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EURJPY has been in quiet trading mode over the past couple of days, being constrained within the 144.00-144.88 zone. The pair lost momentum after its impressive rebound stuck around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 148.38-137.37 downleg last week.

Overbought conditions have yet to be confirmed. Although the Stochastic oscillator looks for a downside reversal after peaking above 80, the rising RSI has yet to reach its 70 overbought level. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to strengthen within the positive area, reflecting improving market sentiment.

Yet, for the recovery to continue, the bulls will need to pierce through the 144.88 wall and enter the broken bullish channel above 145.35. If that turns out to be the case, the pair would next target the channel’s upper boundary seen around 148.40 and near October’s top. Breaking that ceiling, the spotlight will immediately fall on the 150.00 psychological level, where the pair peaked in 2014.

Alternatively, a close below 144.00 could activate fresh selling pressures, bringing the 50% Fibonacci mark of 142.88 under the spotlight. Failure to hold here could squeeze the price straight to the crucial support trendline, which has been holding up the market for more than a year now. Notably, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 141.58 are also in the neighborhood. Hence, a decisive step lower is expected to press the price aggressively towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 139.97.

In brief, EURJPY is trading neutral at the moment, with investors likely waiting for a clear break above the 144.88-145.35 region or below 144.00 to direct the market accordingly.

The EUR/USD pair is trading close to the 1.0900 level on the first Tuesday of April. The market is taking into consideration the latest data on the Core PCE index, which grew by only 0.3% m/m in February, lower than the expected figures. The year-to-year data also dropped by 5.0%, which could be a reason for the Federal Reserve System to pause in its monetary policy tightening.

Despite the fact that no meetings of the Fed management are scheduled for April, investors will keep a close eye on important statistics from the US this week. This includes the PMI in services and production, the factory orders report, and the employment market statistics of last month.

Looking at the technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair has formed a structure of a declining impulse to 1.0788 on H4, and the market is currently consolidating above this level. There is a possibility of a link of growth to 1.0850, followed by a decline to 1.0707, from where the wave could extend to 1.0595. The MACD confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and aiming downwards to renew the lows.

On H1, the EUR/USD pair has completed the structure of a declining wave to 1.0788, and a consolidation range is forming above this level. The price is expected to break the range upwards, reaching 1.0850, and then decline to 1.0697. The target is local, and this is only half of the declining wave. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line near 50, expected to grow to 80 and then fall to 20.

Overall, the market is closely monitoring the data releases from the US this week and waiting for further signals from the Federal Reserve System to make a weighted decision on its monetary policy.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0822; (P) 1.0869; (R1) 1.0951; More...

EUR/USD's breach of 1.0929 suggests rally resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1032 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273 fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.0787 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0711 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress with 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0460 intact. The strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.0625) was also a medium term bullish sign. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2320; (P) 1.2372; (R1) 1.2470; More...

GBP/USD's rally today and break of 1.2445/6 indicates resumption of whole rise from 1.3051. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2759 fibonacci level. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. On the downside, break of 1.2273 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9097; (P) 0.9146; (R1) 0.9177; More...

Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged as corrective pattern from 0.9058 low is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.9474 fibonacci level. On the downside, firm break of 0.9058 will resume larger down trend from 1.1046.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) should still be in progress with 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 intact. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Break of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.83; (P) 132.79; (R1) 133.38; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 133.73. Overall, rise from 129.62 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 127.20. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 133.34) will target 137.90 resistance. On the downside, break of 131.75 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 129.62 first. Break there will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6695; (P) 0.6742; (R1) 0.6834; More...

AUD/USD retreats mildly after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.7156 to 0.6563 at 0.6790. But further rise remains in favor. Firm break of 0.6790 will extend the rise from 0.6563 short term bottom to 61.8% retracement at 0.6929. However, break of 0.6650 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6563 low again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3386; (P) 1.3462; (R1) 1.3511; More....

USD/CAD's fall from 1.3860 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. This decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3976. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.3224/61 support zone. But strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound. Still, break of 1.3563 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline first. Or further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.3282) is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.60; (P) 164.26; (R1) 165.08; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 165.99 resume the whole rebound from 155.33 to 169.26 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 162.95 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias to the downside for 158.24 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.68; (P) 144.31; (R1) 144.99; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation below 145.56 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Rebound from 137.37 could be extending. On the upside, break of 145.66 will target 148.38 high. However, break of 143.12 minor support will mix up the outlook again and turn bias to the downside for 138.81 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.