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Markets Party on Peace Hopes, but Oil and Beirut Strike Warn Risks Aren’t Gone

ActionForex

Global markets are throwing a full-scale “peace party.” Equities are surging relentlessly, risk appetite is exploding higher, and investors are increasingly behaving as though the Middle East crisis is already moving toward resolution. But beneath the rally, oil markets and renewed violence in Lebanon are flashing warnings that the geopolitical story may not be nearly as settled as stock investors want to believe.

Wall Street led the charge overnight as S&P 500 and NASDAQ blasted to fresh record highs. The momentum then rolled straight into Asia, where Nikkei climbed to another historic peak while KOSPI paused only briefly after reaching yet another intraday record. The market narrative has clearly shifted from war panic toward peace optimism.

The catalyst remains growing confidence that the US and Iran are moving closer to a framework agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are increasingly betting that the proposed 14-point memorandum of understanding will either produce a formal peace deal or, at minimum, prevent further military escalation. For equity investors, that distinction is enough. Markets are increasingly treating “no new escalation” as effectively equivalent to peace.

The result has been a rapid unwind of the entire “war trade.” Dollar is under broad pressure this week, while risk-sensitive currencies and global equities continue to rally aggressively. Oil prices have also fallen sharply from their highs, with Brent briefly crashing below the critical $100 mark earlier this week.

But the fact that Brent is still hovering near $100 may actually be one of the most important signals in markets right now. Oil traders are not fully buying the optimism yet. If energy markets were genuinely convinced the crisis had been resolved, crude prices would likely be much lower already.

One reason is that the regional picture remains extremely fragile. Israel reportedly launched strikes on Beirut on Wednesday for the first time since agreeing to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last month. Israel said the operation targeted a commander from Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital.

That strike carries broader significance because the Lebanon ceasefire is one of the pillars supporting the wider US-Iran truce. Tehran had viewed a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon as one of the critical conditions for broader de-escalation. Renewed military action therefore raises questions about how durable the current diplomatic momentum really is.

In other words, equities may be pricing peace faster than geopolitics can realistically deliver it. Investors are clearly leaning toward a no-escalation outcome, but crude markets still reflect lingering anxiety that the regional situation could deteriorate again quickly if negotiations break down or regional actors lose control of events.

Meanwhile, another major market focus remains Yen after the extraordinary volatility of the past two weeks. Japanese Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura escalated Tokyo’s anti-speculator rhetoric today by declaring Japan faces “no constraints” on how often it can intervene in currency markets. He also revealed that Japanese authorities remain in daily contact with Washington.

Perhaps most importantly, Mimura said the US “fully understand our thinking and our actions,” effectively signaling to markets that Tokyo believes it has a green light from Washington to continue defending Yen aggressively if necessary. That message was widely interpreted as a direct warning to speculators betting against the Japanese currency.

Markets are now looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s trip to Japan next week, where discussions are expected to cover speculative Yen selling, economic security issues, energy procurement, and potentially the Iran conflict itself.

For now, risk appetite remains dominant. Kiwi and Aussie are leading gains this week, while Loonie and Dollar lag badly as falling oil and fading war fears unwind safe-haven positioning. But with oil still elevated and Lebanon tensions re-emerging, investors may soon discover that the path from ceasefire optimism to genuine regional stability is far more complicated than the current equity rally suggests.

In Asia, at the time of writing Nikkei is up 5.94%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.43%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.27%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.027 at 2.479. Overnight, DOW rose 1.24%. S&P 500 rose 1.46%. NASDAQ rose 2.02%. 10-year yield fell -0.06 to 4.36.

AUD/CAD Targeting Parity as Peace Optimism, Falling Oil and RBA-BoC Divergence Align

AUD/CAD is rapidly moving toward parity as multiple macro forces align in favor of the Aussie. Improving geopolitical sentiment is boosting global equities and pushing oil prices lower, while widening divergence between the hawkish RBA and constrained BoC adds further upside momentum to the cross. Read More.

Fed’s Goolsbee: Iran War Is Inflationary, Not Yet Stagflationary

Fed’s Austan Goolsbee drew a crucial distinction for markets: the Iran war is currently inflationary, not stagflationary. With jobs and growth still holding up, he remains more focused on persistent inflation and supply-chain disruptions than on supporting economic activity. Read more.

Macklem Warns Energy Shock Could Force Consecutive BoC Hikes

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a clear warning to markets: if elevated oil prices begin feeding into broader inflation, the Bank of Canada may need “consecutive increases” in interest rates. While policymakers are still looking through the initial energy shock, concern about persistent inflation is rising rapidly. Read More.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7185; (P) 0.7231; (R1) 0.7284; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rally should target 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, below 0.7223 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT CCY EVENTS Act Cons Prev Rev
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr -11.30% -10.50% -11.60%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar -1.84B 4.45B 5.69B 5.03B
06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Mar 1.10% 0.90%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves *CHF) Apr 721B
08:00 CHF Unemployment Rate M/M Apr 3.00% 3.00%
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Apr 46.2 45.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.40% -0.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 1) 199K 189K
12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q1 P 0.70% 1.80%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 P 2.60% 4.40%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage (May 1) 72B 79B

 

AUD/CAD Targeting Parity as Peace Optimism, Falling Oil and RBA-BoC Divergence Align

AUD/CAD is rapidly moving toward parity as multiple macro forces suddenly align in favor of the Aussie at the same time. The shift from Middle East war fears toward peace optimism is simultaneously boosting risk appetite globally while pressuring oil prices lower—a rare combination that strongly favors AUD over CAD.

The market narrative changed dramatically this week after reports suggested the US and Iran are moving closer to a framework agreement to end the conflict. Investors responded aggressively by piling back into risk assets. S&P 500 and NASDAQ surged to fresh record highs, while the rally spread across Asia with KOSPI and Nikkei also reaching new highs. That powerful risk-on backdrop is naturally supportive for the Australian Dollar, which remains one of the market’s preferred pro-cyclical currencies.

At the same time, the “peace trade” is crushing oil prices. Brent crude has fallen back toward the $100 area as traders rapidly unwind part of the geopolitical premium built during weeks of conflict around Hormuz. That matters enormously for CAD because lower oil prices directly weaken one of the Canadian Dollar’s biggest structural supports. In other words, the same geopolitical shift is helping AUD and hurting CAD simultaneously.

The longer-term macro story is reinforcing the move even further. The RBA has already hiked three times this year, taking rates to 4.35%, and its latest projections suggest rates could eventually move as high as 4.7%. Markets see the RBA as one of the few major central banks still leaning clearly hawkish as energy inflation risks remain elevated.

The BoC, however, is trapped in a much more difficult position. Governor Tiff Macklem sounded cautious and even warned that persistent inflation could eventually require “consecutive increases” in rates. But he also made clear that the Canadian economy remains highly exposed to US tariffs, trade uncertainty, and the upcoming CUSMA review process. That means the BoC is not realistically in a position to tighten aggressively yet, despite rising inflation concerns.

This divergence is visible in AUD/CAD price action. Technically, the medium-term uptrend from 0.8440 is resuming towards 0.9991 resistance (2021 high). Parity is not just a psychological talking point—it is a realistic technical objective. Decisive break above parity would confirm that the broader long-term uptrend from the 2020 low at 0.8058 has resumed.

In this bullish case, the next near term target is 100% projection of 0.9055 to 0.9749 from 0.9510 at 1.0204. Next medium term target is 0.8058 to 0.9991 from 0.8440 at 1.0373.

Stock Markets Rally on US-Iran Peace Hopes; Tech Drives S&P 500 to Record Highs

Key takeaways

  • Global risk appetite surged on US–Iran peace hopes: Reports of a potential peace memorandum between the US and Iran drove a sharp rally in global equities and a steep decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns and boosting sentiment across risk assets.
  • Tech and semiconductors powered record equity highs: The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and several Asian indices hit fresh record highs, led by strong momentum in semiconductor stocks after upbeat earnings and AI-related partnership developments involving Intel and AMD.
  • USD weakened while gold and JPY gained: The US dollar fell broadly as geopolitical risk premiums eased, triggering a 3%+ surge in gold above $4,700 and renewed strength in the Japanese yen amid suspected intervention and bearish technical signals on USD/JPY.
  • Chart of the day: USD/JPY has further potential downside pressure below 157.30/157.55 key short-term resistance. Next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05.

Top macro headlines

  • US-Iran peace deal hopes: Oil prices slumped and global stocks surged following news that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum to end the conflict, with the US concluding offensive operations.
  • US equities hit record highs: Bloomberg data highlights the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,259.22. The rally was heavily driven by the semiconductor sector, with Intel jumping 13% on Apple partnership reports and AMD soaring 16.5% after hours.
  • Gold spikes past $4,700: Spot gold climbed over 3% to $4,703/oz, hitting a multi-week high as the prospect of peace dragged down the US Dollar and shifted safe-haven dynamics.
  • Yen volatility persists: JPY rallied 1.8% to around 155.00 per USD on Wednesday, 8 May, Asian session on suspected “stealth intervention”.
  • US ADP Employment beats expectations: Private payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, surpassing the forecast of 99,000, signaling continued labor market tightness that complicates the Fed's easing path.

Key macro themes

  • Geopolitical de-escalation & energy Relief: The potential resolution of the Middle East conflict is rapidly pulling the extreme risk premium out of the energy markets. WTI crude falling back toward $100/bbl provides immediate relief to global inflation expectations.
  • The AI semiconductor supercycle: The tech sector continues to decouple from broader macro anxieties. Exceptional earnings beats and strategic partnerships (like Intel/Apple) are reinforcing semiconductors as the primary growth engine for global equities.
  • Dollar weakness and gold reallocation: The sudden drop in the US Dollar (spurred by peace hopes), has triggered an intraday massive capital rotation into gold, which surged around 3% as a preferred alternative asset.

Global markets impact (last 24 hours)

  • Equities: The S&P 500 (+1.5% to 7,365), Nasdaq 100 (+2.1% to 28,599), and Russell 2000 (+1.5% to 2,886) closed at record highs.DJIA (+1.2% to 49,910) lagged. In Europe, the DAX surged 2.1% to 24,918.
  • Fixed Income: The US 30-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% (to 4.98%) as investors locked in rates. The 10-year yield remains anchored at 4.4%.
  • FX: The US Dollar weakened broadly on the US-Iran peace news. The AUD/USD climbed to 0.7238, closing in on a 4-year high on upbeat risk appetite.
  • Commodities: WTI Crude slumped toward $90,50/bbl on the US-Iran developments. Spot Gold spiked 3.2% to $4,703/oz, its highest since late April.

Asia Pacific impact

  • Stock markets: An overnight 4.5% jump in the US SOX semiconductor index sets up a positive feedback loop back into key Asian stock markets. Nikkei 225 (+5.4% to 62,720 to hit a fresh all-time high), KOSPI (+0.2% to propel towards a new record high of 7,400), Hang Seng Index (+1.3% to 26,564), China A50 (+0.2% to 15,850 to hit a 52-month high), and STI (+0.3% to 4,944) at this time of writing.
  • Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperformed all regional peers following the rally seen in global stock markets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has managed to find a floor at around 157.30/157.55 per USD on fears of further intervention,
  • Economic Outlook: The region is expected to benefit significantly from declining energy import costs. If the Middle East peace deal is implemented, it will provide a significant economic boost for major oil importers such as Japan and South Korea.

Top 2 events to watch today

  1. US Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 205K, previous week: 189K) Impact: USD, US stock indices, Short-end US Treasuries
  2. Eurozone Retail Sales - 5.00 pm SGT: (consensus: -0.3% m/m, Feb: -0.2% m/m) Impact: EUR crosses, DAX
  3. Ongoing US-Iran Peace Memorandum Developments Impact: All asset classes

Chart of the day - USD/JPY further downside pressure below 157.30/157.55

Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor “Ascending Wedge” configuration on Wednesday, 6 May 2026. In addition, in today’s opening Asian session (Thursday, 7 May 2026), its hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish momentum condition below the 50 level.

These observations suggest the minor downtrend phase of the USD/JPY remains intact. Watch the 157.30/157.55 key short-term pivotal resistance for another potential down leg to expose the next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05 (also the key 200-day moving average) (see Fig 1).

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 157.55 negates the bearish tone for a rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 158.10 and 158.60 (the intersection of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).

Bitcoin Gains More Ground, Upside Pressure Continues To Build

Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin started a fresh increase above $78,000 and $80,000.
  • A bullish trend line is forming with support at $80,200 on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD.
  • Ethereum remained in a range below $2,400.
  • Gold is recovering losses and might revisit the $4,850 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price remained supported above $76,500 against the US Dollar. BTC formed a base and started a fresh increase above $78,500.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price settled above $78,800, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bulls even pumped the price above $80,000.

A high was formed at $82,799, and the price is now consolidating gains near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,898 swing low to the $72,799 high.

On the upside, the price now faces resistance near $81,800. The first key hurdle is $82,800. A close above $82,800 could send the price toward $83,500. Any more gains might call for a test of $85,000.

Immediate support sits at $80,500. The first key support could be $80,000. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $80,200. The main breakdown support could be near $78,850 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,898 swing low to the $72,799 high.

A downside break below $78,850 might start another decline. The next major support is $75,000, below which BTC could decline toward $72,000.

Looking at Ethereum, the price also gained bullish momentum above $2,300, but the bears remained active near $2,400.

Today’s Key Economic Releases

  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 205K, versus 189K previous.
  • Fed's Kashkari speech.
  • Fed's Hammack speech.

Macklem Warns Energy Shock Could Force Consecutive BoC Hikes

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a clear warning that the Bank of Canada is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the inflation risks created by the Middle East conflict. While policymakers are still willing to “look through” the first-round jump in gasoline prices, Macklem stressed that the BoC “will not let” higher energy costs evolve into broader, persistent inflation across the economy.

The most market-sensitive part of his remarks was the explicit opening of the door to renewed rate hikes. Macklem said that if oil prices continue rising and remain elevated, “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.” That marks one of the clearest acknowledgements yet from the BoC that the current energy shock could eventually force a renewed tightening cycle, even as the labor market remains soft and growth moderate.

At the same time, Macklem emphasized that policy flexibility remains critical because risks are moving in both directions. Additional US tariffs and weaker growth could still require further rate cuts, while persistent energy inflation could demand tighter policy instead. With uncertainty “unusually elevated,” the BoC’s core message was that monetary policy may need to be “nimble” as officials try to prevent the oil shock from becoming embedded in long-term inflation expectations.

Full remarks of BoC's Macklem here.

Fed’s Goolsbee: Iran War Is Inflationary, Not Yet Stagflationary

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Iran conflict is increasingly behaving as an inflationary shock rather than a stagflationary one, a distinction that carries important implications for monetary policy.

Speaking after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles, Goolsbee noted that while higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions are clearly pushing inflation risks higher, the economy has not yet shown the kind of simultaneous deterioration in employment and growth that would force the Fed into a difficult tradeoff between its inflation and labor market mandates.

“It has not yet been a stagflationary-direction shock,” Goolsbee said, emphasizing that the labor market remains relatively stable despite rising cost pressures. Instead, he described the current environment as “just an inflationary shock,” warning that the longer the conflict persists, the more concerning the inflation outlook becomes. The comments suggest the Fed still sees room to prioritize inflation containment for now, rather than pivoting toward growth support.

That distinction is critical for markets because a purely inflationary shock tends to reinforce the case for rates staying higher for longer, while a true stagflationary scenario would complicate the Fed’s policy path significantly. Goolsbee’s remarks indicate that, at least for now, he remains more concerned about persistent inflation pressures than about a sharp slowdown in economic activity.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why a Close Above $82,133 Is Needed to Resume the Bull Run

  • Bitcoin remains decidedly bullish, holding firm above the key $80,000 psychological support level.
  • The price is in a corrective phase after peaking near $82,800 and is currently testing short-term support levels.
  • A close above $82,133 is needed to immediately resume bullish momentum toward the $85,000 objective.

Bitcoin continues its impressive ascent, hitting fresh highs near the 82800 mark before finding some temporary friction. The overall structure across multiple timeframes remains decidedly bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, supported by key moving averages.

H4 Chart: The Macro View

The 4-hour chart highlights a strong breakout above the significant psychological level of 80000. This level, which previously acted as a hurdle, has now transitioned into a foundational support zone.

The price is currently trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), confirming the strength of the medium-term trend.

While the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a "Bear" divergence tag near the recent peak, this often signals a period of consolidation or a shallow pullback rather than a full reversal in such a strong trending market.

The next major objective for bulls on this timeframe remains the 85000 handle.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, May 6, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

H1 Chart: Assessing the Pullback

Dropping down to the 1-hour chart, we see the recent price action in more detail. After peaking just shy of 83000, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. It is currently testing the 50-MA (blue line) near 81000.

The 82133 level (purple line) has switched to immediate resistance.

For the bullish momentum to resume immediately, we would want to see an hourly candle close back above 82133. Failure to do so might see a deeper retest of the 80000 breakout point, which aligns closely with the ascending trendline support.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, May 6, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

M30 Chart: Intraday Dynamics and Trade Opportunities

The 30-minute chart reveals a more aggressive corrective slope. The price has pierced below the 50-MA and is currently hovering around the 81400 area.

Potential Trade Opportunities:

The Trendline Retest (Long): Aggressive buyers may look for long entries if the price touches the primary ascending trendline (currently intersecting near 80,000 - 80400). A bullish reversal candle (like a hammer or engulfing pattern) at this junction would offer a high-probability entry with a stop-loss potentially just below the trendline.

The Breakout Re-entry (Long): For more conservative traders, a break and hold back above the 82133 level would signal that the minor correction is over. A long position on a successful retest of 82133 targets the 82800 recent high and 84000 beyond.

Short-term Scalp (Short): Only for the nimble, a sustained move below the 50-MA on the M30 could open a path for a quick scalp toward the 100-MA (yellow line) near 80960.

However, shorting into such a strong uptrend carries significant risk.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance: 82133, 82800, 85000.
  • Support: 80960 (100-MA M30), 80000 (Psychological/Trendline), 78197.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) M30 Chart, May 6, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin remains in a "buy the dip" environment. While the RSI indicates that the move was slightly overextended, the technical structure is intact as long as price remains above the 80000 psychological floor

Copper Attempts to Break Its Mid-April $6.10 Spike – On the Way to New ATH? XCU/USD Outlook

  • Copper and other metals are exploding higher from the elevated hopes of a conflict resolution
  • Profiting from the tumble in the US Dollar, the Metal is retesting its early April highs and looks to break higher
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis

After a rough end of April, Copper and other metals are surging today, driven by growing optimism for a clear diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East.

Since early 2025 and particularly since the start of the War, the metals market is showing an unusual pattern, moving in the opposite direction of the US Dollar. In the past, metals have often served as a defensive alternative when stocks are volatile.

But since this conflict began, metals and stocks have mostly moved together, reacting strongly to changes in geopolitical tension and relief.

Metals Performance in 2026 and Dollar Index Correlation – Source: TradingView

Copper has been making headlines, outperforming gold at the start of the year.

Copper is benefiting from today’s sharp drop in the US Dollar. It is now retesting its early April highs and appears ready to move even higher. But, in addition to short-term correlation factors, copper is getting strong support from major long-term trends.

The growth of AI infrastructure and heavy capital spending by large tech companies are driving demand for copper, which is needed for advanced data center circuits and cooling systems.

On top of that, large investments are planned to upgrade and modernize North America’s electrical grid. All of this is fueling strong interest in copper.

Metals Performance (15:03) – Source: TradingView. May 6, 2026

Overall, while copper is traditionally known as a highly cyclical industrial metal, standard cyclicality has simply not been dictating its recent price action.

On the contrary, these massive swings have been almost entirely explained by movements in the US Dollar. Luckily for copper bulls, the greenback is aggressively falling off the table in today's session, removing the primary overhead headwind.

Riding this perfect storm of fundamental demand and currency weakness, prices are now actively trying to push decisively beyond the massive $6.10 high established in April.

We’ll explore a few scenarios for upcoming action in an in-depth technical analysis of Copper (XCU/USD) as the metal attempts to break resistance.

Copper (XCU/USD) Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Daily Chart

Copper (XCU/USD) Daily Chart. May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

After its past month's 17% rise to $6.10, Copper could not resist the rough patch in the metals Market and pulled back close to 6% right back to its 50-Day moving average.

As seen throughout the 2025 bull trend, the asset class moves particularly strongly when reaching and breaching its Daily MAs, so this is a trend to keep your eyes on as traders.

The ongoing bounce is impressive as it erased more than two-weeks of progressive correction in two sessions, and the bull candles are now testing the key $6.10 resistance; above this, there isn't much that can stall the move back to the all-time highs ($6.50).

4H Chart and Technical Levels

Copper (XCU/USD) 4H Chart. May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The intraday action is currently forming a tight bull channel to higher levels, and with the RSI reaching overbought levels, the ongoing rally could somewhat stall.

Still, higher timeframe momentum hasn't been so extreme yet, so this could see small consolidation which could then lead to continued upside, with the next stop at $6.20.

As mentioned in the introduction, Metals are moving on peace prospects, hence a clean deal will be awaited to confirm a continued path to all-time highs – Make sure to track the latest narratives around the peace process.

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

  • $6.10 Early Jan 2026 and April Record (testing the upper bound)
  • Psychological Resistance $6.20 to $6.25
  • Current ATH Resistance $6.40 to $6.50
  • $6.52 Current Record
  • Potential Resistance $6.90 to $7.00

Support Levels:

  • 4H 200-period MA / 50-day MA $5.76
  • Momentum Pivot $5.70 to $5.90 Bullish above, Bearish Below recent bounce
  • Minor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40 to $5.50
  • War lows $5.18
  • 200-Day MA $5.24
  • Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00

Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!

DXY: Dollar Probes Through Key supports Again as Fresh Optimism Fades Safe Haven Demand

The dollar came under increased pressure on Wednesday after fresh wave of optimism about a possible end of US-Iran war deflated safe-haven demand.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of Greenback against its six major peers, hit three-week low, on renewed probe through the trendline support (currently at $97.85), after several recent attacks failed to register clear break of the trendline.

Support is reinforced by the base of thick daily cloud and 50% retracement of $95.35/$100.48 rally) that add to its significance.

Sustained break lower is needed to confirm bearish signal and open way for continuation of the downtrend from $100.48 (2026 high, posted on Mar 31) and expose next target at $97.31 (Fibo 61.8%).

Caution on potential repeated failure at trendline support, though near-term focus is expected to remain at the downside, as daily studies are in bearish configuration (reinforced by the latest 20/200DMA and 20/100 DMA bear-crosses and falling 14-d momentum entering negative territory).

Also keep focus on dynamics of peace talks in the Middle East, as geopolitics remain one of key dollar drivers nowadays.

Res: 97.90; 98.20; 98.43; 98.52
Sup: 97.50; 97.31; 97.00; 96.56

Platinum Wave Analysis

Platinum: ⬆️ Buy

  • Platinum reversed from support zone
  • Likely to rise to resistance level 2140.00

Platinum recently reversed up from the support zone between the pivotal support level 1800.00 (former multi-month low from February), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.

The upward reversal from this support level 1800.00 started the active minor correction ii.

Given the overriding daily uptrend, Platinum can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 2140.00. (top of the previous correction B).