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Germany Ifo Business Climate rose form 91.1 to 93.3 in March, above expectation of 92.0. That's also the fifth consecutive rise. Current Assessment index rose from 93.9 to 95.4, above expectation of 94.0. Expectations index rose from 88.4 to 91.2, above expectation of 87.4.

By sector, manufacturing rose from 1.5 to 6.6. Services rose from 1.3 to 8.9. Trade ticked up from -10.6 to -10.0. Construction also improved from -19.0 to -17.9.

Ifo said, the upward development in business climate was "driven primarily by business expectations". "Despite turbulence at some international banks, the German economy is stabilizing," it added.

Full German Ifo release here.

Gold has experienced significant gains since early March mainly due to the turmoil observed in the global banking sector. Even though bullion posted a fresh one-year high of 2,010 in the previous week, it quickly retraced lower and has been moving sideways for the last few daily sessions.

The short-term oscillators currently suggest that bullish near-term forces are subsiding but remain in control. Specifically, the MACD histogram is softening but holds above zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is ticking downwards above its 50-neutral mark.

If the positive momentum fades and the price moves to the downside, the February resistance region of 1,959 could act as immediate support. Diving lower, the price could descend to challenge the recent low of 1,933. Should that barricade fail also, the 1,885 hurdle, which overlaps with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), might provide downside protection.

Alternatively, should gold resume its short-term advance, the bulls could initially aim at the crucial 2,000 psychological mark. A violation of that region may open the door for the one-year high of 2,010. Failing to stop there, further advances could then cease at the March 2022 high of 2,070 registered after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Overall, gold seems to be stuck in a rangebound pattern after its recent rally came to a halt. Hence, a break above the 2,010 ceiling is needed to revive bulls’ hopes for the continuation of gold’s uptrend.

The Dollar Index was steady in early Monday’s trading, following strong advance last Thu/Fri, sparked by fresh fears about crisis in banking sector, which sent bank shares sharply lower on Friday.

Investors remain concerned despite immediate action by authorities to contain the crisis and assurance that the US banking system was stable.

Growing fears lifted safe-haven dollar and so far offsetting negative impact from Fed’s policy decision last week, which markets saw as dovish.
The US central bank raised interest rates by 0.25% but comments from Chair Powell showed more cautious stance as policymakers try to balance the need for further raising of interest rates due to stubbornly high inflation and threats that this may significantly hurt the economy, exposed to increased stress on banking sector.

Daily technical studies on daily chart show prevailing bearish tone, as negative momentum continues to strengthen and moving averages are still in bearish configuration, though Tuesday’s daily Ichimoku cloud twist continues to attract near-term bulls, with last week’s long-tailed candle and weekly bear-trap under Fibo support at 102.64, generating initial positive signals.

Fresh bulls need to hold above cracked Fibo pivot at 102.55 (23.6% retracement of 105.85/101.53 bear-leg) to keep near-term bulls intact for attack at key 103.12/12 barriers (daily Tenkan-sen / Fibo 38.2% retracement), violation of which would firm the structure for further advance.

Res: 103.12; 103.18; 103.70; 104.20.
Sup: 102.55; 102.14; 101.88; 101.53.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.49; (P) 159.67; (R1) 161.07; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral again with current recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 163.32 resistance holds. Fall from 165.99 is seen as part of the whole fall from 172.11. Sustained break of 158.54 will argue that larger decline from 172.11 is resuming through 155.33 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.20; (P) 140.53; (R1) 141.99; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral first but risk stays on the downside as long as 143.61 resistance holds. Break of 138.81 will affirm the bearish case that fall from 145.55 is a leg inside the whole corrective decline from 148.38. Next target is 137.37 low, and then 135.40 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.58) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8774; (P) 0.8800; (R1) 0.8824; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point and outlook is mixed. On the upside, break of 0.8864 will target 0.8924 resistance first. Firm break there should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6139; (P) 1.6195; (R1) 1.6252; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Decisive break there of 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 will resume larger rally from 1.4281 to 1.6389 fibonacci level and then 1.6434 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6053 will indicate rejection by 1.6302 and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9851; (P) 0.9896; (R1) 0.9942; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.9837 minor support holds. Break of 0.9995 will affirm the case that correction from 1.0095 has completed at 0.9704. Further rally should be seen through 1.0040 to retest 1.0095 high. However, firm break of 0.9837 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9704 support instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.1002) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3701; (P) 1.3753; (R1) 1.3797; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3860 could extend. But further rally is expected as long as 1.3629 support holds. Firm break of 1.3860 will target 1.3976 high. However, break of 1.3629 will mix up the near term outlook and bring deeper pullback to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3584).

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3261 at 1.4234. Firm break there will pave the way to long term resistance zone at 1.4667/89 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, break of 1.3261 support is needed to confirm medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6615; (P) 0.6655; (R1) 0.6684; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside for 0.6563 low. Corrective recovery from there could have completed at 0.6758 already. Decisive break of 0.6546 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, however, break of 0.6758 resistance will now be a strong signal of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, as long as 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546 holds, the decline from 0.7156 is seen as a correction to rally from 0.6169 (2022 low) only. Another rise should still be seen through 0.7156 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6546 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.