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USD/JPY's steeper and deeper than expected decline last week suggests that rise from 112.52 has completed at 116.34 already. But as a temporary low was formed at 113.47, initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 116.34 resistance holds. Below 113.47 will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, break of 112.52 will confirm that it's already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we'll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's rise from 1.3158 extended to as high as 1.3748 last week. As a temporary top was formed there, initial bias is neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.3489 support to bring another rally. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.4282 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3158, after hitting 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level. Above 1.3748 will target 1.3833 first. Sustained break of 1.3833 will pave the way back to retest 1.4248 high.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. The development suggests that up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

USD/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 0.9090, after rising to 0.9276 last week. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.9084 support will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed. Fall from 0.9471 might be ready to resuming. Further decline would be seen back to 0.8925 support first. On the upside, above 0.9276 will target 0.9372 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.6992 resumed last week and hit 0.7313, but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is turned neutral first. We're still slightly favoring the case that correction from 0.8006 is complete after defending 0.6991. Above 0.7313 will extend the rise from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.2452 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2812 resistance holds. Current development argues that whole pattern from 1.2005 has completed with three waves to 1.2963. Below 1.2452 will target 1.2286 support, and possibly further to retest 1.2005 low.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, we're viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

GBP/JPY stayed in consolidation from 157.74 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected with 154.86 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 158.19 high will resume larger up trend to 167.93 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 147.06) holds, we'd still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. But sustained trading below 55 month EMA will at least neutralize medium term bullishness and re-open the chance of revisiting 122.75 low (2016 low).

EUR/JPY dipped to 129.76 last week but quickly recovered, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside break of 129.59 minor support will argue that rebound from 127.36 has completed and turn bias back to the downside for this support. On the upside, break of 131.59 resistance will reaffirm the bullish case that consolidation from 134.11 could have completed with three waves down to 127.36, ahead of 126.58 medium term fibonacci level. Further rally would then be seen to retest 133.44/134.11 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Long term outlook will remain neutral until breakout from the range of 109.03/137.49.

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8322 last week but turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8417 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.8322 will resume recent down trend to 0.8276 key long term support. On the upside, above 0.8417 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8598 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. We'd look for bottoming signal around there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8598 will now be an early sign of medium term bottoming and bring stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 0.8276 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8276 support holds. Break of 0.9499 is in favor at a later stage, to resume the up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low). However, sustained break of 0.8276 will indicate long term trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917, and possibly below.

EUR/AUD stayed in range of 1.5550/5898 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.5559 will resume the fall from 1.6168 to retest 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 1.5898 will argue that pull back form 1.6168 has completed. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 1.6168 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733

EUR/CHF's rebounded from 1.0324 short term bottom extended to 1.0510 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another rise cannot be ruled out yet. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.0936 to 1.0324 at 1.0558. On the downside, firm break of 1.0423 will bring retest of 1.0324 low. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.1149.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.0967) maintains long term bearishness. Down trend from 1.2004 is now in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650.