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The market spent the last week behaving as though a US-Iran deal was only a matter of time. That assumption just took a major hit. Instead of accepting Washington’s 14-point peace framework, Tehran pushed back with its own proposal: lift sanctions, ease the blockade around Hormuz, and negotiate nuclear restrictions over the next 12 to 15 years. Trump’s answer came quickly and bluntly on Truth Social: “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”

That rejection undermines the entire market thesis that geopolitical tensions were gradually moving toward controlled de-escalation. Investors had increasingly convinced themselves that even if fighting continued, the conflict would stay economically contained. That belief helped fuel relentless buying in AI stocks, record highs in NASDAQ, and persistent Dollar weakness despite ongoing military clashes around the Gulf.

Oil never fully bought into that optimism. Brent held stubbornly elevated even while equities celebrated the “peace trade.” Today’s sharp rebound toward $105 suggests energy markets are still pricing in a different reality — not peace, not full war, but a drawn-out confrontation where shipping risks, military threats, sanctions pressure, and nuclear brinkmanship become semi-permanent features of the global economy.

The emerging reality looks messy. Iran appears to be trying to institutionalize leverage through Hormuz while buying time on nuclear concessions. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly says the war is “not over,” insisting enriched uranium still has to be physically removed from Iran. Trump himself continues threatening much harder military action if Tehran refuses to comply. That creates a far more dangerous macro backdrop because prolonged instability can be worse for inflation than a short shock.

The technical picture in Brent crude is also becoming increasingly unsettling. Since topping at 119.50 in March, prices have compressed into what appears to be a symmetrical triangle — one of the market’s classic “stored energy” patterns. Every ceasefire rumor has pulled prices lower. Every diplomatic failure has pulled them back higher. But the overall range keeps tightening.

Technically, that type of compression rarely lasts forever. The tighter the triangle becomes, the more violent the eventual breakout tends to be. Brent now appears to be starting another rising leg toward 115.30 resistance zone, and if the upper boundary eventually gives way, the measured move projects toward the 135–140 area. That is the real risk oil markets may now be warning about.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD stayed above 1.1675 and might attempt another increase.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1750 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD seems to be consolidating gains above 1.3520.
• Bitcoin remains supported and might aim for a move above $82,000.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro found support near 1.1675 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1700 and 1.1720 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 1.1750 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). However, the bears are still active near the 1.1800 zone.

A high was formed at 1.1796, and the pair is now consolidating gains above 1.1750. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1750 on the same chart.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.1780. The first major resistance sits at 1.1800. The main resistance could be 1.1840. A close above 1.1840 could open doors for gains above 1.1880. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1950.

Immediate support is seen at 1.1750. The next support could be 1.1720. A close below 1.1720 might push the pair toward 1.1675. Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 1.1550 in the coming days.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair is showing positive signs, and the bulls could aim for a move above the 1.3650 resistance.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Existing Home Sales for April 2026 (MoM) - Forecast -1.1%, versus -3.6% previous.

China’s inflation data surprised to the upside in April, with both consumer and producer prices accelerating more than expected. CPI rose from 1.0% yoy to 1.2% yoy, beating forecasts of 0.9% yoy, while PPI surged from 0.5% yoy to 2.8% yoy, far above expectations of 1.7% yoy. The producer price reading marked a 45-month high and extended the sharp turnaround seen in March, when factory-gate prices finally ended a 41-month deflation streak with a 0.5% increase.

A major driver behind the CPI acceleration was transportation and communication costs, which jumped 4.6% amid higher fuel prices linked to ongoing energy market tensions. However, the data also pointed to broader inflation pressures emerging within the economy. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, rose around 1.1%, suggesting price gains are not confined to commodities alone.

The stronger-than-expected inflation readings may reinforce expectations that China’s prolonged disinflation cycle has now decisively turned. Rising factory-gate prices could eventually feed further into consumer inflation in coming months, especially if energy costs stay elevated and domestic demand continues stabilizing.

USD/JPY remained volatile last week as another suspected round of Bank of Japan intervention triggered sharp intraday swings during Japan’s Golden Week holiday period, when thinner liquidity amplified market moves. The pair briefly tested the 155 area before recovering to close the week little changed overall. Reports suggest Japanese authorities may have spent close to ¥10 trillion, or roughly $64–65 billion, supporting the yen since April 30, reinforcing the message that officials are determined to resist excessive currency weakness.

At the same time, resilient U.S. economic data continued to support the dollar. April nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, well above expectations of 62,000, marking a second consecutive upside surprise in labor market data. The stronger employment backdrop complicates the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts, particularly as inflation risks tied to elevated energy prices continue to linger.

Despite these macro headwinds, global equities extended their rally. Strong corporate earnings and persistent enthusiasm around AI-related technology shares kept investor sentiment firmly risk-positive. The Nasdaq advanced for a sixth consecutive week, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged to fresh record highs, driven by semiconductor and technology stocks.

Bitcoin also continued to trend higher as broader “risk-on” sentiment encouraged flows into higher-beta assets. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil retreated back below the $100 handle as markets continued to price in hopes of a potential U.S.–Iran agreement. Traders remain focused on Tehran’s response to Washington’s latest 14-point memorandum proposal, with expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough helping to reduce part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets.

However, beneath the surface, cracks in sentiment remain visible. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 48.2 in early May, its lowest reading on record, highlighting growing concerns among consumers over inflation and purchasing power pressures.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

U.S. equities remained firm last week, with the Nasdaq once again reaching fresh record highs. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to struggle below its February highs, reflecting a more selective rally beneath the surface.

Strong earnings results and lower oil prices supported risk appetite as traders continued to anticipate a relatively quick resolution to the Middle East conflict. For now, buying on weakness remains the preferred strategy while momentum stays constructive.

Resistance levels are located at 50,000, 50,500, and 51,000. Support is seen at 49,000, 48,500, 48,000, 47,000, and 46,000.

Japanese Stocks

Following the Golden Week holiday, the Nikkei 225 surged to fresh all-time highs, supported by ongoing optimism around AI and semiconductor-related shares. Notably, the stronger yen following suspected intervention had little impact on Japanese equities, highlighting the strength of underlying bullish momentum.

The breakout to new highs remains technically positive, suggesting traders may prefer to avoid fighting the uptrend. Waiting for pullbacks toward the 10-day moving average could provide more attractive entry opportunities this week.

Resistance is seen at 64,000, 65,000, 66,000, 67,000, and 68,000, while support is located at 62,000, 61,000, 60,000, 58,500, and 57,000.

USD/JPY

Another apparent round of yen-buying intervention from the Bank of Japan triggered several sharp declines in USD/JPY during the holiday period, when thinner market liquidity increased the effectiveness of official action.

However, despite repeated warnings from Japanese officials and persistent intervention risk, USD/JPY still finished the week broadly unchanged. This suggests underlying demand for dollars remains firm while U.S. yields stay elevated.

The upside may remain capped while intervention fears persist, but buying interest continues to emerge on dips. In the current environment, range trading and taking advantage of short-term volatility may remain the more effective strategy.

Resistance levels are at 157.00, 158.00, 159.00, 160.00, and 160.50, while support is seen at 156.00, 155.00, 154.00, and 152.50.

Gold

Gold found support last week as WTI oil prices eased lower and long-term U.S. yields softened modestly. The move helped bullion break above its recent downtrend and encouraged some longer-term buyers to re-enter the market.

However, with the 10-day moving average still tracking sideways, the broader structure continues to favor range trading rather than a sustained breakout.

Resistance levels are located at $4,750, $4,900, $5,000, and $5,100, while support sits at $4,550, $4,500, and $4,400.

Crude Oil

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remained the dominant driver for WTI crude oil last week, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in the coming weeks.

Those expectations helped push WTI back below the $100 level as traders reduced part of the geopolitical premium built into prices during the conflict escalation.

However, negotiations are still expected to take time, and headline-driven volatility is likely to remain elevated. In this environment, fading extreme short-term moves may continue to be the preferred strategy for active traders.

Resistance is located at $100, $110, and $120, while support sits at $90, $80, $75, $70, and $67.50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continued to grind higher last week as improving market sentiment and renewed appetite for risk assets supported demand. Optimism surrounding a possible easing in geopolitical tensions also helped sentiment across crypto markets.

However, ETF-related selling flows continued to limit upside momentum at times during the week.

The broader outlook remains constructive while Bitcoin holds above the key $75,000 support zone, suggesting buying opportunities may still be favored on pullbacks.

Resistance levels are at $82,500, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is located at $75,000, $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Monday: China CPI and PPI, U.S. Existing Home Sales
• Tuesday: Japan Household Spending, German CPI, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. CPI
• Wednesday: Japan Current Account, E.U. GDP and Industrial Production, U.S. PPI
• Thursday: U.K. GDP, Industrial Production and Trade Balance, U.S. Retail Sales
• Friday: U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production

USD/JPY will remain a major focus this week as traders continue to test whether Japanese authorities are prepared to defend the yen aggressively around the 157 area, or whether intervention activity begins to fade.

At the same time, ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations will continue to shape broader market sentiment, particularly through their impact on oil prices and inflation expectations. Equity markets will attempt to extend recent gains, while upcoming U.S. inflation and retail sales data could prove critical in determining whether higher energy prices are beginning to materially impact inflation trends and consumer demand.

CHFJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• CHFJPY reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 204.00

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the support level 198.65 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of February), 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from November and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Hammer, which stopped the previous minor correction 2.

Given the strong daily uptrend, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 204.00 (which stopped impulses (1) and 1).

Markets spent last week aggressively chasing the AI-driven equity rally while largely ignoring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite renewed uncertainty over a promised peace deal, stocks surged to new records while Dollar weakened broadly on strong risk appetite. S&P 500 followed NASDAQ to fresh records, while Asia’s major technology-heavy benchmarks exploded higher as well. Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s KOSPI, and Taiwan’s TAIEX all surged to new highs as investors doubled down on semiconductor and AI infrastructure themes.

At the same time, the rally underneath the surface was far less broad than headline indices suggested. Traditional industrial and cyclical sectors lagged badly. DOW struggled to break above the 50,000 level, FTSE drifted sideways, and Germany’s DAX actually weakened under the weight of fresh US tariff threats targeting European autos. Investors were not buying “the economy.” They were buying AI.

That distinction is important because it explains the market’s remarkable “geopolitical indifference” throughout the week. Traders appeared willing to ignore Middle East risks unless they directly threatened the AI growth story or caused a full-scale oil shock capable of destabilizing global markets.

Indeed, investors spent much of Thursday and Friday positioning for a potential “peace dividend” after reports suggested Washington and Tehran were discussing a 30-day framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell sharply as traders priced the possibility that commercial shipping could normalize and that Iran might back away from its increasingly aggressive chokepoint strategy.

But reality quickly complicated the optimism. Iranian officials publicly rejected Washington’s timelines for accepting the proposal, while US Central Command confirmed American forces had conducted “self-defense strikes” against Iranian-linked ports after destroyers came under attack in Hormuz.

That disconnect may be the single most important signal from last week. Markets are not reacting to geopolitical instability the way they would earlier in the year. Investors increasingly appear convinced that AI-driven earnings growth and liquidity momentum can absorb almost any macro shock short of outright regional war.

Dollar’s performance captured that shift perfectly. Normally, a week featuring military clashes in Hormuz and a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report would have fueled broad Dollar strength. Instead, the greenback weakened sharply as traders continued rotating into risk-sensitive currencies and equities.

The jobs report itself actually strengthened the bullish macro narrative. April payrolls came in far stronger than expected, confirming that March’s strength was not simply a one-off surprise. At the same time, wage growth remained relatively tame, reinforcing the “Goldilocks” idea that the economy is resilient enough to avoid recession while inflation pressures remain manageable enough for the Federal Reserve to comfortably stay on hold.

That combination effectively removed two major market fears simultaneously: recession panic and hawkish Fed panic. Once those risks faded, investors simply returned to chasing the strongest momentum theme available — AI.

Currency markets reflected that same dynamic. Kiwi and Aussie led gains as Asia’s tech and semiconductor optimism intensified, while Dollar and Yen underperformed amid the broader risk-on environment. Canadian Dollar was hit especially hard as collapsing oil prices and weak domestic labor data undermined the case for Bank of Canada tightening.

The real question now is whether markets have become too comfortable dismissing geopolitical danger altogether. Heading into the weekend, investors are effectively betting that some form of US-Iran agreement will eventually emerge and prevent a full-blown Hormuz catastrophe. For now, traders appear willing to look past the risks and keep chasing the AI-driven rally, leaving Dollar under pressure — at least until those assumptions are proven wrong.

Weekly Currency Performance (May 4 – May 8, 2026)

NASDAQ Nears Key Projection as AI Rally Accelerates

NASDAQ’s powerful uptrend extended again last week, bringing the index within striking distance of 61.8% projection of 14,784 to 24,019 from 20,690 at 26,398. The AI-driven rally continues to dominate global equity markets, with momentum remaining firmly bullish for now.

However, technical conditions are becoming stretched. Daily RSI remains in overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum could begin fading after the 26,398 level and especially as NASDAQ approaches the medium-term rising channel ceiling, currently near 27,142. A break below 25495 support would be the first indication of a short-term top and likely trigger a period of consolidation.

Still, there is no confirmed reversal signal yet. If NASDAQ decisively breaks above the channel resistance, the rally could enter another acceleration phase, opening the way toward 100% projection at 29,926.

Nikkei Rally Faces Channel Resistance After Record Run

Japan’s Nikkei also extended its strong uptrend last week and is now pressing against medium-term channel resistance. The rally has been fueled by the global AI boom, semiconductor demand, and renewed foreign inflows into Japanese equities.

Short-term conditions are becoming overbought, as reflected in D RSI readings, suggesting the index could struggle to sustain the same pace of gains near current levels. Some pullback or consolidation would not be surprising as the market tests the upper boundary of the channel.

Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 58,928 support holds. Firm breakout above channel resistance would signal renewed upside acceleration and could quickly drive Nikkei toward 61.8% projection of 53,590 to 59,332 from 50,558 at 68,196.

Dollar Index Remains Under Pressure Despite Stabilization

Dollar Index gyrated lower last week but managed to stay above the 97.63 support. The broader technical outlook remains unchanged, with the rebound from 95.55 likely completed at 100.64, just below 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 95.55 at 101.13.

Further downside remains favored while 99.34 resistance caps recovery attempts. Decisive break below 97.63 would pave the way for another test of 95.55 low.

For now, there is still uncertainty over whether the corrective structure from 95.55 could evolve into a more complex consolidation with another rebound leg. However, a firm break below 95.55 would confirm resumption of the broader downtrend from both the 101.17 (2025 high) and the 114.77 (2022 peak).

AUD/CAD Targets Parity on RBA-BoC Policy Divergence

Aussie surged strongly last week after RBA delivered another hawkish rate hike to 4.35% and signaled in updated projections that the cash rate could eventually rise toward 4.7%. The guidance reinforced expectations that Australia’s tightening cycle is not yet complete.

In contrast, weak Canadian employment data sharply reduced expectations for any near-term Bank of Canada tightening despite Governor Tiff Macklem’s warnings about inflation risks. Combined with falling oil prices, the softer Canadian outlook added further support to AUD/CAD’s bullish trend.

Technically, AUD/CAD is on track to retest the key 0.9991 resistance (2021 high) with parity coming into view. While some resistance could emerge on the first attempt, a decisive break above parity would likely trigger another wave of upside acceleration toward 100% projection of 0.9055 to 0.9749 from 0.9510 at 1.0204. In any case, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9721 support holds.

More importantly, sustained break above 0.9991 would confirm resumption of the broader uptrend from the 0.8058 (2020 low). In that scenario, the next medium-term target would come in at 100% projection of 0.8058 to 0.9991 from 0.8440 at 1.0373.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF's decline from 0.8041 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758 will target 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7808 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8051) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

EUR/USD stayed in range below 1.1848 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral, and further rise is expected with 1.1642 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1530). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY dipped to 155.01 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 155.01 will resume the fall from 160.71 to 152.25 support next. On the upside, however, firm break of 157.92 will indicate that pullback from 160.71 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.02) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

GBP/USD stayed in range trading below 1.3657 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral for consolidations, and further rise is expected with 1.3453 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3657 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.0351 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.