate reductions by mid-year. Governor Tiff Macklem's statements post-meeting will be scrutinized for any signals of the central bank's next move.

ECB is anticipated to hold main refinancing rate at 4.50% and deposit rate at 4.00%. The majority of ECB official are leaning towards a June cut, contingent on supportive Q1 wage data available in May. A Bloomberg survey highlights a broader anticipation of gradual easing, with economists forecasting a consistent 25ps reduction each quarter, to lower deposit rate to 2.25% by the end of 2025. Market pricing, characteristically more aggressive, are pricing in an approximate 90bps of easing within this year alone. But for now, it's unlikely for Lagarde to talk about anything concrete beyond June, other than laying the groundwork for the first reduction.

Minutes from the FOMC's March session will also be closely scrutinized. The dot plot released at the meeting showed a tight split among policymakers, with 10 pencilling in three rate reductions this year, whereas nine leaned towards two or fewer. Notably, there were 2 members who envisioned no cuts at all, and 2 others who foresaw just a single cut. The minutes would hopefully offer deeper insight into the Committee's deliberations, clarifying the rationale behind the varied projections and the key factors influencing members' outlooks.

Furthermore, a host of economic data, headlined by US CPI will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for Fed's June decision. Other notable releases, including US PPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment, UK GDP, and China's inflation data, will also command attention.

Here are some highlights of the week:

• China CPI, PPI, inflation.
• Monday: Japan cash earnings, current account; Swiss unemployment rate; Germany industrial production trade balance; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
• Tuesday: New Zealand NZIER business confidence; Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business confidence; japan consumer confidence.
• Wednesday: Japan PPI; RBNZ rate decision; Italy retail sales; US CPI, FOMC minutes; BoC rate decision.
• Thursday: Australia inflation expectations; China CPI, PPI; Italy industrial production; ECB rate decision; US PPI, jobless claims.
• Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; China trade balance; Germany CPI final; UK GDP, production, trade balance; US import prices, U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8988; (P) 0.9029; (R1) 0.9061; More....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 0.9094 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 0.9094 will resume larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8728 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt.

Economic Indicators Update

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD is struggling to rise above the 1.0880 resistance zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.0875 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is facing many hurdles near the 1.2720 zone.
• Gold prices rallied further above the $2,300 level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a recovery wave from the 1.0720 zone against the US Dollar. EUR/USD is now correcting losses and facing hurdles near the 1.0880 level.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0870 and 1.0880 resistance levels. A high was formed near 1.0876 and the pair is now stuck near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near 1.0880. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0875 on the same chart.

A clear move above the 1.0880 resistance could send the pair further higher. In the stated case, EUR/USD could rise toward the 1.0950 level.

Immediate support is near the 1.0820 level. The next major support is at 1.0785 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0725 swing low to the 1.0876 high.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0785 support, the pair could decline toward the 1.0750 support. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 1.0720 level in the near term.

Looking at Gold, the bulls were able to push the price above the $2,300 level and it seems like they are now aiming for a test of $2,350.

Economic Releases

Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence for April 2024 - Forecast -9.9, versus -10.5 previous.

Silver's up trend continues in Asian session today and hits the highest level since mid-2021. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 26.27 support holds. Next target is 138.2% projection of 22.26 to 25.76 from 24.31 at 29.14. However, Silver could start to feel heavy above this level, and establish a top around there.

Current rise from 21.92 is part of the up trend from 17.54 (2022 low). Overbought condition could cap the upside, at least on first attempt, around 30 cluster resistance level. That include 30 psychological number, 2021 high at 30.07, and 100% projection of 17.54 to 26.12 from 21.92 at 30.50.