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The Euro remains firm and rises to the highest in seven weeks on Thursday, in extension of Wednesday’s 0.6% advance, mainly seen in post-Fed acceleration.

The single currency benefited from Fed rate cut and more hawkish than expected monetary policy projections for 2026, which further deflated the US dollar.

Rise above significant barriers at 1.1700 zone (psychological / near 50% retracement of 1.1918/1.1468 / daily Ichimoku cloud top) generated bullish signal which need to be verified on sustained break above these levels and keep bullish structure for attack at 1.1746 (Fibo 61.8%) and potential extension towards 1.1800.

Daily studies in full bullish setup (daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen in steep ascend and diverging after formation of bull-cross /strong bullish momentum, with thick daily cloud underpinning the action) contribute to positive fundamentals and keep the door open for further advance.

Broken top of daily Ichimoku cloud (1.1693, also broken bull-channel upper boundary) reverted to strong support, which should contain dips and keep fresh bulls in play.

Res: 1.1746; 1.1778; 1.1812; 1.1830
Sup: 1.1693; 1.1680; 1.1653; 1.1603

• The Fed lowered rates to 3.50–3.75% and resumed asset purchases.
• The franc is gaining on lower tariffs, while the pound is relying on hawkish BoE.

The US dollar experienced its worst day in nearly three months after the Fed cut its key rate and announced a $40 billion asset purchase programme for the upcoming month. The Fed chairman noted that the labour market is cooling and that official employment figures are overstated by about 60k. Coupled with the Fed’s restart of Treasury bond purchases, this lowered yields and triggered a sell-off of the dollar in the market.

At the same time, the Fed’s hawkish stance did materialise. The median FOMC forecast predicts only one rate cut in 2026, and Jerome Powell stated that the rate is in a neutral range, where it neither heats up nor cools down the economy. The Fed feels comfortable in a ‘wait and see’ mode.

The likelihood of a key rate cut in January has decreased from 25% to 20%, and the futures market does not anticipate a cut until April. Consequently, the decline in the dollar appears excessive. Another factor influencing this is the robustness of key competitors. Officials at the ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia have not ruled out tightening policy as early as 2026, while former Bank of Japan chief economist Hideo Hayakawa mentions the possibility of four rate hikes by the end of 2027.

The main beneficiaries of the dollar’s decline have been the Swiss franc and the British pound. Switzerland announced a retroactive cut in import duties from the US, reducing them from 39% to 15%. This change will take effect from 14 November and is expected to boost exports and the economy. Additionally, signals from the Federal Reserve about pausing rate cuts, along with reversals by other central banks, are dampening concerns of the SNB returning to negative interest rates. This supports bearish sentiment on the USDCHF pair.

The futures market continues to price in a rate cut by the Bank of England on 18 December. However, expectations that the BoE will follow the Fed and tighten policy are generating bullish rumours for the GBPUSD pair. The central bank anticipates that measures outlined by Rachel Reeves in the draft budget will reduce inflation by 0.4-0.5 percentage points annually, starting in the second quarter of 2026.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Struggles, Ends the Day Down 0.9%

The Nikkei finished lower on Thursday, primarily because of a large drop in SoftBank Group shares. SoftBank's decline mirrored the steep fall of the US tech giant Oracle, which disappointed investors by predicting sales and profit below what Wall Street analysts expected.

Although the Nikkei briefly rose by 0.5% earlier in the day, it closed down 0.9% at 50148.82. The broader Topix index also fell by 0.94% after opening at a record high.

SoftBank Group was the biggest drag, plummeting 7.69%. Other Japanese technology companies also lost ground, including Tokyo Electron (down 1.57%), Shin-Etsu Chemical (down 3.94%), and the robot maker Fanuc (down 2.19%).

Even bank stocks, such as Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, gave up their initial gains and finished lower.

Swiss National Bank Hold Rates at 0%

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) concluded its final meeting of the year by keeping its key interest rate at zero, and it will continue to charge a small fee ($0.25$ percentage point) on bank deposits that exceed a certain limit.

The bank also stated it is prepared to step into the foreign exchange markets if necessary. Inflation in Switzerland is currently very low, falling to 0.0% in November (from 0.2% in August), mainly because of cheaper hotel stays, rent, and clothing.

Looking ahead, the SNB predicts inflation will remain low, gradually increasing to 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027. Globally, economic growth was better than expected in the third quarter of 2024 despite trade conflicts, though risks from US tariffs and uncertain trade policies remain.

Within Switzerland, the economy actually shrank in the third quarter, largely due to a decrease in pharmaceutical exports to the US after an earlier surge, but other sectors like manufacturing and services saw minor improvements.

The SNB expects the country's economy to grow by just under 1.5% in 2025, slowing to about 1% in 2026, which may lead to a slight rise in unemployment as the economy cools down.

European Session - European Shares Edge Lower, Delivery Hero Down 5%

European stock markets were relatively quiet on Thursday, seeing a small dip overall. The main reason for the decline was the poor forecast from the American cloud company Oracle, which caused technology stocks to fall. This negative news overshadowed the relief felt after the US Federal Reserve made comments that were less aggressive about future interest rate hikes than investors had anticipated.

The general European STOXX 600 index, along with major markets like London and France, was down by about 0.1% to 0.3%. The technology sector specifically dropped about 0.9%, with the German software company SAP falling 2.5% because Oracle's disappointing sales and profit predictions, combined with increased spending plans, brought back worries about the high valuations and returns on investments in artificial intelligence.

Although the Federal Reserve indicated that it might not cut interest rates immediately until the job market stabilizes, which was a positive signal for investors, it wasn't enough to counteract the tech sector's decline.

In other company news, Delivery Hero shares dropped 5% after a downgrade from Citigroup, while Drax in London rose 2.2% after predicting higher-than-expected yearly profits, and RS Group was the top performer on the STOXX 600, gaining 3% after an analyst upgrade.

On the FX front, the US dollar received some support on Thursday because there was a general avoidance of risk across the markets.

However, it couldn't fully recover the ground it lost the previous day against other major currencies like the euro, yen, and sterling, mainly because the Federal Reserve's recent announcement was not as aggressive as some investors had anticipated.

The euro remained stable at 1.1704 (a two-month high) after a significant gain on Wednesday, and the British pound held steady at 1.13374 following a similar rise. The dollar also continued to weaken against the Japanese yen, dipping 0.14% to 155.8 yen.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached its strongest level against the dollar in nearly a month, trading at 0.7992 per dollar.

The Australian dollar suffered from the same risk-aversion trend, falling 0.5% to 0.6644. Reflecting the broad drop in risk appetite,

Bitcoin briefly fell below the 90,000 mark, and Ether dropped more than 4% to 3,200..

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Oil prices declined on Thursday as investors redirected their attention toward two main events: the ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the potential consequences of the US seizing an oil tanker that had been sanctioned off the Venezuelan coast.

These factors led to a decrease in prices. Specifically, Brent crude futures dropped by 81 cents, or 1.3%, settling at 61.40/barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude also fell by 78 cents, or 1.3%, to 57.68/barrel.

Gold prices dropped slightly on Thursday, moving away from a high point reached earlier in the week. This dip occurred because the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was not unanimously supported, leaving investors uncertain about how quickly the central bank will continue to lower rates next year.

However, in contrast, silver hit a new record high. Specifically, spot gold fell 0.4% to 4,210.88/oz, though it had briefly reached its highest price since December 5th earlier in the trading session.

Meanwhile, US gold futures for February delivery saw a small increase of 0.3% to 4,238.10/oz.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

The European session will be quiet from a data perspective. There are Turkish interest rates and the OPEC monthly report which will be released and could stoke some volatility.

The US session will be busier though with Canadian and US trade balance data, Initial jobless claims and the NVIDIA senate bill coming into focus.

None of the above are expected to be massive market moving events and attention will now turn to inputs from the November jobs data next Tuesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday was likely the most significant event that could positively impact the markets before the end of the year. Since that event has now passed, the US dollar might start to experience its typical seasonal weakness as the year concludes. This could cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gradually fall toward the 98.00 level.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic

Chart of the Day - DAX Index

From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has held above the key confluence level at 24000 for the last four trading days.

This could be seen as both positive and potentially slightly concerning. The failure to push higher means bulls are hesitant to push on and a lot of this is likely down to the FOMC meeting.

The post FOMC reaction has been rather tentative and not had a major impact on the DAX for now.

The period-14 RSI is eyeing a retest of the neutral 50 level. A bounce off this level could give bulls some optimism as it does hint that bullish momentum remains intact for now.

Immediate resistance rests at 24200 before the swing high just above the 24400 handle comes into focus.

Immediate support rests at 24000 before the swing high at 23880 and the 20-day MA at 23667 come into focus.

DAX Index Index Daily Chart, December 11, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Key takeaways

Post-FOMC optimism faded fast, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures reversing sharply on renewed US–China tensions and concerns over AI-related export violations tied to DeepSeek.

Sentiment worsened after Oracle’s 11.5% after-hours plunge, as weak revenue reignited worries over stretched AI valuations and dragged index futures lower.

Despite the pullback, Nasdaq 100 technicals remain constructive, with improving market breadth and key supports holding, keeping the medium-term bullish reversal bias intact.
MP OEL_MultiAsset_Variant2

The post-FOMC rally quickly fizzled in today’s Asia session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures falling -0.8% and -1.1%, effectively wiping out Wednesday’s gains.

The pullback appears driven by renewed US-China geopolitical tension after reports that Chinese AI firm DeepSeek obtained smuggled Nvidia Blackwell chips, hardware banned for export to China, to build its next-generation model.

Sentiment was further hit by an 11.5% plunge in Oracle’s after-hours trading following weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue, reigniting concerns over stretched AI valuations and feeding into index futures weakness.

Despite the current intraday weak sentiment in the US futures, technicals are not suggesting the potential start of a medium-term downtrend phase for the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s dive deeper into several technical elements that are still constructively bullish.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth has improved in the past three weeks

Fig. 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above 20-day & 50-day moving averages as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Based on the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages, there has been a significant improvement since 17 November 2025, after the three-week down move seen in the Nasdaq 100 from its current all-time high in late October 2025, triggered by AI bubble fears and weakness in the share price of Nvidia ex-post earnings.

The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day moving average has surged to 65%, up sharply from 23% on 17 November 2025.

Similarly, the proportion trading above the 50-day moving average has risen to 56%, from 28% on 17 November 2025, though at a more gradual pace (see Fig. 1).

Peferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) – Bullish reversal remains intact

Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 11 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The potential bullish reversal that has taken form on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) since the 21 November 2025 low of 23,840 remains intact.

Medium-term pivotal support rests on 25,165 to maintain the bullish bias, and a clearance above 25,745 potential upside trigger level, is likely to increase the odds of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence to retest the current all-time high at 26,288 before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 26,480/26,545 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• Price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index continue to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 26 November 2025.
• The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has pulled back and just staged a rebound right above a key ascending support, which suggests a potential medium-term bullish momentum revival for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

Failure to hold at the 25,165 key medium-term pivotal support invalidates the bullish scenario to kick-start a deeper corrective decline on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index to retest the next medium-term supports at 24,540 and 24,000 (critical swing low areas of 10 October 2025 and 21 November 2025).

The GBP/USD pair advanced to 1.3367 on Thursday, stabilising near its highest level since 22 October. Sterling is drawing support from a confluence of factors: a broadly weaker US dollar and a market reassessment that has scaled back expectations for additional Bank of England (BoE) monetary easing in 2026.

This follows yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where the US central bank delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut. Crucially, the Fed signalled a potential pause in its easing cycle as early as January, emphasising the need for more economic data before determining the next steps.

Expectations for the BoE’s meeting next week remain firmly anchored. The market continues to price in an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, largely overlooking recent data showing accelerating wage growth and persistent inflationary pressures. Furthermore, investors are almost fully pricing in a second rate cut by June, with a 75% chance assigned to an initial move as soon as April.

Market focus now shifts to the UK’s monthly GDP report, due on Friday, which could prompt a final adjustment to monetary policy expectations ahead of the BoE decision.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD exhibits a strong upward bias, trading just below the key technical resistance at 1.3392. The pair’s position firmly above the middle Bollinger Band confirms the dominance of buyers. The expansion of the upper band signals rising volatility and suggests the market is building momentum for another attempt to breach this barrier.

A decisive breakout and close above 1.3392 would be a significant bullish development, opening the path towards the next resistance zone of 1.3420–1.3452. Should a reversal occur, the nearest notable support is at 1.3280. A breach of this level would indicate a deeper corrective phase, likely targeting the lower Bollinger Band.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is undergoing a near-term correction following its impulsive rise to the 1.3390–1.3392 resistance zone. It is currently finding support above 1.3360, a level from which a prior recovery originated.

The upper Bollinger Band has flattened after a period of sharp expansion, indicating short-term overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a consolidation or shallow pullback. Despite this, the overall H1 structure remains bullish, with the price above the middle band and the lower band providing dynamic support.

A sustained break above 1.3392 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, targeting 1.3420 and potentially 1.3450. Conversely, a loss of the 1.3360 support would be the first technical sign of weakening bullish momentum, potentially triggering a correction towards the next demand zone in the 1.3300–1.3280 range.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is trading with conviction, supported by shifting central-bank dynamics that have turned modestly in sterling’s favour. The technical setup is bullish but faces a critical test at the 1.3392 resistance level. A successful breakout would validate the strength of the current move, while a rejection could see the pair retreat to consolidate recent gains. The upcoming UK GDP data will provide the final fundamental cue before the highly anticipated BoE meeting next week.

Following yesterday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply to point A.

On one hand, the 0.25% rate cut makes the dollar less attractive for capital preservation and yield. On the other, the prospect of a pause before further cuts provides some support.

Thus, the current level represents the market’s attempt to establish a fair valuation for the US currency.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

Three days ago, we:

→ updated the system of two trend channels;

→ noted signs of seller dominance;

→ highlighted the formation of a consolidation zone.

Yesterday’s decline prompted an extension of the blue upward channel formed in October–November. Key insights from recent price action include:

→ the consolidation zone (marked by black lines) was broken after the median of the red channel acted as resistance (indicated by the arrow);

→ the price fell to the lower boundary of the red channel;

→ the former support around 98.78 acted as resistance this morning (marked by the second arrow);

→ the RSI indicator is near oversold levels, reflecting ongoing selling pressure.

Considering the above, a scenario of further downward movement along the lower boundary of the red channel seems plausible. If this develops, the price may fall to the lower boundary of the blue channel, which could serve as a key support level.

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The Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) showed sharp volatility yesterday following the interest rate announcement. The market action can be interpreted as follows:

→ First, the FOMC decision was released: as expected, the Federal Funds Rate was cut from 4.00% to 3.75% (a bullish catalyst), which pushed the index up towards point A.

→ However, half an hour later Jerome Powell’s press conference began, and his tone was noticeably hawkish (a bearish catalyst). The Fed Chair signalled that the rate-cutting cycle has been paused because inflation remains elevated and additional labour-market data is needed. As a result, the index fell sharply from point A to the low at point B.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump criticised the Fed’s decision, arguing that rates should be cut far more aggressively. This adds to uncertainty, especially given expectations that Powell will leave his post in May 2026.

Bearish pressure on the tech index intensified further after Oracle’s earnings release — see yesterday’s post for details. The results disappointed investors, fuelling renewed talk of an AI bubble, and ORCL shares plunged around 11% in after-hours trading.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart

Looking at recent price action in the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the index appears to be forming a bearish Rounding Top pattern:

→ The peak at point A resembles a bull trap, as the price only slightly exceeded the December highs before reversing — in SMC terms, a sign of a bearish liquidity grab.

→ The price then broke support from several recent sessions around 25,570 after forming a large bearish candle (marked by the arrow). This indicates strong selling pressure (a market imbalance) and the area may now act as resistance.

It is possible that bulls will attempt to recover some of yesterday’s losses today. However, if any rebound stalls near this resistance zone, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) may continue to drift lower along a rounding downward trajectory.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market overview

The crypto market cap has been in a see-saw pattern over the past three weeks, exhibiting a gentle uptrend that has returned to the $3.08 trillion level during a consolidation phase. With no clear trend, crypto traders have reduced their activity in altcoins, waiting for the trend to recover in the first cryptocurrency and key stock indices.

Bitcoin jumped to $94.5K on Wednesday evening in response to the Fed’s announcement of a bond-buying programme and a key rate cut. But this link to stocks played a cruel joke. The fall in Oracle shares dragged the Nasdaq-100 to eight-day lows, and BTC rolled back to $90K. The market is testing the strength of the modest uptrend that has been forming since 21 November. A drop below $88K would break this trend, bolster bearish sentiment and confirm the end of the recovery rally.

News background

Public and private companies have increased their Bitcoin reserves by 448% since the beginning of the year to 1.08 million BTC, according to Glassnode. The corporate sector remains a key driver of demand for digital gold.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes that large companies buying cryptocurrency for long-term storage could prevent BTC from falling 75-90% as it has in the past.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor announced the company’s plans to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. Mayside Partners believes that such plans are economically unsound. This is not innovation, but cascading leverage on speculative collateral — a model that has failed time and time again.

The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) has called on the US Senate to withdraw the cryptocurrency bill on ‘responsible financial innovation,’ which will be considered next week. The organisation pointed to the risks to pension savings and the country’s economy.

Twenty One Capital, a big Bitcoin holder, has entered the stock market. The company’s shares fell 20% on their first day of trading on the NYSE. The firm ranks third among public holders of the first cryptocurrency with 42,000 BTC (~$3.9 billion).

SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, as widely expected, and reiterated its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary. The hold reflects the bank’s assessment that current conditions do not justify a shift, even as inflation undershot expectations.

In its statement, the SNB noted that inflation has been slightly weaker than anticipated in recent months, but emphasized that medium-term pressures are “virtually unchanged” compared with September. The conditional inflation forecast is marginally lower in the near term but shows little change beyond that. The Bank now sees inflation averaging 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, based on the assumption of a 0% policy rate throughout the forecast horizon.

The economic outlook for Switzerland has "improved slightly", helped by reduced U.S. tariffs and a modestly better global backdrop. SNB now expects GDP to grow just under 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, though it cautioned that unemployment is likely to edge higher.

Full SNB statement here.

The Swiss National Bank is leaving the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. The SNB remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.

Inflation in recent months has been slightly lower than expected. In the medium term, however, inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the last monetary policy assessment. The monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability.

Inflation has declined slightly since the last monetary policy assessment. It decreased from 0.2% in August to 0.0% in November. Lower inflation in the hotel industry, as well as for rents and clothing, contributed in particular to this decline.

Inflationary pressure in the medium term is virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Although the conditional inflation forecast is somewhat lower in the short term than in September, there is only little change in the medium term. The forecast is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon (cf. chart). It puts average annual inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.3% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027 (cf. table). The forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon.

Global economic growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter. Although US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on the global economy, economic development in many countries has thus far remained more resilient than had been assumed. Inflation remained elevated in the US, while in the euro area it was close to target.

In its baseline scenario, the SNB anticipates that growth in the global economy will be moderate over the coming quarters. Inflation in the US is likely to remain elevated for some time. In the euro area, on the other hand, inflation is expected to stay close to target.

Uncertainty has decreased somewhat compared to the last monetary policy assessment. That said, the baseline scenario for the global economy is still subject to significant risks. For example, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty could yet weigh more heavily on global economic momentum than observed thus far. It is also possible that trade barriers may be raised again. At the same time, however, it cannot be ruled out that the global economy will continue to develop better than expected in the coming quarters.

Swiss GDP contracted in the third quarter. The decline was due in particular to the pharmaceuticals industry. Value added there had risen strongly in the first quarter because deliveries to the US had been brought forward in anticipation of possible tariffs. There was a countermovement in the second quarter, which continued in the third quarter. Value added rose slightly in the other manufacturing industries and in services. Owing to this subdued economic development overall, unemployment has risen further in recent months.

The economic outlook for Switzerland has improved slightly due to the lower US tariffs and somewhat better development globally. For 2025 as a whole, the SNB expects GDP growth of just under 1.5%. For 2026, it expects growth of around 1%. In this environment, unemployment is likely to continue to rise somewhat.

The main risk to the economic outlook for Switzerland is the development of the global economy.