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Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.85; (P) 182.75; (R1) 183.26; More...

Immediate focus is now on 182.00 support in EUR/JPY with today's decline. Firm break there will resume the fall from 184.75 to retest 180.78 low. Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 186.86 is already correcting whole up rise from 154.77, and solidify the near term bearish outlook. On the upside, above 184.75 will resume the rebound from 180.78 to retest 186.86 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 175.29) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Markets stayed cautious today as hopes for a multinational naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz ran into early resistance from key governments. While the proposal briefly raised expectations that the disruption to Middle East energy flows might be contained, several countries have so far stopped short of committing naval assets, leaving traders waiting for clearer signals before taking large positions.

Oil prices remain elevated as a result. With the lack of progress on securing shipping routes, energy markets continue to price in the risk that crude flows through the Strait could face sustained disruption. At the same time, prices have not exploded higher because investors still believe some form of protection for tanker traffic could eventually emerge.

That balance between risk and hope has produced a relatively calm tone across broader markets. Currency trading has been subdued, with most major pairs holding within Friday’s ranges. Investors appear reluctant to commit ahead of both geopolitical developments and a packed week of central bank meetings.

The proposed escort mission first gained traction after US President Donald Trump publicly urged several nations to contribute naval forces to protect commercial shipping. Countries mentioned included Japan, South Korea, Britain, France and China. The idea was that a coordinated patrol effort could shift the situation from fears of a complete supply cutoff toward a scenario of “managed disruption.”

However, the diplomatic response has been cautious at best. Australia directly rejected participation, with Transport Minister Catherine King stating that Canberra would not be sending a naval vessel and that the country had not been asked to contribute in that capacity.

European responses have been similarly restrained. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has adopted a “wait and see” approach while coordinating discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and Germany’s foreign minister Johann Wadephul openly expressed skepticism about the proposal, saying Berlin does not intend to become an active participant in the conflict.

France has taken a more conditional stance, noting that it has previously examined the possibility of an international mission to escort vessels through the strait but stressing that such an operation would only be considered when circumstances permit and once the intensity of fighting subsides.

In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also indicated that Tokyo has made no decision on dispatching escort vessels. She told the Upper House that Japan is still studying what actions might be possible within the country’s legal framework and what could be done independently.

Equity markets in the region showed mixed reactions. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index managed to edge higher, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data showing improved industrial production, retail sales and investment. Still, gains remained limited amid continued uncertainty about the global outlook.

China’s property sector remains the elephant in the room. The ongoing real estate slump continues to weigh on investor confidence, and the country also faces a unique vulnerability to any Hormuz disruption as roughly half of its seaborne crude imports originate from the region. Even if Chinese vessels receive assurances of safe passage, higher global shipping costs could still squeeze manufacturing margins.

In currency markets, the Japanese Yen strengthened slightly following renewed intervention warnings from Tokyo. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told Parliament the government is maintaining “maximum vigilance” and stands ready to take “decisive steps” against excessive volatility. The 160 level in USD/JPY is now seen by some as the "red line" that could trigger official action.

Elsewhere, currencies remain largely range-bound as traders look ahead to one of the busiest weeks of monetary policy decisions this year. Meetings from the RBA, BoC, Fed, BoJ, BoE, SNB and ECB are scheduled, keeping investors cautious as they wait for both geopolitical and policy clarity.

In Asia, Nikkei fell -0.09%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.44%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.37%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.26%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.029 to 2.274.

Gold breaks 5,000 as “Safe Haven Paradox” returns, 4,815 now key

Gold came under pressure earlier in the day, slipping below the 5,000 psychological level in what could be described as a “safe haven paradox,” where Dollar strength is overpowering traditional war-driven demand for bullion. Technically, the break of key support suggests downside risk toward 4,815.

China industrial production, retail sales, investment beat expectations in Jan–Feb

China’s economic activity showed a stronger-than-expected start to 2026, with industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all beating forecasts. However, the property sector remains a key drag on the broader recovery.

New Zealand BNZ services falls back Into contraction, weak demand hits

New Zealand’s services sector slipped back into contraction in February, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dropping to 48.0. Weak demand, high living costs and elevated interest rates continue to weigh on activity.

Seven central banks, one energy shock: Critical monetary policy week

The coming week marks one of the most consequential policy periods of 2026, with seven major central banks—including the Fed, RBA, BoJ, BoE and ECB—meeting within days of each other. The decisions come as surging oil prices from Middle East tensions reshape the global inflation outlook, forcing markets to reassess expectations for rate cuts and the broader direction of monetary policy.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.85; (P) 182.75; (R1) 183.26; More...

Immediate focus is now on 182.00 support in EUR/JPY with today's decline. Firm break there will resume the fall from 184.75 to retest 180.78 low. Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 186.86 is already correcting whole up rise from 154.77, and solidify the near term bearish outlook. On the upside, above 184.75 will resume the rebound from 180.78 to retest 186.86 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 186.86 and some more consolidations would be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 175.29) holds, the larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) remains intact. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD extended losses and traded below 1.1480.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.1550 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD also declined further and traded below 1.3320.
• Crude oil prices could continue to rise and might test $112.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed to stay above 1.1550 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD declined further and traded below 1.1500 to enter a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled well below 1.1500, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1550.

The pair traded as low as 1.1411 and is currently consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing sellers near 1.1470. The first major resistance sits at 1.1500. A close above 1.1500 could open the doors for gains above 1.1520.

In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1550 and the trend line. Any more gain might open the doors for a test of 1.1660 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

If there is no recovery wave, the pair might start a fresh decline. Immediate support is seen near 1.1420. The first key support sits at 1.1400. A close below 1.1400 might call for heavy losses. In the stated case, it could even revisit 1.1320 in the coming days.

Looking at Crude oil, the bulls seem to be active above $95.00, and they could soon aim for a fresh wave above $105 and $112.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Industrial Production for Feb 2026 (MoM) – Forecast 0.2%, versus 0.7% previous.

China’s economic activity showed a stronger-than-expected start to 2026, with key indicators rebounding in the January–February period. Industrial production rose 6.3% yoy, well above market expectations of 5.1%. Retail sales increased 2.8% yoy, also beating forecasts of 2.5%.

Investment also surprised to the upside. Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% yoy, sharply outperforming expectations for a -2.1% decline. The improvement was largely driven by stronger spending in infrastructure and manufacturing. Excluding property development, investment increased 5.2% from a year earlier.

However, the property sector remained a major drag on the economy. Real estate development investment fell -11.1% in the first two months of the year, although the decline moderated from the -17.2% drop recorded in 2025.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the economy had made a “good start” to the year, but cautioned that external uncertainties, rising geopolitical risks and structural challenges continue to pose difficulties for businesses and the broader economic transition.

Gold slipped back below 5,000 psychological level in Asian trading today, and the decline reveals an unusual dynamic dominating markets in 2026: escalating war is failing to lift Gold. Despite intensifying conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran in the Middle East, investors are increasingly abandoning the metal in favor of the Dollar, creating what could be described as a “Safe Haven Paradox.”

The reason lies in the energy shock rippling through global markets. Brent crude remains anchored near the 100 level as instability threatens supply routes across the Middle East. As a result, the dominant market concern has shifted away from geopolitical risk itself and toward the inflation consequences of surging energy prices.

Rising energy costs risk keeping inflation sticky, forcing investors to rethink the outlook for monetary policy. Markets are rapidly pricing out Fed rate cuts for 2026, while speculation is growing that other major central banks may also need to keep policy tighter.

That shift has pushed Treasury yields higher and strengthened Dollar broadly. For Gold, the environment is hostile. As a non-yielding asset, the metal becomes less attractive when interest rates rise, while Dollar benefits simultaneously from higher yields and its status as the world’s deepest liquidity haven.

Technically, last week’s recovery to 5,238.55 was somewhat stronger than expected. Nevertheless, the broader structure of Gold’s correction remains intact. The decline from 5,419.02 is viewed as the third leg of the corrective pattern following the 5,598.38 peak.

The break below 4996.03 support today signals that this decline has resumed. The next target at 100% projection of 5,419.02 to 4,996.03 from 5,238.55 at 4,815.55. This level is the key near-term focus for traders. Firm break there would prompt downward acceleration to 161.8% projection at 4,554.13.

Looking further ahead, Gold is seen as correcting the broader uptrend that began from 2022 low at 1614.60. Deeper fall is likely to 4,000 region, which is slightly below 38.2% retracement of 1,614.60 to 5,598.38 at 4,076.57, or a bit lower to 55 W EMA (now at 4,005.22)

Though, that zone is likely to attract longer-term buyers and may eventually serve as the foundation for the next bullish cycle in the precious metal.

New Zealand’s services sector slipped back into contraction in February. BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell from 50.7 to 48.0, well below the survey’s long-term average of 52.8. The sector’s return to expansion proved short-lived, lasting only two months before momentum faded again.

The decline was broad-based across key components. Activity and sales dropped from 53.8 to 47.9, while employment fell from 49.0 to 47.2. New orders and business also weakened, slipping from 51.6 to 49.3, suggesting demand conditions remain soft despite signs of stabilization in parts of the manufacturing sector.

Negative sentiment remained elevated. Around 56.4% of comments were negative in February, slightly lower than January’s 58.7% but still above December’s 50.4%. Businesses pointed to weak economic conditions, high living costs, inflation and interest rates as factors restraining consumer spending.

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said the latest PSI was “a real disappointment,” noting that it signals the economy is recovering more slowly than expected despite the relatively upbeat Performance of Manufacturing Index released last week.

Full NZ BNZ PSI release here.

The coming week represents a rare convergence of global monetary policy decisions, with seven major central banks meeting within days of each other. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank will all announce policy decisions, making it arguably the most consequential week for global macro markets in 2026 so far.

What makes these meetings particularly significant is the dramatic shift in the global inflation outlook. Escalating military conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supply routes and driven oil and gas prices sharply higher. The resulting energy shock is forcing policymakers and investors alike to reconsider whether the global easing cycle may need to be reversed.

Federal Reserve – March 18

FOMC meeting will be the central event of the week. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. However, the key issue is how policymakers respond to the recent oil shock.

Market pricing for a June rate cut has dropped to around 20%, reflecting expectations that higher energy prices could delay the easing cycle. Economists surveyed by Reuters still lean toward a June cut, with 63 of 96 expecting rates to be lowered to 3.25–3.50% next quarter, likely after Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Still, conviction is weakening, and nearly 40% of economists now expect only one cut or none this year.

Attention will focus on the updated dot plot and economic projections. Powell’s messaging on energy inflation will be critical. If he signals the Fed will look through the oil spike as transitory, markets may interpret that as dovish. But emphasis on potential second-round inflation effects in wages and services would signal a more hawkish stance.

Reserve Bank of Australia – March 17

The RBA decision opens the policy week, and Australia may deliver the most immediate policy action. According to a Reuters poll, 23 of 30 economists expect a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85%. The median forecast now sees rates reaching 4.35% by the end of 2026.

The focus will be on whether Governor Michele Bullock signals that further tightening remains possible. Policymakers may frame the expected hike as insurance against inflation risks tied to the global energy shock, while leaving the door open for additional moves depending on the upcoming Q1 CPI report.

Bank of Canada – March 18

The BoC is expected to hold rates at 2.25%, with all 33 economists surveyed by Reuters forecasting no change. Despite rising global inflation risks, 76% of economists believe rates will remain unchanged through the end of 2026, reflecting concerns about domestic growth.

Governor Tiff Macklem’s tone will be closely watched, particularly after Canada’s weak February employment data. Markets will also focus on how the BoC views the oil surge, which presents a mixed macro signal for Canada—supporting energy exports while potentially weighing on broader economic activity.

Bank of Japan – March 19

The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75%, according to all 64 economists surveyed by Reuters. However, expectations for further normalization remain intact, with around 60% predicting a hike to 1.00% by June.

Two new members are expected to join the board later in Q2. Despite being viewed as more reflationary, most economists believe their presence will not prevent the BoJ from continuing its gradual tightening path.

Bank of England – March 19

The BoE is also expected to hold rates at 3.75%, with about 85% of economists supporting a pause. This represents a major shift from February, when most economists expected the BoE to continue cutting rates. Markets now see the next rate cut delayed until September, reflecting renewed inflation risks from higher energy prices.

As usual, the key surprise factor lies in the vote split within the Monetary Policy Committee. While unlikely, any hawkish dissent favoring a rate hike would signal growing concern about inflation persistence.

European Central Bank – March 19

The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2%, with more than 90% of economists forecasting no change through 2026. Only a handful of economists expect either a hike or a cut this year.

The main focus will be the updated staff projections, particularly inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. A significant upward revision in the 2026 HICP forecast—especially above 2.3%—could signal a hawkish shift in policy guidance.

President Christine Lagarde’s tone will also be critical, especially regarding the risk of stagflation. Markets will listen closely for any reference to recession risks as Europe grapples with the economic consequences of higher energy prices.

Swiss National Bank – March 19

The SNB is expected to keep rates at 0.00%. With the Swiss franc benefiting from safe-haven demand during the geopolitical turmoil, the SNB’s main concern will likely be preventing excessive currency strength.

For currency markets, the key message will be whether the SNB signals greater willingness to intervene in FX markets. Any indication that policymakers are prepared to sell francs aggressively to cap appreciation—particularly against Euro—could have immediate implications for CHF pairs.

Markets reacted to signs that the conflict with Iran could last longer than first expected. Oil was very volatile during the week. Crude briefly moved above $100 early in the week, then pulled back, but later climbed again and finished just below $100. The main concern is that Iran may try to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world’s most important oil routes.

Stock markets were weaker. U.S. equity markets fell for the third straight week as higher oil prices raised concerns about inflation and reduced expectations for quick interest rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei also declined despite the weak yen. The U.S. dollar stayed strong because rising energy prices could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Economic data had less impact than the geopolitical news. Japan’s GDP came in stronger than expected, while U.S. inflation was roughly in line with forecasts. However, U.S. GDP and durable goods data were weaker than expected. Gold struggled to move higher as much of the geopolitical risk already appears to be priced in, and the strong U.S. dollar encouraged some selling.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The downtrend in the Dow has become stronger, and with the war unlikely to end quickly, following the trend appears to be the best strategy for now. Continued disruption from higher oil prices and possible shipping problems in the Middle East could have negative effects on the global economy. While the market is already bearish, traders may look for the Dow to rebound toward the 10-day moving average before considering new selling opportunities this week. Resistance levels are at 47,500, 48,000, 48,500, and 49,000. Support is seen at 46,500, 46,000, 45,730, and 45,500.

Japanese Stocks

Japan is a major importer of oil, so higher energy prices could have a negative impact on business costs and economic data, even though the government plans to release oil reserves to help stabilize supply. The Nikkei’s recent downtrend has strengthened, and the growing risk that the Bank of Japan may intervene to support the yen could also create pressure on Japanese stocks. Like the Dow, the 10-day moving average is now pointing lower and may act as resistance this week, making it a possible level where traders look for selling opportunities. Resistance is seen at 54,750, 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000, while support is at 52,000円, 51,000円, and 50,000円.

USD/JPY

Higher oil prices are increasing inflation expectations in the United States, reducing the chances of interest rate cuts and supporting the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY closed just below the 160 level, which is an area where the Bank of Japan has intervened in the past. Markets are clearly aware of the intervention risk, so traders may be cautious about buying at these levels. However, if the war continues and the Bank of Japan does not intervene, the pair could continue to move higher. Resistance is at 160, 162, and 165, while support is seen at 159.00, 158.00 and 156.50.

Gold

Gold tried to move higher early in the week as tensions in Iran increased, but many traders were already long and the stronger U.S. dollar limited gains. As a result, gold finished the week just above the important $5,000 level. Short-term indicators have turned slightly negative, and if the market breaks below $5,000 this week it could trigger a quick move lower. Resistance is at $5,200, $5,250, $5,400, $5,418, and $5,500, while support is at $5,000, $4,900, and $4,850.

Crude Oil

Crude oil opened the week with another gap higher as fighting in Iran intensified, but prices briefly pulled back to the 10-day moving average, which held as strong support. As the week progressed, concerns grew that the war could last longer than expected and that Iran may try to disrupt oil shipments from the Middle East. Oil finished the week strongly, and although buying near the $100 resistance level may be late, looking to buy on pullbacks while the conflict continues could be the better strategy this week. Resistance is at $100, $110, $120, $125, and $130, while support is at $90, $80, $75, $70, and $67.5.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin recovered from support during the week, attracting some speculative buying as trading conditions remained relatively quiet and many traders focused on other markets. The market continues to move sideways, and range trading between $65,000 and $75,000 remains the preferred short-term strategy. Resistance is at $75,000, $80,000, and $85,000, while support is at $65,000, $60,000, and $55,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Monday: China Industrial Production and Unemployment Rate, U.s> NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production
• Tuesday: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S. Pending Home Sales
• Wednesday: Japan Trade Balance, E.U. CPI, U.S. PPI, Factory Orders and Fed Interest Rate Decision
• Thursday: Australia Unemployment Rate, Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Industrial Production, U.K. Unemployment Rate and BoE Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Building Permits, E.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision
• Friday: E.U. Trade Balance

Another volatile week is likely ahead, with many trading opportunities as markets begin to assess how much damage the war in Iran could cause to the global economy. Equity markets have continued to fall, raising the risk that panic selling could start to appear if sentiment worsens, while oil prices could spike higher again if tensions escalate. USD/JPY has also moved close to 160, bringing the market near levels where the Bank of Japan could consider intervention.

Several major central banks are meeting this week. The U.S., Japan, and the U.K. are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while Australia may raise rates. Markets will closely watch the central bank statements for clues about future policy, especially as higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated and complicate rate decisions.

CHFJPY currency pair is poised for more upside despite recent decline and choppy price action. How further can the long term bullish cycle continue before the next big pullback?

Yen pairs have demonstrated significant bullish trends since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged. Following a bearish cycle in 2016, these pairs experienced a surge throughout 2017 and into 2018, although they subsequently retraced until January 2019. This robust bullish trend, which emerged after a sell-off between January 2015 and June 2016, is largely attributed to the Bank of Japan’s persistent implementation of ultra-loose monetary policies, in contrast to the monetary policy tightening observed in other major banks in the post-COVID-19 era. As a result of the weakened JPY, the CHFJPY has reached record highs.

CHFJPY Long term View

From our Elliott wave perspective, we shared the long term view on the weekly charts. There, we reckoned the low of January 2019 to depict the end of the grand supercycle degree ((II)). From that low, price completed sub-waves (I), (II), (III) and (IV) of ((III)) and now in (V). From the low of September 2024 where wave (IV) ended, we reckoned price had completed waves ((1)), ((2)), ((3)) and ((4)) of I of (IV) of ((III)). Thus, price is in the wave ((5)) which started from the low of February 2026.

Therefore, the most recent significant bullish cycle on this pair started in February and its end will most likely mark the end of the broader bullish cycle from September 2024. Thus, a big corrective pullback of the September 2024 cycle may not be that far away. However, Elliott wave theory shows wave ((5)) is not yet over and short-term traders can still buy the dips. Let’s now check the smaller cycles.

CHFJPY Elliott Wave Analysis – 1st Scenario

As the H4 chart shows, wave ((5)) appears to be in its early stages. Following the completion of waves (1) and (2) of ((5)), wave (3) began on March 3rd and could extend to the 208.33-210.79 region. The current pullback is anticipated as wave 2 of (3), correcting the previous 5-wave advance that surpassed the prior peak. Wave 2 is expected to end above the March 3rd low, likely between 201.76 and 201.15. From this zone, a new short-term bullish cycle should emerge for wave 3 of (3). As it establishes a new high, traders can look to buy the dips, as wave (3) is still a distance away. However, if this zone is breached and the price reaches the low of (2), the second scenario below should unfold.

CHFJPY Elliott Wave Analysis – 2nd Scenario

If the pullback extends below the low of wave (2) in the first scenario, a deeper wave (2) with an irregular flat structure could form. The flat could be contained between 200.42 and [#######], where new support might emerge. From this support level, or slightly below, we could see a new wave (3) emerge. Traders should wait for a break of the previous high to confirm the count, then look to buy the dips. Overall, the bullish run should continue as long as the pair trades above the 197.60 pivot.

CHFJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• CHFJPY reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 200.40

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 203.60 (top of wave 1 from February) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

Given the strength of the resistance level 203.60 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 200.40.