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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1705; (P) 1.1743; (R1) 1.1762; More….

EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.1642 support intact, rise from 1.1408 is expected to continue. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1537). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7778; (P) 0.7793; (R1) 0.7822; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the downside at this point. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758 will extend the fall from 0.8041 to 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7847 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8042) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.32; (P) 156.64; (R1) 157.26; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.92 resistance holds. Below 155.01 will resume the fall from 160.71 to 61.8% projection of 160.71 to 155.48 from 157.92 at 154.68. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 152.69. That would be close to key 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). However, firm break of 157.92 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.01) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3522; (P) 1.3577; (R1) 1.3607; More...

GBP/USD rebounded after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 1.3657 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Further rise is expected with 1.3453 support intact. On the upside, above 1.3657 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3453 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3158 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

The US jobs report gave stock markets exactly what they wanted — proof the economy is still holding up without reigniting fears of runaway inflation. Stocks liked it, the Fed will likely like it, and recession fears eased further. Yet despite the upbeat reaction, traders still seem unwilling to fully commit because the biggest market risk remains geopolitical, not economic.

Dollar slipped broadly in early US trading after the payrolls release, though the move lacked strong follow-through against most major currencies. That hesitation says a lot about the current market environment. Even after a stronger-than-expected jobs report, investors are still treating developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict as the dominant macro driver.

The April payrolls report itself was clearly solid. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 115k, almost double market expectations, while March’s already strong reading was revised higher to 185k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, suggesting the labor market continues showing resilience despite geopolitical uncertainty and slowing global growth concerns.

At the same time, the inflation side of the report stayed relatively calm. Average hourly earnings increased just 0.2% mom, below expectations, even though annual wage growth ticked up modestly to 3.6% yoy. For markets, that combination created the ideal “Goldilocks” outcome: strong enough to reassure investors the economy is not sliding toward recession, but soft enough to avoid reviving fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

That dynamic helped reinforce the powerful risk-on environment that has driven S&P 500 and NASDAQ toward repeated record highs in recent sessions. Investors could believe the Fed can comfortably stay on hold for the rest of the year without needing to either rescue the economy or aggressively tighten policy further. Market pricing now shows more than 70% probability that rates remain unchanged through year-end.

Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar became the major underperformer after Canada’s labor market delivered a sharp negative surprise. Employment fell by -17.7k in April instead of posting expected gains, while unemployment rose to 6.9%. The report reinforced concerns that Canada’s economy is losing momentum more quickly than the US.

While BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that persistent inflation could eventually require multiple rate hikes, deteriorating employment conditions make it increasingly difficult for the central bank to realistically follow through on that threat.

Still, even the strong US payrolls report failed to fully dominate market attention. Markets are now turning back toward geopolitics as the dominant macro driver. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington expects a response from Tehran later Friday regarding the proposed agreement aimed at ending the conflict. “We’ll see what the response entails. The hope is it’s something that can put us into a serious process in negotiation,” Rubio said.

For now, the broader market tone remains cautiously constructive. Kiwi leads currency gains for the week, followed by Aussie and Swiss Franc, while Loonie, Dollar, and Yen underperform. But despite the encouraging payrolls report, investors appear unwilling to fully extend risk positioning until there is greater clarity on whether the fragile path toward a US-Iran agreement can hold.

US Payrolls Beat Expectations With 115k Growth, But Wage Growth Stays Calm

US payrolls surprised to the upside in April, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains resilient despite slowing growth concerns. At the same time, softer monthly wage growth helped keep the broader “Goldilocks” soft-landing narrative intact. Read More.

Canada Employment Falls -17.7k as Unemployment Rises to 6.9%

Canada’s labor market weakened in April. Employment unexpectedly fell, full-time jobs dropped heavily, and unemployment climbed to 6.9%, adding to concerns about slowing economic momentum. Read More.

Japan Real Wage Growth Extends Gains Despite Slower Nominal Pay Growth

Japan’s real wages rose for a third consecutive month in March, supported by easing inflation and the strongest stretch of base pay growth in more than three decades. Read More.

Japan PMI Services Finalized at 51.0 as Middle East War Fuels Cost Pressures

Japan’s services sector lost momentum in April just as inflation pressures intensified sharply. Rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict pushed input prices to a three-and-a-half-year high and selling prices to their steepest increase in nearly two decades. Read More.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3522; (P) 1.3577; (R1) 1.3607; More...

GBP/USD rebounded after drawing support from 55 4H EMA, but stays below 1.3657 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Further rise is expected with 1.3453 support intact. On the upside, above 1.3657 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3453 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3158 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Canada’s labor market weakened notably in April as employment unexpectedly declined and the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in months. Total employment fell by -17.7k during the month, sharply missing expectations for a modest gain of 5.1k. The weakness was concentrated in full-time positions, which dropped by -47k, while part-time employment rose by 29k.

Unemployment rate increased from 6.7% to 6.9%, above market expectations, while employment rate slipped to 60.5%. At the same time, participation rate edged higher to 65.0%, suggesting more people entered the labor force despite deteriorating hiring conditions.

Wage growth remained relatively elevated but showed signs of gradual moderation. Average hourly wages rose 4.5% yoy in April, slowing slightly from March’s 4.7% increase.

Full Canada employment release here.

US job growth slowed in April but remained significantly stronger than expectes. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 115k during the month, comfortably above consensus forecasts near 60k, while March payrolls were revised higher from 178k to 185k.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as expected, although the labor force participation rate edged lower from 61.9% to 61.8%. The labor market continues to show resilience despite elevated interest rates and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Wage growth was relatively contained. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom for a second consecutive month, undershooting expectations for a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, wage growth ticked up from 3.4% yoy to 3.6% yoy.

Full US NFP release here.

Key takeaways

• Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure despite short-term volatility driven by US–Iran geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, with price action stabilising above key support at 28,280.
• Market sentiment was briefly pressured by conflict-related headlines, but losses were largely recovered as ceasefire stability expectations improved and risk appetite returned.
• Market breadth is healthy but not euphoric, with broad participation across components and technical indicators supporting near-term upside continuation.

The US stock market saw profit-taking on Thursday, 7 May 2026, as traders grew increasingly concerned over the fragility of the month-long US-Iran ceasefire after both sides exchanged fire.

Market sentiment was further unsettled by uncertainty surrounding Washington’s latest proposal to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has yet to respond to.

The leading Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.3% intraday from its all-time intraday high of 28,825, but trimmed its losses to end Thursday’s US session with a marginal loss of only 0.1% and underperformed against other US stock indices; S&P 500 (-0.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.6%).

In today's (Friday, 8 May 2026), the Nasdaq 100 E-min futures recovered by 0.5% at this time of writing and almost recovered Thursday’s US session losses, reinforced by US President Trump's remarks that stated the ceasefire agreement “remains intact”.

Aside from this piece of “Trump’s positive news flow”, several technical elements are also advocating for another potential round of fresh short-term bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Nasdaq 100.

Let’s decipher them.

Nasdaq 100’s Market Breadth Remains Healthy, Not Euphoric

Fig. 1: Nasdaq 100 component stocks above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Even though in the past four weeks, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 has been primarily driven by several AI-related semiconductors and chip stocks such as Intel (+111%), SanDisk (+87%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+87%), the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages is steady at 61% and 59%, not yet at euphoric levels of 80%-90%.

In addition, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above the key 200-day moving averages has increased steadily from 47% on 15 April 2026 to 57% as of Thursday, 7 May 2026 (below euphoric levels of 80%-90%), which indicates that a broader set of Nasdaq 100 is taking part in this ongoing rally since the end of March 2026 (see Fig. 1).

Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures).

Nasdaq 100 – Looking to Break Above 28,890 with Bullish Momentum

Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView).

Trend bias: Bullish above 28,280 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).

Resistances: 28,860/890, 29,150, and 29,505/615

Next supports: 27,850, 27,540, and 27,255

Key Elements to Support the Near-Term Bullish Bias on the Nasdaq 100

• Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low.
• Current price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD index are trading at the upper half of the ascending channel, with the upper boundary of the channel coming in at around 29,505.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by around 2% over the past 24 hours to $2.62 trillion, amid a renewed flight to safety in global markets. The leaders were Internet Computer (+9%), Zcash (+3.6%) and Tron (+1.4%); the laggards were Doge (-4.7%), Toncoin (-3.7%) and Dash (-3.5%). Since hitting lows at the end of March, the cryptocurrency market has been rising at roughly the same pace as the S&P 500, but at about half the speed of its more familiar bellwether – the Nasdaq 100. Since the start of the year, the Nasdaq 100 has gained 13%, while the crypto market has declined 12%.

Bitcoin has returned to levels below $80K, extending its retreat from the 200-day moving average and after touching the overbought zone as part of a pullback from the upper boundary of the uptrend channel. The lower boundary of this channel lies near $77.5K, but a break in this trend would require a fall below the recent lows near $75K.

News Background

Crypto whales on Hyperliquid have significantly increased their long positions in Bitcoin over the past two months, signalling strong bullish sentiment among large BTC holders, according to Glassnode.

Galaxy Digital notes a reduction in selling pressure on Bitcoin, while the number of potential buyers continues to grow. To reach $100K, the asset needs to consolidate above $84K.

Bitcoin Core developers have fixed a critical memory safety vulnerability. A significant proportion of nodes are still running the vulnerable software.

According to a study by Project Eleven, quantum computers will be able to break the cryptographic security of Bitcoin and other blockchains by 2033. The aggressive scenario points to 2030, the conservative one to 2042.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has announced plans to launch the first regulated Bitcoin volatility futures on 1 June. The BVX index, calculated from the exchange’s options market data, will serve as the basis for pricing.

USD/JPY is holding near 156.83 on Friday. Despite heightened volatility in recent sessions, the yen is set to end the week broadly unchanged. Fears of intervention and Tokyo's firm rhetoric have failed to support a sustained strengthening of the currency.

Japanese authorities have stated that they are not constrained by the frequency of their interventions in the foreign exchange market and remain in constant contact with the US. Earlier, the yen rose sharply amid suspected interventions on 30 April and 6 May, but there was no official confirmation of these actions.

Domestic data has been stronger. Real wages rose for the third consecutive month, supporting expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Nevertheless, the external backdrop remains negative. A stronger dollar and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 156.50 and is moving higher towards 157.39. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 156.50 before a further move higher towards 157.90. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum is building.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has reached 156.95 and is now pulling back towards 156.50. A rebound towards 157.00 may follow, with a possible extension to 157.39. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.

Conclusion

The yen has stabilised near 156.83 against the dollar, but intervention risks persist despite Tokyo's verbal warnings. Domestic wage growth supports BoJ tightening expectations, yet external factors such as a strong dollar and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the currency. Technically, a short-term rise to 157.39 may be followed by a pullback to 156.50 before any further upside develops.