Sample Category Title

It’s a busy week ahead for Canadian economic releases, highlighted by the February inflation report on Monday and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Canada’s national balance sheet accounts will also be released on Monday, providing an updated snapshot of household and financial sector health.

The BoC will be watching the Consumer Price Index report closely ahead of its policy decision, but we expect a tick lower in headline CPI growth to 2% (right at the 2% inflation target) in February won’t sway the central bank to move from the sidelines.

Recent inflation readings have been distorted higher by the GST/HST tax holiday a year ago, which temporarily lowered price levels, and the removal of the consumer carbon tax from energy prices last April that continues to lower year-over-year energy prices.

The BoC’s “core” median and trim measures control for tax changes, and have also been drifting lower to 2.5% on average in January, but driven largely by moderation in shelter price growth. Core services excluding shelter growth was still above 3% in January by our count.

Pockets of price growth remain elevated, particularly groceries still up almost 5% from a year ago in January. The drag from lower energy prices in recent months will reverse as oil prices spike higher due to conflict in the Middle East.

Recent labour market data shows mixed signals with some near-term softness but underlying conditions that support gradual improvement ahead. Employment fell 84,000 in February, adding to January’s 25,000 decline, with full-time positions bearing the brunt of losses. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February from 6.5% in January, though it remains below the Q4/25 average of 6.8% and well below the recent peak of 7.1% in September.

As a result, we do not expect the BoC to make changes to the policy rate at Wednesday’s meeting. Our base case forecast also assumes the policy rate remains unchanged for the remainder of 2026 as inflation continues to trend lower toward target.

Data summary:

We expect the national balance sheet account for Q4 2025 to show household net worth continued upward, bolstered by ongoing equity market gains, albeit at a more moderate pace than robust Q3. The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced 5.6% during the period, following an 11.8% surge in the previous three months. Nevertheless, a portion of these gains was likely offset by persistent declines in property values with the CREA Home Price Index falling 2.2%, maintaining deterioration similar to earlier periods. The debt service ratio probably decreased in Q4, driven by rising personal disposable income and reduced household non-mortgage borrowing.

Attention will also be on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed held rates steady earlier this year, and recent U.S. data suggests labour market conditions continue to stabilize. We expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2026.

Next Friday, we’ll get Canadian January retail sales, providing some indications of spending momentum in early 2026. Statistics Canada’s advance retail indicator released a month ago indicated sales increased 1.5% in January, reversing the decline in the prior month.

The dollar keeps firm tone and remains on track to complete the second week of steep rally, acting as a major safe-haven asset in the situation of risk aversion.

Higher oil prices on escalating war in the Middle East threat of fresh rise of inflation that also underpins the greenback, as the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates, as initially expected, but may opt for holding rates or fresh policy tightening.

Friday’s rally (index was up nearly 0.7% until mid-US session) broke through key barriers in $100 zone (former top at $99.64 / psychological), as well as the upper boundary of bull-channel from $95.35 ($100.23) and cracked 2025 peak at $100.32, after bulls penetrated falling and thick weekly Ichimoku cloud (base lays at $99.28).

Close above these levels to validate fresh signal of reversal and open way for stronger recovery of larger $110.00/$95.35 downtrend, with Fibo 38.2% retracement ($100.94) marking next significant barrier.

Bullish daily studies (10/100DMA and 20/200DMA bull crosses / strong positive momentum) contribute to supportive fundamental components, though overbought conditions should be anticipated.

Broken $100 level reverts to immediate support, with deeper dips to find firm ground at $99.60/30 zone and keep larger bulls in play.

Res: 100.50; 100.94; 101.25; 101.71
Sup: 100.00; 99.60; 99.30; 99.09

Monday, Mar 16, 2026

Tuesday, Mar 17, 2026

Wednesday, Mar 18, 2026

Thursday, Mar 19, 2026

Friday, Mar 20, 2026

Market focus remains on oil as the week kicked off with prices surging to USD120 per barrel. They declined quickly again but remain elevated around USD100. The IEA's announcement of a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves did little to calm markets, probably because the decision was anticipated and it lacks details on the pace and breakdown of reserve sales. This accounts for around 20 days of supplies from the Strait of Hormuz and likely more since Saudi Arabia and UAE could reroute some supplies.

The IEA expects world output to fall by 8mn b/d in March, as it reports "The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market". The tense situation has continued to weigh on bond markets and energy importers' currencies such as euro and yen.

Governments are looking into different measures to ease the energy hit on businesses and consumers. Croatia has already introduced a time limited cap on motor fuel and Austria a cap on power prices. Bigger countries such as France and Italy are monitoring petrol pump prices for excess profits but have refrained from announcing price caps so far. The EU is also looking into measures according to the Commission President. It could lead to larger deficits and increased debt issuance.

US February CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.4% in line with expectations, as energy prices rebounded already ahead of the war in the Middle East. Looking ahead, the war in the Middle East will obviously continue to draw heavy attention from markets. One fix point worth keeping an eye on will be US strategic oil reserves. Elsewhere, trade delegations from US and China will meet for a new round of trade talks. On the data front, the big batch of Chinese data covering two months will be of particular interest. We expect a slight pick-up in retail sales from a low level. Data on the weak housing market will also be in focus.

Next week is packed with central bank meetings. While we expect all the major central banks on hold for now due to the uncertainty on energy markets, it will be very interesting to hear whether central banks will lean towards cutting or hiking rates, if supply disruptions trigger longer lasting energy scarcity. Markets certainly lean towards hikes, and we acknowledge the risk some central banks will be fighting the last war and risk hiking rates too early.

We expect the ECB to signal readiness to act to upward price pressures but at the same time acknowledge heightened uncertainty and that it is too early to draw firm conclusions. The Bank of England is set to pause its cutting cycle as the energy shock blurs the UK's disinflationary path. The Fed is in a good position to wait and see how the war in the Middle East plays out and is not in a hurry to provide strong forward guidance about its next policy changes. We expect Powell to strike a cautious tone at the press conference.

Japan is the outlier being on a hiking cycle and while real wage growth turning positive for the first time in over a year in January supports hiking further, surging energy prices is threatening to undermine the recent purchasing power recovery.

Full report in PDF. 

• We expect the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%. Through the past couple of weeks, this has also been priced in by markets and become consensus.
• The war in the Middle East implies huge uncertainty on the outlook from here, but for now our base case remains a cut in April and another one in November.
• We will look closely at MPC members’ views on what the right policy response is, if energy prices remain elevated.
• We see risk of the significant repricing of the BoE to revert, opening up for a move higher in EUR/GBP.

At the February meeting, the BoE took a dovish turn as new analysis showed wagesetting is not the threat to inflationary pressures, the BoE previously thought it was and only a slim majority voted to keep rates unchanged.

Data released since February have been mixed with some key dovish details. PMI data have suggested the economy has picked up speed in Q1. However, January GDP data disappointed as m/m growth hit 0. January inflation was close to expectations, but wage growth is declining and unemployment has edged higher. However, the war in the Middle East has turned market pricing upside down. Ahead of the war, two rate cuts were priced in by investors this year. At the time of writing, markets are leaning towards one hike.

Given the very uncertain situation in energy markets, the most likely outcome is probably that the more centrist leaning doves, Breeden and Ramsden, flip their votes to hold for now. It will be interesting to see the different MPC members’ views on what the right policy response is, if energy prices remain elevated. Worth noticing, 5/9 MPC members are new compared to the start of the previous hiking cycle in early 2022, when the BoE was clearly behind the curve. A majority of the MPC is then likely not to make the mistake of “fighting the previous war” and hiking rates too early. Thursday, ahead of the rate decision, a fresh jobs report will be published. While it is not likely to question the decision on Thursday, it will be interesting to see if the recent trends in the labour market continue.

BoE call. We stick to our expectation of an April rate cut followed by a final one in November, leaving the Bank Rate at 3.25%. We also appreciate that the risk is, the final path of the cutting cycle will drag out.

Market reaction. EUR/GBP has gradually edged lower following the escalations in the Middle East. While the UK is still a net-energy importer akin to the euro area, the energy mix in the UK slightly favours a relatively stronger GBP vs EUR. This poses a risk to our call of a weaker GBP the coming year combined with GBP performing in a USD positive environment. However, we highlight that the UK economy remains fragile and that we see scope for the significant repricing of the BoE to revert in a larger extent than for the ECB, opening up for a move higher in EUR/GBP.

• We expect the ECB to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% on Thursday 19 March in line with consensus and market pricing. All focus is on signals.
• Lagarde to communicate a full commitment to price stability and readiness to act to upward price pressures but at the same acknowledge highted uncertainty and that it is too early to draw firm conclusions.
• The baseline staff projections will not incorporate higher commodity prices so attention will be on the scenarios, where we expect the ECB to communicate upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
• Our baseline is unchanged ECB rates in 2026 and 2027 but with upside risk.

We expect the ECB to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% on Thursday 19 March in line with market pricing and consensus. The ECB is faced with a drastically changed economic outlook due to the war in Iran. Inflation expectations have risen sharply with markets now expecting inflation to average 2.9% y/y for the rest of the year. This has led to significant repricing of the ECB with a total of 45bp worth of hikes priced in by YE 2026 with the first full 25bp hike in September. The communication from Governing Council members the past week has shown a divergence in views. ECB’s Kazimir gave a string of hawkish comments noting that "a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than many people think" and Schnabel called for “vigilance”. “Vigilance” was in the period from 2005 to 2011 a synonym for a hawkish stance that led to a subsequent policy rate hike. More dovish members have signalled a wait and see approach with Guindos saying, "we need to keep a cool head and not overreact," and Cipollone "it's far too early to have a full assessment". We expect Lagarde to strike a balance between the camps by stating that ECB is fully commitment to price stability and ready to act to upward price pressures, but at the same acknowledge highted uncertainty and that it is too early to draw firm conclusions.

The meeting will include a new set of staff projections. Because the cut-off date for the technical assumptions on energy prices was prior to the war in Iran, the baseline scenario will not fully reflect the rise in energy prices and is therefore of smaller interest. Attention will instead focus on the published alternative scenarios that incorporate higher commodity price assumptions. The upside energy price scenario will provide important insight into how the ECB staff views higher energy prices’ impact on the euro area economy, thereby offering a signal for the rate path. We pay special attention to mentioning of medium-term inflation risks since market-based measures have risen above 2% (1y1y inflation at 2.20%, 2y2y at 2.13%, and 5y5y at 2.20%). If Lagarde explicitly mentions that risks to medium-term inflation have shifted upwards, we would interpret this as a clear hawkish signal.

In December 2023 ECB staff modelled a similar Middle East war scenario with a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a lift of the oil price to USD 130/bbl and natural gas at EUR 83/Mwh. This led to 0.85pp higher euro area HICP inflation in the first year and 0.6pp lower GDP growth compared to the baseline. We therefore expect ECB to highlight that the risk assessment on inflation is tilted to the upside while the growth risks are tilted to the downside.

Our baseline is unchanged ECB rates but with a clear upside risk

In our base case we expect the rising energy prices to have a temporary effect on the price level, but we expect only small changes to medium-term inflation due to limited pass-through to core. We note that in the past six months the ECB has been focused on core inflation amid headline being projected below 2% in 2026/27. As the 2025 strategy review also acknowledged, the flexibility in the medium-term inflation target should allow larger short-term deviations due to more frequent supply shocks. We therefore expect the ECB to “look through” the Iran shock as growth is also negatively affected, and subsequently we do not expect the ECB to raise policy rates in 2026 nor 2027. However, the scars from the latest inflation crisis have likely lowered the threshold for when the ECB will act to upward price pressures even though the textbook reaction would be to “look through” the shock. Central banks tend to fight their last wars (too hawkish ahead of GFC in 2008, too dovish ahead of 2022 inflation crisis). Combined with energy prices and risks of second round effects, this constitutes an upside risk to our ECB call even though the economic situation is significantly different compared to 2021/2022.

• Geopolitics and oil price dominate market sentiment
• Equity weakness could persist as cryptos unexpectedly benefit
• Dollar strength could linger if Middle East conflict escalates; could gold follow suit?
• Seven central banks meet next week; the RBA is closest to a rate hike
• Fed and ECB to remain cautious; SNB could surprise with negative rates

Middle East conflict remains in the driver’s seat

More than ten days after the start of the US-Israel-Iran hostilities, geopolitics remain the main market driving force. Investors are almost entirely focused on the duration of the current conflict and the damage to the real economy.

Notably, the second week of the conflict has revealed cracks in the US-Israel alliance. The Israeli side appears determined to see the conflict through to the end, aiming for regime change in Iran, and pursuing a ground offensive in Lebanon, while the US officials are already thinking ahead to the impact on midterm elections.

There have been conflicting messages from US President Trump and government officials regarding how close to “victory” the alliance currently is, with a period of four to five weeks being touted as the most likely duration of hostilities. Additionally, there are concerns within Republican ranks that rising petrol prices, and a plunging stock market could dent the party’s chances of maintaining a majority in Congress in November.

Meanwhile, Trump has put tariffs in the spotlight once again. The US administration has opened a Section 301 investigation into manufacturing practices of China, the EU, Mexico, Japan and another 12 major trading partners, aiming to replace the tariffs deemed illegal by the US Supreme Court. The universal 15% tariffs imposed after the Court’s decision can only last six months and Trump’s team wants to be ready for the next step.

Oil remains the barometer for risk appetite

Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, severely reducing the flow of oil and gas, while attacking oil installations in fellow Arab countries in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Iranian oil depots. The newly elected spiritual leader quickly confirmed his hardline credentials, opening the door to a protracted conflict.

As long as passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains risky, with only a handful of ships making the round trip since the start of the conflict, oil prices will remain elevated, with the occasional jump higher when hostilities and the rhetoric intensify.

Should there be light at the end of the tunnel with a possible ceasefire – which seems extremely unlikely at this stage – oil might not return to previous low levels, as the current developments have highlighted how easy it is for Iran to disrupt oil and gas supply flows should it wish to do so again.

Cryptos outperform equities since the start of the conflict

Equity indices have been under only modest pressure so far this week. One could say that investors are potentially too optimistic about the US’s ability to secure the Strait of Hormuz, restoring the supply of oil. Surprisingly, cryptocurrencies have been faring better than equities since the start of the Middle East conflict. Bitcoin is up 9.3% since February 27, while the S&P 500 index is down 3% in the same period.

Another risk-off reaction is clearly on the cards upon a genuine escalation of hostilities. That could take the form of Iran targeting non-military targets, hitting the US navy, an Israeli attempt to remove the newly elected supreme leader, and/or preparing a ground offensive against Iranian nuclear installations.

Such a series of events might finally boost demand for safe haven assets, most of which have been disappointing so far. Gold has failed to rally above $5,200, ignoring data suggesting that the People’s Bank of China remains a steady driving force of demand for gold, while the yen has been a victim of the dollar’s exceptional performance.

Central bank meeting in the spotlight

Amidst ballooning concerns for a repeat of the post-COVID inflation surge choking most economies, seven central banks will hold their respective policy meetings next week. Some are expected to alter rates, others to prove less exciting than anticipated, but all have been experiencing sharp adjustments in market rate expectations.

Rate hikes from the RBA and the BoJ next week?

Both the RBA (Tuesday, 03:30 GMT) and the BoJ (Thursday, 03:30 GMT) are seen closer to announcing a rate hike next week compared to the rest of the group.

The RBA hiked in January and has been hawkish since then, with RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warning about “an oil price shock posing upside risks to inflation”, and hence further supporting rate hike expectations. The aussie has been resisting the dollar’s strength and a rate hike announcement could push this pair towards the mid-2022 highs.

BoJ rate hike expectations have been stable throughout this period, as the Middle East developments have added another layer of complexity to the BoJ. However, a successful Shunto round, with sizeable wage increases agreed, should unlock the April rate move, provided the US-Israel-Iran conflict does not escalate further. This means that a likely hawkish tilt on Thursday might put a temporary stop to the recent rally in dollar/yen, though Japanese authorities are on high alert to intervene if the pair climbs towards 160, even ahead of the BoJ meeting.

Could the SNB, the BoE or the BoC surprise on Thursday?

The first SNB meeting of 2026 comes at a crucial time. The Swiss franc is already up 2.8% this year against the euro, with decent gains versus both the dollar and the pound. The appreciation has not been consistent throughout this year, with the latest geopolitical developments adding to demand for the franc.

The SNB has allegedly already intervened to stem the franc rally, but this has proven ineffective. A dovish tilt, or a return to negative rates on Thursday (08:30 GMT) might prove insufficient to change franc’s fate, leaving aggressive intervention as the only option.

Ahead of the Middle East conflict, the 5-4 vote at the February meeting, dovish rhetoric and weakening data had beefed up the chances of a March BoE rate cut to 80%. This has completely reversed, with the market pricing out rate cuts for 2026. The pound has benefited from this reversal, significantly outperforming the euro, but this move might look exaggerated given the BoE’s dovish pedigree. The probable lack of a hawkish message on Thursday (12:00 GMT) could open the way to a reversal of this pound rally.

Similarly, Bank of Canada officials will probably be torn between the positive impact from the increased oil prices and weakening domestic economy, which is once again targeted by US tariffs. The loonie has been surprisingly resisting the dollar strength, but that might change on Wednesday as a balanced BoC rhetoric might upset expectations of a gradual tightening later in the year.

Could the Fed and the ECB meetings prove less exciting?

The latest developments have completely altered the rate outlook for the two heavyweights. The ECB – being more price conscious compared to the Fed at this juncture – is seen tightening its monetary policy stance by 44bps in 2026, up from just 4bps at the start of the year. This repricing looks exaggerated and has offered little assistance to the euro, which is down 2.6% this month against the dollar, the strongest monthly drop since November 2024.

Few surprises are expected on Thursday (13:15 GMT), as President Lagarde is poised to repeatedly highlight and emphasize the ECB’s readiness to quelch any likely prices increased from becoming entrenched, but will most likely stay short of signalling a hawkish shift.

Finally, the dollar has been outperforming its main counterparts so far in 2026, with euro/dollar dropping by around five big figures below its late January peak of 1.2081 and getting close to the lower boundary of the recent rectangle. Wednesday’s meeting (18:00 GMT) will be the penultimate one for Chair Powell, and hence a balanced and cautious tone is expected to dominate. That said, all eyes will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot as expectations for two rate cuts have diminished following the current oil price surge.

Cryptocurrencies may have finally seen their dawn after a catastrophic performance throughout the past 6 months.

October 2025 saw new all-time highs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and a few others, while the rest of the altcoin Market remained muted.

However, having woken towards their weak tops right ahead of a winter of sentiment and economic data, Cryptocurrencies saw their own seasonal rejection. That came after a historic year-long run in Bitcoin that took it above $100,000 for the first time.

The digital asset markets have been subject to considerable mockery, having performed the least well among the major asset classes in 2025. Still, Markets are playing the long-term game, and rotation flows can shift the narrative quickly. And that would also undermine their stellar runs since 2024.

Oil is retracing from its previous session's $96 highs after a 10% run. That spike had a significant impact on the entire Market, as it scared investors by the prospect of higher inflation due to rising energy prices, which in turn affected production costs – but Cryptos seem to be living at their own pace.

Since the conflict, while Global Stock Markets have struggled, Bitcoin and Ethereum formed a double bottom and remained relatively protected from the general deleveraging wave seen elsewhere.

The 20 Millionth Bitcoin was mined on March 10 – and most of us (most probably) won't be there to see the last Bitcoin mined – Supply peaks at 21 Million – sometime in about 120 years.

Bitcoin halving schedule towards 2050 – Source: CoinGecko

For those who didn't know, Bitcoin's halving rate halves the reward per mined block as more supply is being mined. This creates a sense of scarcity over time, and it has already had its greatest effect

Ethereum is also seeing its largest on-chain activity, now above its 2021 peak. This hasn't yet fully shown up in Crypto prices, as general sentiment remains relatively weak, but it is certainly helping the case at least withstand further selling pressure.

Let's dive right into the intraday Charts with technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Current Session in Cryptos – March 13, 2026 (9:10). Source: FInviz

Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, March 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is now evolving within a strong intermediate Bull channel, having also broken its 4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages.

This shouts a persistent rebound in the Crypto, particularly after the recent double bottom, currently breaking $73,000.

• On the short-run, bulls will want to break the early March $74,077 highs and close above
  • The top of the intermediate Channel is at $78,000
• On the longer run, it will be interesting to see what happens at $82,000, when Bitcoin tests the upper bound of its October descending channel – Breaking above could relaunch a Bull-trend.

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)
• $60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)
• $59,935 February Lows
• $52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)
• $40,000 Mid-2024 breakout support

Resistance Levels:

• March 4 Highs $74,077 (Bulls need to break!)
• $75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)
• $80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (50-Day MA)
• $90,000 to $95,000 Pivotal Resistance
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, March 13, 2026– Source: TradingView

Ethereum is also bouncing in a more progressive upward channel since its end-February double bottom.

Similarly as BTC, bulls will want to mark a clean break above $2,200 (and session close optimally) to relaunch the Bull-momentum even further.

• Above $2,300, the short-term will be bullish for Ethereum.
• The longer-run bounce will be confirmed only above $2,600.
• Watch out for some slightly overbought RSI conditions and keep a close eye on overall Market sentiment (and Oil prices)

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• 4H 200 MA $2,118
• Channel lows $2,000
• $1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)
• $1,744 February 6 lows
• $1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels:

• March 4 Highs $2,201 (testing)
• $2,100 to $2,300 June War support now Key Pivot
• $2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)
• $3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1488; (P) 1.1533; (R1) 1.1556; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside as fall from 1.2081 is in progress. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next. Overall, near term outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.1666 resistance holds, in case of another recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.2081 on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.1500) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. That would also raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective bounce too. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3392; (P) 1.3438; (R1) 1.3463; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the downside with breach of 1.3252 support. Fall from 1.3867 is resuming, and should target 1.3008 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3482 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place from 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least corrective the whole rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or under further development.