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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1705; (P) 1.1743; (R1) 1.1762; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. With 1.1642 support intact, rise from 1.1408 is expected to continue. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1537). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.32; (P) 156.64; (R1) 157.26; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first, and risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.92 resistance holds. Below 155.01 will resume the fall from 160.71 to 61.8% projection of 160.71 to 155.48 from 157.92 at 154.68. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 152.69. That would be close to key 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). However, firm break of 157.92 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.01) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3522; (P) 1.3577; (R1) 1.3607; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point, as sideway trading continues. Further rise is expected with 1.3453 support intact. On the upside, above 1.3657 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3158 to 1.3598 from 1.3453 at 1.3725 first. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. However, break of 1.3453 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3158 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7778; (P) 0.7793; (R1) 0.7822; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758. Firm break there will extend the fall from 0.8041 to 100% projection at 0.7656. On the upside, above 0.7847 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8042) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7187; (P) 0.7226; (R1) 0.7247; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen below 0.7277 first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7101 support holds. ON the upside, break of 0.7277 will resume larger rise to 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3634; (P) 1.3651; (R1) 1.3683; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.3549. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3709 resistance holds. Below 1.3549 will resume the fall from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. However, firm break of 1.3709 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report may be today’s headline event on the economic calendar, but markets are behaving as though the real story lies thousands of miles away in the Strait of Hormuz. For much of the past two days, investors had embraced a growing “peace trade,” betting that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to a deal that could end the conflict and fully reopen one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Oil prices plunged, equities surged to record highs, and markets increasingly positioned for a post-conflict normalization phase.

But overnight events served as a reminder that the path toward peace remains highly unstable. Reports emerged that US and Iranian forces exchanged fire directly in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing the other of triggering the confrontation.

According to US Central Command, three American destroyers — USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason — intercepted coordinated drone and missile attacks while passing through the Strait late Thursday. Iran, meanwhile, accused Washington of violating the fragile ceasefire by striking multiple targets around the waterway earlier in the day.

The exchange suggests that the current situation is not yet a genuine normalization, but still a highly fragile form of managed confrontation. The deeper disagreement between Washington and Tehran remains unresolved. The core friction is not merely about ending military operations, but about Iran’s nuclear program itself.

Adding to tensions, US President Donald Trump renewed his threat of overwhelming military escalation if Iran refuses to sign the proposed agreement quickly. “Just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future,” Trump warned overnight.

Yet despite the dramatic rhetoric and naval clashes, markets are not fully returning to panic mode. Instead, investors appear stuck between optimism and caution. US stocks only eased modestly overnight after recent record-breaking rallies, while Asian equities traded mildly lower. Major currency pairs also stayed trapped within yesterday ranges. Brent crude rebounded back to $100 after briefly collapsing to $96 yesterday. Gold also remained relatively steady around $4,700.

For the week so far, Kiwi is currently the strongest, followed by Aussie, and then Swiss Franc. Loonie is the worst, followed by Sterling, and then Dollar. Euro and Yen are positioning in the middle.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.47%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.14%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.33%. Singapore Strait TImes is down -0.60%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.002 at 2.481. Overnight, DOW fell -0.63%. S&P 500 fell -0.38%. NASDAQ fell -0.13%. 10-year yield rose 0.03 to 4.39.

Dollar Faces Key NFP Test as Risk Sentiment Threatens Renewed Selloff

Today’s US payrolls report could determine whether the current risk-on rally keeps running. Markets are looking for a “Goldilocks” jobs number—soft enough to ease Fed pressure, but strong enough to avoid recession fears—which may leave Dollar vulnerable to renewed selling. Read More.

Japan Real Wage Growth Extends Gains Despite Slower Nominal Pay Growth

Japan’s real wages rose for a third consecutive month in March, supported by easing inflation and the strongest stretch of base pay growth in more than three decades. Read More.

Japan PMI Services Finalized at 51.0 as Middle East War Fuels Cost Pressures

Japan’s services sector lost momentum in April just as inflation pressures intensified sharply. Rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict pushed input prices to a three-and-a-half-year high and selling prices to their steepest increase in nearly two decades. Read More.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3634; (P) 1.3651; (R1) 1.3683; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.3549. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3709 resistance holds. Below 1.3549 will resume the fall from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. However, firm break of 1.3709 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Dollar is heading into today’s US payrolls report in a vulnerable position—not necessarily because the labor market is collapsing, but because markets are currently focused on risk appetite rather than pure Federal Reserve pricing.

Markets are expecting a sharp moderation in hiring after March’s surprisingly strong 178k payroll gain. Consensus forecasts point to job growth around 60k–65k in April, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% mom, while annual wage growth is projected to ease slightly toward the 3.5%–3.7% range.

Ironically, that softer range may actually be exactly what risk markets want. A “Goldilocks” payrolls report—cooler but not recessionary—could remove another layer of macro uncertainty and allow the powerful global risk-on rally to continue running.

The key complication is that leading indicators are not fully supporting the slowdown narrative. ADP private employment rebounded strongly to 109k from 61k previously, while the four-week average of initial jobless claims fell back toward historically low levels around 203k. ISM Services employment also remained in expansion territory at 53.6. The main soft spot came from ISM Manufacturing employment, which slipped further into contraction at 46.4. The broader labor market picture still looks resilient enough to create upside surprise risk for the headline payrolls number.

But the bigger issue for markets may not be the jobs number itself. NFP trading is often less about economics and more about positioning psychology. The initial one-to-five-minute spike after release is frequently dominated by algorithmic stop-hunting and violent reversals. The more important move usually emerges later, during the so-called “NFP drift,” when traders digest revisions, wage growth, and what the data actually means for the broader market environment.

That environment currently remains heavily tilted toward risk-taking. Equities continue hovering near record highs as investors increasingly price a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, lower oil prices, and a broader normalization of global conditions. In that context, even a moderately soft payrolls report may be interpreted positively if it reduces fears of renewed Fed hawkishness without triggering recession concerns.

That creates an unusual setup for Dollar. Under normal circumstances, stronger payrolls would support the greenback through higher yields and tighter Fed expectations. But today, stronger data could simply reinforce risk appetite and encourage more flows into equities and higher-beta currencies instead. Conversely, a modestly softer report may weaken Dollar directly by supporting the view that the Fed can eventually pivot without the economy collapsing.

Technically, Dollar Index's recent decline from 100.64 has stabilized temporarily just ahead 61.8% retracement of 95.55 to 100.64 at 97.49. But the broader near-term trend still favors further downside while 99.09 resistance holds. Decisive break below 97.49 could trigger another leg lower toward the 95.55 area.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY started a recovery wave from the 155.00 support zone.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at 156.45 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is now at risk of a downside break below 1.1700.
• The US nonfarm payrolls could change by 62K in April 2026.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar found support near 155.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a recovery wave above 155.50 and 156.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 157.89 swing high to the 155.03 low. The pair is now trading above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), but it is still well below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 157.00. The first major resistance sits at 157.20 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 157.89 swing high to the 155.03 low.

The main resistance could be 158.0. A close above 158.00 could open doors for gains above 158.80. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 159.20.

Immediate support is seen near 156.40. The next support could be 156.00. A close below 156.00 might push the pair toward 155.50. Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 152.00 in the coming days.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to stay above 1.1750 and now remains at risk of more losses below 1.1700.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US nonfarm payrolls for April 2026 – Forecast 62K, versus 178K previous.
• US Unemployment Rate for April 2026 - Forecast 4.3%, versus 4.3% previous.

Japan’s real wages rose 1.0% yoy in March, marking the third consecutive monthly increase as moderating inflation helped household purchasing power improve. The data suggest that wage growth is increasingly starting to outpace consumer price pressures, supporting hopes for a more sustainable recovery in domestic demand.

Nominal wages increased 2.7% yoy, extending gains to a 51st straight month, though the pace slowed from February’s 3.4% yoy increase. Scheduled earnings, which include base pay and family allowances, rose 3.2% yoy, marking the first time in more than 33 years that regular pay growth has exceeded 3% for three consecutive months. Overtime pay also increased 1.9%, while special payments such as bonuses fell -1.5%.

Consumer inflation used in the wage calculation slowed to 1.6%, staying below 2% for a third straight month thanks partly to government utility and gas subsidies.

A labor ministry official said authorities do not yet see a significant impact from the Middle East conflict on wages or prices but are monitoring developments closely.

The figures are likely to support the BoJ’s view that a positive wage-price cycle is gradually taking hold, though uncertainty tied to rising energy costs remains an important risk.