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EURCHF: ⬇️ Sell

• EURCHF reversed from resistance area
•  Likely to fall to support level 0.9300

EURCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the resistance area between the resistance level 0.9390 (former monthly high from September), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from April.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor ABC correction ii from November.

Given the overbought daily Stochastic and clear daily downtrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.9300.

CHFJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• CHFJPY reversed from pivotal support level 192.60
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 195.50

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the pivotal support level 192.60 (former monthly high from October) and the support trendline of the daily up channel from October.

The upward reversal from this support zone started the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of November.

Given the overriding uptrend on the daily charts, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 195.50 (which stopped wave 1).

Summary

• As expected, the FOMC reduced the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% and signaled that additional easing will face a higher bar at its next meeting on January 28.
• The post meeting statement signaled this higher bar to future cuts by noting it was now considering the "extent and timing" of additional adjustments. The suggestion that the FOMC would not be so ready to cut the policy rate again in the near term likely helped to limit the number of hawkish dissents to two (Presidents Goolsbee and Schmid). Governor Miran again dissented in favor of a 50 bps cut.
• Despite two hawkish dissents and the dot plot revealing four other regional bank presidents preferred to hold the policy rate steady today, the Committee maintains an easing bias. The updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the median estimate for the policy rate at the end of next year to be 3.375%, unchanged from September.
• The expectation among most members to ease next year reflects projections for the unemployment rate to be a touch above most participants' estimate for full employment next year, while inflation resumes its progress back toward—albeit not all the way to—the FOMC’s 2% target. The Q4-2026 median projection for the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4%, while the median estimate for headline and core PCE inflation ticked down to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. More noticeable was the median estimate for GDP growth next year rising half a percentage point to 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, putting it closer to our above-consensus estimate of 2.5%.
• There is a slew of economic data between now and the next meeting on January 28, and we will be monitoring it closely and adjusting our forecast as conditions warrant. Our base case remains that the current easing cycle is not over yet but rather that it is entering a slower phase. We continue to look for two more 25 bps cuts from the FOMC next year at the March and June meetings.
• The Federal Reserve also announced the beginning of reserve management purchases (RMPs) in an effort to maintain short-term interest rate control, keep bank reserves ample and ensure the smooth functioning of financial markets. Fed officials have been clear for months that this step in no way represents a change in the stance of monetary policy. We agree with this assessment, and the beginning of RMPs will have no bearing on our view of the stance of monetary policy.

A Cut to Close out the Year

As expected, the FOMC reduced the fed funds target range by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% at the conclusion of its December meeting. As was also anticipated, the decision was not unanimous. Three voting members did not support the policy decision, with dissents registered in both a more hawkish and dovish direction. Specifically, Governor Miran dissented in favor of a steeper, 50 bps cut, while Presidents Schmid (Kansas City) and Goolsbee (Chicago) dissented in favor in keeping the policy rate unchanged.

The dispersed views on the best course of action reflect the tricky environment the FOMC finds itself in. The FOMC did not have several key readings on the economy as originally scheduled due to the government shutdown (e.g., Q3 GDP, Oct. & Nov. Employment Situation and CPI, etc.). But, the latest data available continue to indicate some tension in the Committee’s employment and inflation mandates (Figures 1 & 2).

With 75 bps of cuts since September and policy not as clearly restrictive, the bar for additional easing has been raised. In the post meeting statement, the Committee gave itself more optionality around future cuts, saying that "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range...", with the emphasized text new to the statement. The suggestion that the FOMC will not be so ready to cut rates again in the near term likely helped to limit the number of hawkish dissents.

The Summary of Economic Projections did signal some broader unease among the Committee besides the two hawkish dissents. The dot plot revealed that six participants in total did not favor reducing the policy rate at today's meeting, implying four non-voting regional presidents also preferred to hold the policy rate steady. Nonetheless, a bias toward further easing persists among the Committee. The median dot for year-end 2026 and 2027 remained at 3.375% and 3.125%, respectively. The longer-run median was unchanged at 3.00%, with the dot plot illustrating that all but two participants see the current policy rate at least somewhat restrictive.

The biggest change to the SEP was a major upward revision to the 2026 growth outlook, with the median projection rising from 1.8% to 2.3%. Some of this change likely reflects the government shutdown, with Q4-2025 real GDP growth expected to see a material drag, setting the economy up for a bounce-back in Q4-2026. That said, this dynamic cannot fully explain the change, and it puts the median FOMC participant closer to our above-consensus forecast of 2.5% real GDP growth next year. Elsewhere, the changes generally were smaller, with some modest downward revisions to the inflation forecasts next year, and no change to the median longer run projections for the real GDP growth and the unemployment rate.

The Federal Reserve also announced that it will begin growing its balance sheet again in the coming days through the purchase of Treasury bills. As we have discussed previously, these purchases are meant to maintain short-term interest rate control, keep bank reserves ample and ensure the smooth functioning of financial markets. Fed officials have been clear for months that this step in no way represents a change in the stance of monetary policy. We agree with this assessment, and the beginning of reserve management purchases (RMPs) will have no bearing on our view of the stance of monetary policy.

Specifically, the central bank announced that RMPs will begin on December 12 with an initial pace of $40 billion for the month. The post-meeting guidance stated that "the pace of RMPs will remain elevated for a few months to offset expected large increases in non-reserve liabilities in April. After that, the pace of total purchases will likely be significantly reduced in line with expected seasonal patterns in Federal Reserve liabilities." Our working assumption has been that the medium term, "equilibrium" pace of RMPs will be $25 billion per month to keep bank reserves ample. We read the above guidance as indicating that RMPs will downshift to roughly this pace starting in the spring. If realized, the Fed's balance sheet will grow by roughly $370 billion in 2026, and the reserve-to-GDP ratio will be 9.7% at the end of next year, comfortably above the lows in September 2019 when repo markets blew up (Figure 6).

Our base case remains that the current easing cycle is not over yet but rather that it is entering a slower phase. While the labor market is far from collapsing, the softening in conditions to the wrong side of "maximum employment" supports policy returning to a more neutral position. Directional progress on inflation next year should resume as the initial lift from tariffs fade, which would reduce the tension between the FOMC's employment and inflation mandate. We continue to look for two 25 bps rate cuts next year at the March and June meetings. Next week's economic data, specifically the "one and a half" employment report on Tuesday and the November CPI on Thursday, will be key to the outlook. We will have reports out previewing these data releases in the coming days.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. The move comes after consecutive quarter-point cuts at each of the prior two meetings.

There were minimal changes to the statement. However, a slight tweak to the reference to further rate cuts reinforced a more hawkish tone. The bolded portion reflects the revised verbiage: "In considering the extent and timing of additional policy adjustments to the target range" – suggesting a higher bar for further policy easing.

The statement also noted that, "the Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserve on an ongoing basis".

Accompanying the statement, the FOMC also released a revised set of economic forecasts, known as the "Summary of Economic Projections" (SEP). The SEP represents the median of the individual forecasts submitted by each of the FOMC participants. Relative to the September update:

• The median projection for real GDP growth – as measured on Q4/Q4 basis – was upgraded to 1.7% (previously 1.6%) in 2025, 2.3% in 2026 (previously 1.8%) and 2.0% (previously 1.9%) in 2027. The long-term outlook remained unchanged at 1.8%.
• The median year-end unemployment forecast for 2025 and 2026 were unchanged at 4.5%, and 4.4%, respectively, while 2027 was nudged lower to 4.2% (previously 4.3%).
• Core PCE inflation – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – was revised a touch lower to 3.0% for 2025 (previously 3.1%) and to 2.5% in 2026 (previously 2.6%) but was unchanged at 2.1% for 2027.
• Lastly, the median projection for the federal funds rate was kept unchanged and suggest just one additional quarter-point cut in both 2026 and 2027.

Nine of the twelve FOMC members voted in favor of today's decision. Stephen Miran (again) dissented in favor of a larger 50 bps cut, while Jeffrey Schmid and Austan Goolsbee voted for no change to the policy rate this meeting. The last time there were three dissenters at a policy decision was in 2019.

Key Implications

A lot of ink had been spilt leading up to today's announcement of whether the Fed would or would not cut rates for a third consecutive meeting. While the FOMC ultimately decided to push forward with another cut, the statement and accompanying projections had a hawkish tilt, suggesting a higher bar for future rate cuts. This view is likely to be further reinforced by Chair Powell at the press conference, which will start at 2:30 PM ET.

Fed futures were little changed following the announcement, with the next cut not fully priced until June – a view that aligns to our forecast. But it's hard to have much conviction in that call in the absence of timely economic data. November's employment and CPI reports (to be released on December 16th and 18th, respectively) will shed some much-needed light on recent hiring and inflation trends and could materially shift our view and market pricing on the extent and timing of further policy easing. Stay tuned!

The Fed cut interest rates by 25bps to 3.50–3.75%, fully in line with expectations. The decision was done by a three way split. Governor Stephen Miran again voting for a larger 50bps reduction. Meanwhile Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid voted for no change. All other policymakers supported the quarter-point move.

The new projections signaled remarkable continuity. The federal funds rate path was left unchanged, with policymakers still expecting the policy rate to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026, then 3.10% by the end of 2027, and remain there through 2028. This implies one 25bps cut per year in both 2026 and 2027.

Growth expectations, however, were revised meaningfully higher. GDP is now projected to expand 2.3% in 2026, up from 1.8% previously, and to grow 2.0% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028. Labor-market projections were largely steady, with unemployment expected to be 4.4% in 2026, unchanged from prior forecasts. The rate for 2027 was nudged down from 4.3% to 4.2%, with 2028 left at 4.2%. Policymakers continue to signal a soft-landing baseline, where job markets cool without a material rise in unemployment.

Inflation projections were modestly lowered. Headline PCE is now expected at 2.4% in 2026, down from 2.6%, while the forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remain at 2.1% and 2.0%. Core PCE was trimmed to 2.5% for 2026 and left unchanged thereafter.

Full Fed statement and SEP.

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

The Bank of Canada delivered a well-telegraphed, widely-expected hold today, keeping the overnight rate at 2.25%—the bottom of the neutral range and where we expect it will remain through the end of 2026.

The decision was after upward GDP revisions in the Q3 GDP release dating back to 2022, and a string of positive labour market surprises that saw a key indicator of the output gap, the Canadian unemployment rate, drop from 7.1% in September to 6.5% in November.

As much as recent data has been encouraging, we see it as reaffirming our cautiously optimistic base case rather than a fundamental shift in the Canadian economic outlook, and continue to expect a gradual recovery in the economy and labour market supported by the 275 bp rate reduction from the BoC since June 2024.

That outlook broadly aligns with the BoC's. Governor Macklem said in the press conference to expect modest growth and slow absorption of economic slack, while reiterating its holding bias.

Looking back, Canadian economic growth has already tracked toward the more optimistic end of the range of possibilities that the BoC projected in April, thanks to a combination of CUSMA exemptions shielding the bulk of goods exports to the U.S., and underlying resilience in household spending.

With that, we think the BoC is done with rate cuts, and that the next change in interest rates is more likely to be a hike. Our base case assumes this won't occur until 2027, but risks are tilted toward an earlier move.

What are the risks that could lead inflation to deviate from 2%?

BoC’s assessment that today’s policy rate is “at the right level” rests on a key assumption that “ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade”, leaving inflation tracking around the 2% target.

We agree with that assessment, but have also argued that robust consumer demand growth could keep underlying price pressures elevated next year.

By most measures, the economy still has excess supply—it can produce more than is currently demanded. This creates downward pressure on inflation as businesses compete for limited demand. Still, recent data already suggests a smaller (albeit still negative) output gap than previously expected.

Consumer purchases have also broadly held onto resilience this year and could remain a source of strength if not upside risks to our growth and inflation forecast in 2026, following improvements in labour market conditions. That could lessen the disinflationary pressures relative to what was expected.

Offsetting that is the cost of "trade reconfiguration"—Canadian producers are not directly paying tariffs, but still face cost increases for managing trade complications, investing in alternative sources or partners, and absorbing higher prices from U.S. counterparts through integrated supply chains.

On both fronts, we see risks mostly tilted towards more inflationary pressures, not less. If either of those risks were to materialize more tangibly, risks of BoC rate hikes as early as H2 2026 rise.

Cryptocurrencies have traded up and down over the past week following a rough correction across the board.

*By the way, the Bank of Canada Press Conference is currently ongoing for those interesting, you can access it right here – No Cut for the BoC, 2.25% rate unchanged*

While key long-term support levels arrested the steep decline and dip-buyers stepped in, the market failed to hold its highs despite a strong session yesterday.

This afternoon's event will be critical for all asset classes, including crypto. Here is why:

FOMC events often trigger sharp swings between risk-on and risk-off sentiment.

As risk assets, cryptocurrencies often correlate with equities.

For example, during the 2023 hiking cycle, risk assets dumped lower, triggering massive selloffs in the crypto market.

Rate-cutting cycles typically boost non-yielding assets like Gold and Bitcoin.

On a straightforward basis, a cut should support higher prices, though the reaction will depend heavily on whether the Fed's guidance for 2026 is dovish.

If today's (highly probable) rate cut fuels risk appetite, Bitcoin and its peers should rise.

If sentiment becomes ecstatic, expect memecoins and altcoins to outperform; if the mood is positive but measured, look for market leaders like Bitcoin (BTC) , Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) to lead the charge.

As a matter of fact, let's explore the intraday charts and levels for these three crypto leaders to prepare for the rate decision, coming up in about three hours.

Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum Technical Analysis

Bitcoin 8H Chart and levels

Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin rallied a strong 14% since reaching its $80,563 lows on November 21, bringing back intermediate momentum into balance (from heavily bearish).

Still, the chart doesn't point to immediate bullish domination – The RSI is going sideways. This arises particularly as sellers appeared at the highs of the bear channel, keep an eye on this one.

The dip-buying was a technical one, with the Crypto Leader retest its long-term support levels as seen in our previous analysis.

Things might change today however

FOMC Scenarios:

• A daily close above $94,000 points to a continued break higher. If the rest of the Market follows suit, a new uptrend might be found. A yearly close above $100,000 confirms the return of a long-term bullish environment.
• Hanging close within the $88,000 to $92,000 maintains the current hesitant picture.
• Close below $88,000 however may relaunch the bearish trend which can be dangerous for the Market outlook.

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels

• $88,000 to $92,000 major support turned Pivot (testing
• November lows $80,563
• $85,000 mini Support (+/- $500)
• Liberation Day Support $75,000 to $80,000

Resistance Levels

• mini-resistance around $94,000
• Swing highs from yesterday $94,657 and highs to break
• $98,000 to $100,000 Main Resistance
• Resistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart and levels

Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The idea is the same for Ethereum, but the breakout has been even-more solid.

Hence, traders may expect ETH outperformance if today's FOMC is bullish.

In a bearish case, ETH and other altcoins should outperform.

FOMC Scenarios:

• In a bullish session, a close above $3,400 continues the more bullish momentum found recently. Keep track of the upward trendline in this case.
• In a balanced FOMC session, prices should maintain between $3,000 to $3,300 indicating that traders will be looking to learn more – Rangebound action in this case.
• In a bearish session, ETH should close below $3,000 and relaunch the bearish prospects.

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels

• $3,000 Psychological level and Pivot (+ 50 MA)
• $2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)
• $2,620 Recent Lows
• $2,100 June War support
• $1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels

• $3,400 Tuesday highs
• $3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs
• $3,800 September lows
• $4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

Solana (SOL) 8H Chart and levels

Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Solana has rebounded but still struggles to find upside momentum, holding its mid-October downwards channel.

The third largest crypto maintains a rangebound price action between $125 to $145.

FOMC Scenarios:

• Bullish case: Solana closes above $145 which would imply a return in the Crypto, and should increase odds of a channel breakout ($155 is the level to look)
• Neutral case: The crypto holds its ongoing range, not so bad considering how bearish the previous momentum was. It also holds the line for a future rebound
• Bearish case: Solana closes at the lows of its range, which may trigger a further selloff.

Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:

Support Levels

• Main Support $125 to $130 (Range lows)
• $110 to $115 Support
• Weekly lows $123
• Support 3: $100 to $105

Resistance Levels

• $140 to $150 Major Pivot (Range Highs)
• Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170
• $180 to $190 Resistance
• Psychological level $200 to $205
• $253 Cycle highs

Safe Trades!

Silver hit new record high ($61.59) on Wednesday, in extension of Tuesday’s strong acceleration higher which resulted in a daily gain of 4.5% and break through psychological $60 barrier.

Silver continues to benefit from strong demand for safe haven, as well as an evident disbalance between industrial demand and supply.

Silver’s sharp rise in past six months was steeper than advance of gold that continued to push gold – silver ratio lower (in June, one ounce of gold was buying around a hundred ounces of silver, while today only 69 ounces of silver were needed to buy an ounce of yellow metal.

Today’s slight easing from new all-time high could be seen rather as positioning for further advance than as stronger pullback, as markets widely expect 25 basis rate cut by Fed and many anticipate that the US policymakers may adopt more dovish stance on rates in coming months (due to significant weakening in the labor sector and also that further easing in monetary policy is President Trump’s preferred scenario).

Broken $60 level now reverted to solid support which so far holds today’s action, with potential deeper dips to find firm ground above $58 (rising 10DMA) to keep bulls intact.

The price currently rides on the third wave of five-wave cycle from $45.53 (Oct 28 low) and probed through 138.2% Fibonacci expansion ($60.95).

Bulls eye targets at $62 (psychological) and $63.05 (Fibo 161.8% expansion).

Res: 61.59; 62.00; 63.05; 64.00
Sup: 60.00; 58.98; 58.00; 57.54