Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.23; (P) 156.07; (R1) 156.65; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. Overall, further rise is still expected with 154.86 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 158.19 high will resume larger up trend to 167.93 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.27; (P) 130.23; (R1) 130.75; More....

The break of 129.59 support dampens our bullish view and indicates that rebound from 127.36 has completed at 131.59 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 127.36 first. Break there will extend the corrective pattern from 134.11 to 126.58 fibonacci level. On the upside, though, break of 131.59 will resume the rebound to 133.44/134.11 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8312; (P) 0.8345; (R1) 0.8364; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is back on the downside as recent down trend is resuming. Further fall would be seen to 0.8276 key long term support. On the upside, however, break of 0.8377 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8598 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. We'd look for bottoming signal around there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8598 will now be an early sign of medium term bottoming and bring stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 0.8276 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5724; (P) 1.5799; (R1) 1.5839; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 1.5559 will resume the fall from 1.6168 to retest 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 1.5898 will argue that pull back from 1.6168 has completed. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 1.6168 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0368; (P) 1.0403; (R1) 1.0426; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is back on the downside for 1.0324 low, as corrective rebound from there should have completed at 1.0510. Firm break of 1.0324 will resume larger down trend from 1.1149, and target 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200 next. On the upside, above 1.0443 minor resistance will extend the corrective pattern with another rise leg. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.0936 to 1.0324 at 1.0558.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.

UK CPI accelerated to 5.4% yoy in December, up from 5.1%, above expectation of 5.2% yoy. This is the highest reading since record began in 1997. CPI core rose to 4.2% yoy, up from 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.0% yoy.

Also released, PPI input came in at -0.2% mom, 13.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 13.7% yoy. PPI output was at 0.3% mom, 0.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.6% mom, 9.4% yoy. PPI output core was at 0.5% mom, 8.7% yoy, versus expectation of 0.8% mom, 8.6% yoy.

Full CPI release here.

DXY:

On the H4 timeframe, prices are abiding to a bearish trendline and are on bearish momentum. We expect a dip from our 1st resistance at 95.895 towards our 1st support at 95.6 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred and ichimoku clouds are further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 95.895
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 95.6

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1809.932 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1816.219 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are trading above ichimoku clouds and RSI are at levels where bounces occurred previously, further supporting our bullish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• 4h 1st support at 1809.932
• 4h 1st resistance at 1805.838

GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, price is near 1st resistance level of 1.36036 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the 2nd resistance level of 1.37413 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci projection and graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level.

Areas of consideration

• 1st resistance at 1.36036
• 1st support at 1.35289

USD/CHF

On the H4 timeframe, price is abiding to a descending channel, signifying a bearish momentum. Price is approaching the 1st resistance level of 0.91989, we can expect price to make a short-term bearish drop to the 1st support level of 9.91035 which is in line with our 100% Fibonacci projection and graphical swing low. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is at resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

• Watch 1st Support at 0.91035
• Watch 1st Resistance at 0.91989

EUR/USD :

On the H4 chart , price is abiding by an ascending trendline and is near 1st support level of 1.12924 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance level of 1.13874 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is at support level

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.13874
• H4 1st support at 1.12924

USD/JPY

On the H4 timeframe, is abiding to the ascending channel on the daily, signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can now expect price to push higher from 1st Support in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap support towards 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by the MACD indicator where the MACD line crossed above the signal line and both lines are in the oversold area.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance level 115.508
• H4 1st support level 114.287

AUD/USD:

In reference to last week’s analysis, price indeed dropped to 1st Support @ 0.72023. On the H4, price is reacting within the ascending channel, signifying an overall bullish momentum. Price is approaching the 1st Support, we can expect to see price make a bullish bounce from 1st Support in line with 100% Fibonacci projection, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending channel support towards 1st Resistance in line with previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is approaching the support level.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st Support level 0.71724
• H4 1st resistance level 0.73091

NZD/USD:

On the H4, prices are consolidating in an ascending channel and on bullish momentum. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 0.67563 towards our 1st resistance at 0.68098 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces occurred previously, further supporting our bullish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.68098
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.67563

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will from from our 1st resistance at 1.25632 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to 1st support at 1.24604, which is in line with horizontal overlap support and 100% Fibonacci projection level. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance at 1.26185, which coincides with horizontal overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.24604
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.25479

OIL:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 90.84 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension level from 1st support at 86.7, which is in line with horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 83.86, which coincides with horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 90.84
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 86.7

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price approaching the support of the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 35672 which is in line with horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 1st support at 35252, which is in line with horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 34750, which coincides with horizontal swing low support level and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 35672
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 35252

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7161; (P) 0.7195; (R1) 0.7219; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. We're still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2478; (P) 1.2521; (R1) 1.2556; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further fall is expected as long as 1.2619 support turned resistance holds. Current development argues that whole pattern from 1.2005 has completed with three waves to 1.2963. Below 1.2452 will target 1.2286 support, and possibly further to retest 1.2005 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.2619 will bring stronger rebound back to 1.2812 resistance.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.34; (P) 114.70; (R1) 114.95; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Corrective pattern from 116.34 is expected to extend with at least another falling leg. On the downside, break of 114.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 113.47. Break there will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it's already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we'll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.