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During his visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump softened his stance on claims over Greenland. According to media reports, the US President pledged not to use military force against NATO allies and also withdrew threats to impose tariffs on goods from several European countries. This eased geopolitical tensions, leading not only to a recovery in US equities but also to a strengthening of the US dollar.

The USD/JPY chart, for example, shows the US dollar gaining ground against the yen (marked by the orange arrow), which is under pressure ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision scheduled for tomorrow.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart

In late December, when analysing movements in the dollar–yen exchange rate, we identified a long-term ascending channel that remains valid (with a slight adjustment to reflect January data).

The lower boundary of this channel continues to act as solid support, but it is under threat because:

→ as indicated by the red arrow, bears are asserting control over the lower internal trendlines within the channel;

→ today’s peak (B) only marginally exceeds the high of 15 January (A). This resembles a bull trap, and a failed attempt to move higher could trigger renewed bearish pressure.

How the situation develops next will largely depend on a dense and rapidly changing news backdrop. In addition to the drivers already mentioned, attention should be paid to the release of US GDP data and initial jobless claims (scheduled for today at 16:30 GMT+3), which could have a significant impact on USD/JPY dynamics.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1660; (P) 1.1701; (R1) 1.1727; More….

EUR/USD retreated well ahead of 1.1807 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1672) holds. Break of 1.1807 will will resume whole rally from 1.1467, and target a retest on 1.1917 key resistance level. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 1.1576 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1413) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.86; (P) 158.19; (R1) 158.64; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidations below 159.44 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 156.10 support intact, outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 159.44 will resume the rise from 139.87 towards 161.94 high. However, firm break of 156.10 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.86 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3400; (P) 1.3430; (R1) 1.3458; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.3494 will suggest that pullback from 1.3567 has completed at 1.3342, after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3382). Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.3567 first. Break there will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the decline is another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3787.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3787 for up trend resumption is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6734; (P) 0.6756; (R1) 0.6784; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise is part of the whole rally from 0.5913. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6667 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3800; (P) 1.3821; (R1) 1.3857; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral and further rise is still mildly in favor with 1.3789 support intact. Break of 1.3927 will resume the rebound from 1.3641, as part of the corrective pattern from 1.3538, towards 1.4139. However, firm break of 1.3789 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3538/3641 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral until there are signs that the correction has completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9255; (P) 0.9282; (R1) 0.9322; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/HF is turned neutral first with breach of 0.9297 minor resistance. Another fall will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.9347 resistance holds. Below 0.9253 will extend the decline from 0.9394 towards 0.9178 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.9347 will indicate that fall from 0.9394 has completed as a correction, and bring stronger rally to retest this resistance.

In the bigger picture, persistent bullish convergence condition in W MACD is a medium term bullish sign. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance should bring sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9360). That should indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next, even still as a corrective bounce. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8686; (P) 0.8716; (R1) 0.8733; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the downside, firm break of 0.8691 resistance turned support will suggest that rebound form 0.8643 has completed as a corrective bounce. Rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 0.8717) will keep the fall from 0.8863 intact. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.8643 low first, and then 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8623) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7230; (P) 1.7326; (R1) 1.7379; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.8160 resumed by breaking through 1.7287 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 1.8554. Next target is 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7466 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7464) argues that fall from 1.8554 medium term top is correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922, and possibly below. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.8160 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.90; (P) 212.34; (R1) 213.08; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY below 214.27 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 210.28 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 214.27 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 219.99 next. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 210.28 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 208.71).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.