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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation fell below $3T, slightly exceeding this round level at the start of active trading in Europe, but losing more than 2% in 24 hours. The market is once again below the 50-day moving average, and the growth momentum at the start of the year seems to have fallen through thin ice. The current situation contrasts with last year’s market behaviour, when we saw two dips below this trend line.

There is even more contrast between how Bitcoin is reacting to tariff threats now and in April. In April last year, Bitcoin rose alongside gold on the ‘sell America’ trade. Now, the first cryptocurrency looks even weaker than the stock market, as the S&P 500 has retreated from its high just over a week ago by only 3%. For comparison, BTC’s high was set more than three months ago and has since retreated by more than 30%.

The bearish picture is further underscored by the fact that the recovery rebound stalled at the classic 61.8% retracement of the autumn decline. At the same time, the pace of decline has increased significantly in recent days. In these conditions, it is worth being prepared for an imminent test of necessary medium-term support in the $80-84K range, where Bitcoin was bought in November and December.

News Background

Bitcoin could fall to the $58K- $62K range, predicts analyst Peter Brandt. According to him, attention has now shifted to this year’s opening levels around $87K as potential support.

Traders on the Deribit derivatives exchange estimate the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80K by the end of June at 30%. At the same time, the likelihood of growth above $120K by the exact date is only 19%.

Strategy has made another large purchase of Bitcoin. Between 12 and 18 January, the company bought 22,305 BTC ($2.12 billion) at an average price of $95,284 per coin. Strategy now owns 709,715 BTC, purchased for $53.9 billion at an average price of $75,979 per bitcoin.

Bitmine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, also added 35,268 ETH ($108 million) to its crypto reserves last week. The company’s reserves exceeded 4.2 million ETH.

Canadian billionaire Frank Giustra has questioned Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset. In his opinion, the first cryptocurrency is much easier to confiscate than precious metals, which makes investing in digital assets risky.

Market reaction to US President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated speech at the World Economic Forum was relatively muted, suggesting investors had already priced in a confrontational tone. Greenland remained the central issue for market participants. Trump’s remarks offered partial relief, as he appeared to rule out military action to secure control of the island, addressing one of the market’s most immediate tail risks.

Trump explicitly said he would not use force, stating that while the U.S. could act with “excessive strength,” he had no intention of doing so. That clarification removed the most extreme scenario from the near-term outlook and helped cap further risk escalation.

However, the relief was narrow. Trump continued to press firmly for U.S. control of Greenland, repeatedly framing the issue as one of strategic necessity, not negotiation posture. He argued that ownership—not leasing or basing rights—is essential for defense, saying the U.S. cannot protect Greenland under a lease arrangement. He framed the island as a future strategic battleground, emphasizing missile trajectories and North Atlantic security.

He also launched a pointed critique of Denmark, arguing it lacks the capacity to secure Greenland and asserting that the island is effectively part of North America. Trump said no country other than the U.S. could guarantee Greenland’s security. Crucially, Trump reiterated his intent to pursue immediate negotiations over acquisition, keeping geopolitical uncertainty firmly alive. While the threat of force was dialed back, the broader standoff with Europe remains unresolved.

Markets reflected this mixed message. U.S. equity indexes opened mildly higher, suggesting relief that rhetoric did not escalate further. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield eased back toward 4.28%, stabilizing after recent volatility. Yet beneath the surface, stress signals persist. Gold remains firm above 4,800, hovering just below the 5,000 psychological level. The inability of gold to correct meaningfully despite calmer headlines points to underlying distrust and hedging demand.

In FX markets, Dollar remains at the bottom of the weekly performance table, followed by Yen and Sterling. Kiwi Leads, with Swiss Franc and Aussie close behind, while Euro and Loonie sit mid-pack—consistent with a market that is calmer, but far from comfortable.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.19%. DAX is down -0.64%. CAC is up 0.18%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.006 at 4.456. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.015 at 2.876. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.41%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.37%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.08%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.38%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.056 to 2.288.

SNB Schlegel sees no issue with negative inflation prints if temporary

The SNB is not alarmed by recent soft inflation data, according to Chairman Martin Schlegel. He said inflation is expected to pick up, but the SNB is prepared to tolerate temporary negative readings, provided medium-term price stability remains intact.

"If we have some negative prints this year, for example, this is not a problem with the Swiss National Bank, because we look at the medium-term price stability," he added.

He also pointed to recent global political turbulence as a driver of Swiss Franc appreciation, reflecting its traditional safe-haven role. On reserve management, Schlegel declined to comment directly on whether the exchange-rate move would lead to changes in Dollar holdings, but reiterated the SNB’s commitment to diversification across currencies and asset classes, noting the bank continuously reviews its "investment universe" and stands ready to act if needed.

ECB's Lagarde: Tariffs manageable, Trump's constant reversals more damaging

ECB President Christine Lagarde said she expects only a "minimal" inflationary impact from additional U.S. tariffs, arguing that Eurozone price pressures remain firmly under control. Speaking to RTL, Lagarde noted that inflation is currently around 1.9%, leaving little scope for tariffs to materially disrupt the ECB’s inflation outlook.

Though, she acknowledged that the impact would not be evenly distributed, with Germany likely more exposed than France given its export-heavy manufacturing base. However, Lagarde argued that Europe would be far more resilient if it focused on removing non-tariff trade barriers within the EU, strengthening internal trade and competitiveness rather than reacting defensively to external shocks.

Lagarde’s sharper warning was reserved for uncertainty, not tariffs themselves. Referring to renewed threats from US President Donald Trump, who has vowed to impose escalating tariffs on several European countries over Greenland, she said the "constant reversals" and unpredictability pose a more serious risk. Trump, she added, often takes a transactional approach, setting demands at “sometimes completely unrealistic” levels.

UK CPI rises to 3.4%, core holds at cycle low of 3.2%

UK inflation firmed at the end of 2025, with headline pressure coming in slightly hotter than expected. CPI rose to 3.4% yoy in December, up from 3.2% and above expectations of 3.3%, while prices increased 0.4% mom, pointing to ongoing near-term inflation momentum.

The upside in headline inflation, however, masked relative stability in underlying pressures. Core CPI—excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco—was unchanged at 3.2% yoy, undershooting expectations of 3.3%, and marking the joint-lowest reading since December 2024. Core inflation was last lower in September 2021, reinforcing the view that underlying disinflation progress, while slow, remains intact.

By component, services inflation edged up to 4.5% yoy from 4.4%, keeping the sector firmly in focus for the BoE, while goods inflation rose to 2.2% from 2.1%.

AUD/USD Mid-Day Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6713; (P) 0.6730; (R1) 0.6753; More...

AUD/USD's rally from 0.5913 resumed by breaking through 0.6765 resistance today. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910 next. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6667 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1649; (P) 1.1709; (R1) 1.1785; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for 1.1807 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.1467, and target a retest on 1.1917 key resistance level. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1670) holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1413) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.55; (P) 158.07; (R1) 158.68; More...

USD/JPY is extending consolidations below 159.44 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 156.10 support intact, outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 159.44 will resume the rise from 139.87 towards 161.94 high. However, firm break of 156.10 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.86 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3398; (P) 1.3445; (R1) 1.3488; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.3494 will suggest that pullback from 1.3567 has completed at 1.3342, after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3379). Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.3567 first. Break there will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the decline is another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3787.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3787 for up trend resumption is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7858; (P) 0.7921; (R1) 0.964; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the downside at this point. Firm break of 0.7860 support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. Next target will be 0.7382 projection level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7963) holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3808; (P) 1.3844; (R1) 1.3873; More...

Immediate focus in on 1.3789 support as USD/CAD's fall from 1.3927 accelerates lower. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.3641 has completed. Deeper decline should be seen back to 1.3538/3641 support zone. ON the upside, above 1.3927 will resume the rebound towards 1.4139 resistance. Overall price actions from 1.3538 are seen as a consolidation to the fall from 1.4791, and might still extend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral until there are signs that the correction has completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6713; (P) 0.6730; (R1) 0.6753; More...

AUD/USD's rally from 0.5913 resumed by breaking through 0.6765 resistance today. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910 next. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6667 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

The SNB is not alarmed by recent soft inflation data, according to Chairman Martin Schlegel. He said inflation is expected to pick up, but the SNB is prepared to tolerate temporary negative readings, provided medium-term price stability remains intact.

"If we have some negative prints this year, for example, this is not a problem with the Swiss National Bank, because we look at the medium-term price stability," he added.

He also pointed to recent global political turbulence as a driver of Swiss Franc appreciation, reflecting its traditional safe-haven role. On reserve management, Schlegel declined to comment directly on whether the exchange-rate move would lead to changes in Dollar holdings, but reiterated the SNB’s commitment to diversification across currencies and asset classes, noting the bank continuously reviews its "investment universe" and stands ready to act if needed.

As the BTC/USD chart shows, the price of the leading cryptocurrency slipped below the psychological $90k level earlier this morning. This downward move provides grounds for several important observations.

→ First, bitcoin is performing poorly as a defensive asset. At a time when global markets are assessing risks linked to US ambitions regarding Greenland, gold is once again proving its well-established safe-haven status, having climbed above $4,700 yesterday. By contrast, bitcoin is tracking technology stocks — with the Nasdaq 100 currently at its lowest levels since the start of the year.

→ Second, the price is moving towards a key support area, increasing the risk of a much deeper decline if that support is breached.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

On 8 January, we discussed bitcoin’s price action within a system of two channels, both of which remain relevant. At the time, we noted that a sharp rebound from the $90k level (marked by a black arrow) signalled renewed bullish activity.

Since then:

→ bullish efforts pushed the price into the upper half of the red channel and led to a break above local resistance; however, bitcoin failed to hold at these higher levels, forming a bull trap (indicated by the red arrow);

→ bears subsequently regained control and drove BTC/USD back below the psychological $90k mark.

This behaviour highlights the persistence of selling pressure and increases the risk of a break below support that has been in place throughout 2025.

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