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UK PMI surveys delivered a more constructive signal in December, pointing to firmer momentum at year-end. PMI Manufacturing jumped from 50.2 to 51.2, a 15-month high, while PMI Services rose from 51.3 to 52.1. PMI Composite also climbed to 52.1 from 51.2.

S&P Global noted that businesses were buoyed by the "post-Budget lifting of uncertainty". The survey is consistent with GDP growth accelerating to around 0.2% in December, though momentum for the fourth quarter as a whole remains more modest at roughly 0.1%.

Despite the improvement, growth remains uneven. Output and demand are still described as "lackluster overall", with expansion heavily reliant on technology and financial services. Many other sectors continue to struggle or remain in outright contraction. Job losses were reported as worryingly widespread, raising doubts over whether stronger orders will translate into renewed hiring, particularly with staff costs still cited as a major pressure.

Taken together, the PMI data supports expectations for a further rate cut at the December MPC meeting, while reinforcing that the path for additional easing in 2026 will remain highly data dependent.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 206.97; (P) 207.78; (R1) 208.47; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 208.92. Further rally is expected as long as 205.17 support holds. On the upside, break of 208.92 will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.84; (P) 182.44; (R1) 183.03; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 183.14. Further rally remains in favor as long as 180.07 support holds. But considering bearish divergence condition in both 4H and D MACD, upside should be limited 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, firm break of 180.07 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 178.84).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside should be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 170.73) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8774; (P) 0.8781; (R1) 0.8794; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and further decline is in mildly in favor with 0.8800 resistance intact. Below 0.8720 will target 0.8631 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). However, break of 0.8800 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8605) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7657; (P) 1.7682; (R1) 1.7726; More...

Immediate focus is on 55 D EMA (now at 1.7726) as rebound from 1.7477 extends. Sustained break there would argue that fall from 1.8160 has completed, and bring stronger rise back to 1.7976 resistance next. Rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Below 1.7477 will target 1.7245 support and possibly below. Overall, price actions from 1.8554 are seen as a corrective pattern that would still extend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7465) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Eurozone PMI data for December pointed to a clear loss of momentum heading into year-end. PMI Manufacturing slipped from 49.6 to 49.2, an eight-month low. PMI Services also eased from 53.6 to 52.6, dragging PMI Composite down from 53.8 to 51.9 and signaling a broader slowdown in activity.

According to Hamburg Commercial Bank, the weakness was driven mainly by Germany, where the industrial downturn intensified. France showed tentative signs of industrial stabilization, but that improvement was offset by stagnation in services. Germany’s service sector, by contrast, continued to expand solid. Overall, the data suggests that "the runway into the new year seems pretty unstable".

Cost inflation in the service sector accelerated to its highest level in nine months, reinforcing the ECB’s concern over wage-driven price pressures. With the central bank meeting on December 18 and closely monitoring services inflation, the PMI data is likely to validate its stated preference to leave interest rates unchanged, despite softer growth signals.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9341; (P) 0.9353; (R1) 0.9369; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9394. On the upside, break of 0.9394 will resume the rebound from 0.9178 to 0.9452 structural resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 0.9311 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9178 low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9316) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9278 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3748; (P) 1.3768; (R1) 1.3789; More...

A temporary low should be in place at 1.3746 and intraday bias is turned neutral in USD/CAD. With 1.3870 resistance intact, further decline remains in favor. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3768 will argue that whole fall form 1.4791 might be ready to resume. Retest of 1.3538 low should be seen next. On the upside, however, break of 1.3870 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6630; (P) 0.6643; (R1) 0.6655; More...

AUD/USD is staying in consolidations below 0.6685 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.6706 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.5913. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6555) will extend the corrective pattern from 0.6706 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 08006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.70; (P) 155.35; (R1) 155.85; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as corrective pattern from 157.88 is extending. On the downside, break of 154.33 will target 55 D EMA (now at 153.66) and possibly below. On the upside, above 156.94 will bring retest of 157.88. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 139.87 to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.