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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1518; (R1) 1.1570; More….

EUR/USD dips notably after hitting 55 4H EMA, but stays above 1.1408 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1666 resistance holds. Below 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection at 1.0904 next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.1495) confirms rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. In either case, deeper fall is now expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0528. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3298; (P) 1.3332; (R1) 1.3390; More...

GBP/USD retreated sharply after hitting 55 4H EMA, but stays above 1.3216 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could still be seen. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3482 resistance holds. Below 1.3216 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 1.2524 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place from 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or under further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7853; (P) 0.7888; (R1) 0.7913; More….

USD/CHF recovers today but stays below 0.7921 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Further rally is still expected as long as 0.7746 support holds. Rise from 0.7603 is seen as correcting whole down trend from 0.9200. Break of 0.7921 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8091) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

• Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3.3%, breaking the key $5,000 psychological support level ahead of the FOMC
• The market anticipates a "hawkish hold" from the Fed, potentially delaying rate cuts to 2027, which remains a key downside risk
• Technically, the breakdown suggests the "path of least resistance" is down, with structural support at $4,760.46
• Is the selloff offering a discount ahead of the FOMC?

The price of gold is down around 2.3% on the day as the precious metal slides ahead of the key FOMC meeting later in the day.

The precious metal has been grinding all week around the $5000/oz mark and has finally made its move. This leaves market participants with an interesting conundrum, is it another buy the dip opportunity or is gold at risk of freefall?

FOMC meeting

The reason for this question is simple, markets are pretty much resigned to the fact that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold today. The bigger question is around the updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and how that may change.

As things stand market participants are leaning toward a hawkish tilt on that front with rate cuts likely being pushed back to 2027.

If such a move takes place, could Gold be sent on a downward spiral? Circling back to today's move and the US Dollar has been relatively steady which should actually be a concern.

Gold prices are falling and the US dollar has not even started to recover this week's losses. If the DXY rallies after today's FOMC meeting that could be a catalyst for further downside in Gold prices.

Haven demand & discount opportunity

Since the February 28 war in Iran began, safe haven demand has been overshadowed by the surge in the US Dollar and diminishing rate cut bets.

One would have to think that only a major change in the current conflict and potentially some other developments around the global economy will be needed in order for Gold to receive the haven flows once more (a change in the status quo) if you will.

There is another school of thought heading into today's FOMC meeting. It could be that market participants already expecting a hawkish Fed tilt may be frontrunning with today's selloff.

Selling the rumor of a hawkish Fed tilt and pricing it in ahead of the actual updates later today and when the meeting takes place we could see buyers return to the fold and buy Gold at what could be considered a discount level ahead of the next potential rally.

Is this what we are seeing today? I guess we have to wait and see.

Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, the H4 chart illustrates a clear shift from a bullish "blow-off" top seen earlier in the month to a consolidative, slightly bearish trend.

Moving Averages & Trend

SMA (50, blue): Currently at $5,095.84. The price has slipped below this short-term trend indicator, which is now acting as immediate dynamic resistance.

SMA (100, green): Located at $5,144.74. The widening gap between the 50 and 100 SMAs suggests that the recent bearish momentum is accelerating.

Price Structure: The red box highlights a multi-day consolidation zone. The recent breakdown below this box (around $5,020) suggests that the "path of least resistance" has shifted to the downside in the short term.

Support and Resistance Levels

• Critical Resistance: $5,128.50 and $5,096.72. These levels align with the recent consolidation floor and the 50-period SMA. A break above these would be required to neutralize the bearish bias.
• Psychological Support: $5,000.00. This is the "line in the sand." As seen on the far right of the chart, the price is aggressively testing this level.
• Structural Support: $4,760.46. This represents a major historical floor. If $5,000 fails to hold on a daily closing basis, this is the primary downside target.

Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently reading 27.32.
• This indicates that Gold is in oversold territory on the H4 timeframe.
• While this often precedes a temporary bounce (mean reversion), in a strong downtrend, an oversold RSI can "stay low" for extended periods as price grinds down.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 18, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.65; (P) 159.07; (R1) 159.43; More...

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after touching 158.55 support and focus is back on 159.84 temporary top. Above there will resume the rally from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 158.55 should indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.74 at 156.87.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.70) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Markets traded in a subdued tone through most of the day, with investors largely sidelined ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. That calm was abruptly shattered as the US session began, with a sharp deterioration in risk sentiment accompanied by a broad rebound in Dollar and a selloff in equity futures.

The sudden shift was driven by a double shock. Oil prices surged after reports of Israeli and US air strikes targeting Iran’s South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh energy complex in Bushehr Province, while US PPI data came in significantly stronger than expected, reinforcing inflation concerns just hours before the Fed decision.

The energy red line has been crossed

The strike on South Pars marks a critical escalation in the conflict. Until now, markets had largely assumed that core energy infrastructure—particularly assets of systemic global importance—would remain off-limits to avoid triggering a global economic shock. That assumption has now been broken.

By targeting Asaluyeh, the conflict has moved beyond proxy confrontations to direct hits on economic arteries. The development raises the risk that other key energy assets in the region, including those in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could come into scope, increasing the probability of broader supply disruptions.

The implications extend beyond global markets. South Pars accounts for roughly 70% of Iran’s domestic gas supply, and disrupting it during a period of conflict is likely to intensify internal pressure on the Iranian regime. Historically, such pressure has often led to more aggressive external responses, including threats to oil flows through the Gulf.

Inflation already accelerating before the first missile was fired

At the same time, inflation risks were already building even before the geopolitical shock. US PPI rose 0.7% mom in February, more than double expectations, while the annual rate accelerated to 3.4% yoy, the fastest pace in a year. The data signals that upstream price pressures were strengthening prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Importantly, the composition of the PPI report points to structural inflation. Gains were broad-based, with services leading but goods prices also rising sharply. Increases in tariffs, metals, and industrial inputs highlight that cost pressures are embedded across the production chain rather than driven by temporary factors.

This creates a more challenging backdrop for policymakers. If inflation was already accelerating before the war, the subsequent surge in energy prices—yet to be reflected in official data—suggests that the forward inflation path could be significantly higher. The Fed is therefore faced with inflation pressures that are both structural and geopolitical.

Market reaction reflects this repricing. Dollar has emerged as the strongest performer on the day. Commodity currencies show mixed performance, with Loonie supported by oil, but Aussie and Kiwi under pressure amid broader risk aversion.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.60%. DAX is down -0.52%. CAC is up 0.01%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.067 at 4.692. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 2.928. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.87%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.61%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.32%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.045 to 2.218.

“Hawkish hold” may disappoint as Fed avoids committing either way

A “hawkish hold” is priced in—but the Fed may deliver something more neutral. If so, markets could be caught off guard, opening the door to a sharp repricing in Dollar and global assets. Read more.

US PPI jumps 0.7% mom, services and goods both rise

US PPI beat expectations at 0.7% mom, with broad-based gains in services and goods pushing annual inflation to 3.4% yoy. Persistent core strength signals inflation risks are far from easing. Read more.

Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.9% in February as price pressures broaden

Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.9% yoy in February, while core rose to 2.4% yoy, led by strong services inflation. Persistent underlying pressures are likely to keep ECB cautious despite near-target headline CPI. Read more.

Swiss growth outlook cut as energy shock and strong Franc weigh on economy

Switzerland’s 2026 growth forecast was cut to 1.0% as rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on demand. Inflation is now seen slightly higher, while a strong franc and weak global outlook continue to drag on exports. Read more.

Japan trade data highlights diversification, shift away from China and U.S.

Japan’s exports rose 4.2% yoy in February, beating forecasts despite sharp declines in shipments to China and the U.S. Strong demand from Southeast Asia and Europe helped offset weakness, signaling a shift in trade dynamics. Read more.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.65; (P) 159.07; (R1) 159.43; More...

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after touching 158.55 support and focus is back on 159.84 temporary top. Above there will resume the rally from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 158.55 should indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 159.74 at 156.87.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.70) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

US producer prices surprised to the upside in February, with PPI rising 0.7% mom, more than double expectations of 0.3% mom. The annual rate accelerated to 3.4% yoy from 2.9% yoy, marking the strongest pace since February 2025 and reinforcing signs that upstream inflation pressures are re-emerging.

The strength was broad-based but led by services, which accounted for more than half of the monthly increase with a 0.5% rise. Goods prices also showed notable momentum, climbing 1.1% mom, suggesting that both supply-side and demand-driven factors are contributing to the pickup in producer inflation. The breadth of the increase points to a more persistent inflation impulse rather than a one-off rebound.

Underlying measures also remained firm. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% mom, extending a streak of ten consecutive monthly increases. The annual rate held elevated at 3.5% yoy.

Full US PPI release here.

Key takeaways

• BoJ policy pause amid stagflation risks: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, balancing rising inflation with slowing growth as higher oil prices from the US–Iran war in 2026 weigh on Japan’s economy and consumer confidence.
• Mixed macro signals but tightening bias intact: While weak equity performance (e.g., Nikkei 225 down ~9%) signals soft sentiment, improving wages and sticky inflation support expectations for at least one 25 bps rate hike in 2026.
• Yen under pressure near intervention zone: The USD/JPY is hovering around the 159.45–161.95 intervention risk zone, keeping markets cautious. A break below 157.50 could trigger near-term USD weakness, while continued yen depreciation raises the risk of official intervention.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0. 75% when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 19 March 2026, as the current elevated oil prices due to a prolonged US-Iran conflict stoke stagflation risk.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is signaling a lackluster consumer confidence

Fig. 1: Nikkei 225 & major global benchmark stock indices from 27 Feb 2026 to 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

Japan is a major net oil importer, where it gets more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, hence, soaring oil prices are set to push up daily living costs in Japan, in turn, dampen consumer and business confidence, and eventually slow down economic growth.

This negative feedback loop is at play, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the second-worst-performing global benchmark stock index, that shed -9% since the start of the US-Iran war as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in January 2026

Fig. 2: Key economic data that BoJ monitors as of Jan-Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

In a parliamentary speech on Tuesday, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. In addition, Ueda mentioned that wages and prices are rising moderately together, as companies become more willing to pass on higher input and labour costs.

Before the US-Iran war, Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in 13 months in January to hit a growth rate of 1.40% y/y (see Fig 2). Also, Japan’s large corporations are expected to offer wage increases of 5% or more for the third consecutive year after the conclusion of this year’s annual spring wage talks on Wednesday.

BoJ is still expecting to hike by 25 bps in 2026

Fig. 3: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

The interest rate swap market in Japan is still implying BoJ is looking to hike its policy rate by at least 25 basis points in 2026. The 1-year overnight indexed swap rate has held steady at 1% and increased slightly to 1.03% as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026, and is also above the 1-month overnight indexed swap rate quoted at 0.74% (see Fig. 3).

BoJ Governor’s press conference will be in focus as USD/JPY hovers at 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zone

Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 18 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference after the monetary policy decision will be at 3.30 p.m. (Tokyo time) on Thursday, 19 March 2026.

Ueda will elaborate on the BoJ’s reasoning behind the current policy decision, and in the past press conferences, Ueda tends to paint a balancing act and tilt towards a dovish stance, in turn, often weakening the Japanese yen thereafter.

However, this time round it might be different as the yen has weakened significantly since the onset of the US-Iran war, where it hit almost a 20-month low against the US dollar at 159.75 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, slightly above the previous intervention level of 159.45, where Japanese authorities sold the US dollar and brought back the yen on 12 July 2024.

The USD/JPY is now trading at 159.00 at this time of writing. Hence, short-term speculators are likely to be cautious about taking aggressive yen short positions as the USD/JPY continues to fluctuate around the key intervention risk zone of 159.45/161.95 (see Fig. 4).

Short-term US dollar bears may get traction if USD/JPY breaks below the key near-term support of 157.50 (also the 20-day moving average) to trigger a potential minor decline towards the next support at 154.65 (23 February 2026 swing low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from the 12 February 2026 low to 13 March 2026 high) (see Fig. 4).

EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave from the 1.1400 zone. USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7900 before it started a downside correction.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro declined toward 1.1400 before it started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7850 and 0.7900 before it faced hurdles.
• There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7870 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair extended the decline below 1.1500. The Euro even declined below 1.1440 before the bulls appeared against the US Dollar.

The pair tested 1.1410 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above 1.1450 and 1.1480. The pair climbed above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1667 swing high to the 1.1410 low.

More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500. The pair is now trading above 1.1520 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.1570.

The first key breakout zone sits at 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 might send the pair toward 1.1665. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1700 zone. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.1505.

The next major support is 1.1470. A downside break below 1.1470 could send the pair toward 1.1410. Any more losses might send the pair to 1.1360.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.7750. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.7800 handle against the Swiss Franc.

The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7850. Finally, the pair tested 0.7920. A high was formed near 0.7923 and the pair is now correcting some gains. The pair dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7748 swing low to the 0.7923 high.

Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line at 0.7870. On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7835. The first key area of interest might be 0.7790.

A downside break below 0.7790 might call for a drop to 0.7750. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7720.

On the upside, the pair could struggle near 0.7875. The first major barrier for bulls is 0.7890. If there is a clear break above 0.7890 and the RSI climbs above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.7925.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Today, the focus for FX traders is on the Federal Reserve: at 21:00 GMT+3, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision (rates are expected to remain unchanged), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later.

In addition:

• → the Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision today;
• → similar events are scheduled tomorrow for the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England.

As the DXY chart shows, the index is currently trading near the median of an upward channel that has remained in place since early February — a zone where supply and demand typically balance each other. However, incoming central bank announcements are likely to disrupt this equilibrium.

Technical Analysis of DXY

On the morning of 13 March, when analysing the DXY chart, we:

• → noted that the market appeared overbought, with price trading above the upper boundary of the channel;
• → suggested that a pullback could develop.

Indeed, subsequent price action showed signs of bearish pressure:

• → the formation of a “head and shoulders” (H&S) reversal pattern;
• → a bull trap above the psychological 100-point level.

It is reasonable to assume that the FX market is currently awaiting a crucial wave of fundamental information from central banks, which is particularly significant given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility in the near term — the dollar index may move towards one of the channel boundaries depending on how the market reacts to upcoming news.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.