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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9859; (P) 0.9903; (R1) 0.9931; More....

EUR/CHF's down trend is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.9650 long term projection level. On the upside, break of 1.0044 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA affirmed medium term bearishness. Long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0136; (P) 1.0207 (R1) 1.0251; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside and further fall should be seen to 1.0090 long term projection level. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity. On the upside, above 1.0276 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited below 1.0614 resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.0339 long term support (2017 low) indicates resumption of whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0786 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1868; (P) 1.1929; (R1) 1.1982; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays mildly on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.2666 to 1.1932 from 1.2405 at 1.1671. Break could prompt further downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 1.1217. On the upside, break of 1.2164 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2405 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.3103).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9673; (P) 0.9708; (R1) 0.9745; More...

Focus is staying on 0.9731 resistance in USD/CHF. Firm break there will argue that the consolidation from 1.0063 has completed and bring stronger rally back to retest 1.0063 high. However, another fall below 0.9493 will dampen this view and target 0.9459 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 1.0237/0342 resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds. However, sustained break of 0.9471 will extend long term range trading with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.24; (P) 135.63; (R1) 136.30; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range below 136.99 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 136.99 might be a medium term top too. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3007; (P) 1.3042; (R1) 1.3073; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point and further rise is mildly in favor with 1.2818 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3077 and sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications, and bring up trend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, break of 1.2818 minor support will bring deeper fall back to 1.2516 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6753; (P) 0.6790; (R1) 0.6817; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is staying neutral at this point. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to complete the whole correction from 0.8006, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

The stock markets are starting to display some resilience, despite hawkish FOMC minutes. US stocks managed to close higher after initial selloff. Nikkei is also showing some strength in Asian session. Dollar and Yen are retreating mildly while Aussie and Kiwi are trading higher. As for the week, Euro and Sterling remain the runaway loser, followed by Canadian. On the other hand, Aussie has overtaken the first place, followed by Dollar and then Yen.

Technically, as Aussie and Kiwi are displaying some resilience, focuses will be on AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Though, the more decisive moves could only come after tomorrow's non-farm payrolls. Anyway, AUD/USD is still defending 0.6756/60 cluster support. Break of 0.6918 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and raise the chance of bullish reversal. Similarly, break of 0.6251 minor resistance in NZD/USD should also bring rebound to 0.6395 resistance and possibly above.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is trading up 1.33%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.17%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.50%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.15%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0044 at 0.245. Overnight, DOW rose 0.23%. S&P 500 rose 0.36%. NASDAQ rose 0.35%. 10-year yield rose 0.104 to 2.913.

Fed minutes: As even more restrictive stance could be appropriate

In the minutes of the June 14–15 FOMC meeting, Fed noted, "participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist."

Also, "participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis."

"Many participants judged that a significant risk now facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted," the minutes noted.

Australia AiG services dropped to 48.8, two-speed pattern to gather pace

Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped -0.4 to 48.8 in June. Looking at some details, sales plummeted by -8.8 to 41.9. Employment surged 7.9 to 55.3. New orders ticked down by -0.8 to 58.9. Input prices rose 0.3 to 69.0. Selling prices rose 5.3 to 67.2. Averages jumped 10.3 to 67.7.

Innes Willox, Chief Executive Ai Group, said: "With interest rates rising for the first time in a decade, we have seen a 'two-speed' services sector emerge in June. Industries which are sensitive to sentiment changes – such as business & property, and personal & recreational services – declined into contraction. Less interest-rate-exposed services remained in a growth phase. With the RBA increasing rates by 50 basis points again this week, we would expect this two-speed pattern to gather pace."

Also from Australia, goods and services exports rose 9.5% mom to AUD 58.4B in May. Goods and services imports rose 5.8% mom to AUD 42.4B. Trade surplus widened from AUD 13.2B to AUD 16.0B.

Looking ahead

Swiss unemployment rate and foreign currency reserves, Germany industrial production will be released in European session. But ECB meeting accounts could catch most attention.

Later in the day, US will release ADP jobs, jobless claims and trade balance. Canada will also release trade balance.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6753; (P) 0.6790; (R1) 0.6817; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is staying neutral at this point. Strong support could still be seen from 0.6756/60 cluster support to complete the whole correction from 0.8006, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6918 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6461 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Strong support is expected from 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756 to complete the pattern. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. However firm break of 0.6756/60 will raise the chance of bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Economic Indicators Update

Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped -0.4 to 48.8 in June. Looking at some details, sales plummeted by -8.8 to 41.9. Employment surged 7.9 to 55.3. New orders ticked down by -0.8 to 58.9. Input prices rose 0.3 to 69.0. Selling prices rose 5.3 to 67.2. Averages jumped 10.3 to 67.7.

Innes Willox, Chief Executive Ai Group, said: "With interest rates rising for the first time in a decade, we have seen a 'two-speed' services sector emerge in June. Industries which are sensitive to sentiment changes – such as business & property, and personal & recreational services – declined into contraction. Less interest-rate-exposed services remained in a growth phase. With the RBA increasing rates by 50 basis points again this week, we would expect this two-speed pattern to gather pace."

Full release here.

In the minutes of the June 14–15 FOMC meeting, Fed noted, "participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist."

Also, "participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis."

"Many participants judged that a significant risk now facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted," the minutes noted.

Full minutes here.