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US private sector employment growth accelerated in April, with ADP payrolls rising 109k, well above expectations of 79k and significantly stronger than March’s 61k gain.

Hiring was led by the service sector, which added 94k jobs, while goods-producing industries contributed 15k. By establishment size, small businesses added 65k jobs and large firms contributed 42k, while medium-sized companies showed only modest growth with a 2k increase.

According to ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson, large firms benefited from stronger resource flexibility, while smaller firms remained nimble in a more complex economic environment.

Despite stronger hiring, wage pressures continued to moderate gradually. Pay growth for job-stayers slowed from 4.5% to 4.4%, while annual pay gains for job-changers held steady at 6.6%.

Gold’s rebound is suddenly turning into something much bigger. After defending the 4,500 psychological level earlier this week, the metal has surged sharply as markets aggressively sell Dollar on signs that the US and Iran may be moving toward a formal agreement to end the war.

The first catalyst came when President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom,” signaling that Washington was prioritizing diplomacy over military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. Momentum then accelerated dramatically after reports that the US and Iran are now close to a peace memorandum framework.

Technically, the decisive break above 4,660.21 resistance suggests that the pullback from 4,889.24 has already completed at 4,500.67. The rebound is now expected to extend toward a retest of 4,889.24.

Firm break there would not only resume the broader rally from 4,098.45, but also strengthen the case that the correction from 5,598.38 ended with the three-wave decline into 4,098.45.

Under that scenario, Gold could accelerate further to 61.8% projection of 4,098.45 to 4,889.45 from 4,500.67 at 4,989.37, and then 100% projection at 5,291.46.

Oil prices are falling sharply as markets aggressively unwind the geopolitical risk premium built on tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has now broken below the psychologically important $100 level, while WTI is sliding rapidly toward the $90 area, as diplomacy suddenly replaces disruption as the dominant market narrative.

The catalyst was an Axios report stating that the White House believes the US and Iran are close to finalizing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding designed to formally end the conflict and establish a framework for broader nuclear negotiations. Iranian officials later confirmed they were “evaluating” the US proposal, reinforcing hopes that negotiations are entering a decisive phase.

The development follows President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision earlier to pause “Project Freedom,” the US naval operation aimed at forcing open the Iranian-controlled Strait. That pause was initially interpreted as a tactical de-escalation move, but the Axios report now suggests it may have been part of a broader diplomatic pivot already underway behind the scenes.

Technically, immediate focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 86.09 to 115.30 at 97.25. Firm break there will pave the way back to 86.09 key structural support. Meanwhile, further fall would now be in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 106.89) holds, in case of recovery.

The broader implication is that markets are shifting rapidly from “war pricing” toward “normalization pricing.” That does not mean risks have disappeared completely. The proposed agreement is still preliminary, Iranian internal divisions remain a concern, and negotiations could still break down. But for now, traders appear increasingly convinced that the worst-case supply shock scenario is becoming less likely.

Eurozone producer price inflation accelerated sharply in March, with PPI rising 3.4% mom and 2.1% yoy, exceeding expectations of 3.3% mom and 1.8% yoy. The increase was driven overwhelmingly by energy costs, highlighting the growing inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict on the region’s industrial sector.

Energy producer prices surged 11.1% in Eurozone on the month, far outpacing other categories. Intermediate goods prices rose 0.7%, while capital goods, durable consumer goods, and non-durable consumer goods all recorded more moderate increases between 0.2% and 0.3%. The data suggest that while the immediate inflation shock is concentrated in energy, price pressures are gradually broadening across the production chain.

Across the broader European Union, PPI rose 3.2% mom and 2.0% yoy. Lithuania, Spain, and Italy recorded the strongest monthly increases, while Estonia and Finland saw sharp declines. The figures reinforce concerns that rising energy costs are feeding more directly into industrial inflation, increasing the risk that producer price pressures could continue passing through into consumer inflation in the coming months.

Full Eurozone PPI release here.

EUR/USD rose to 1.1717 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak. Pressure on the US dollar stems from growing expectations that the US will reach a negotiated settlement with Iran, reducing demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset.

US authorities have confirmed that the truce, now in effect for nearly a month, remains intact. Military operations have concluded, and the focus is shifting towards securing shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump also announced a pause in operations to facilitate the extraction of stranded vessels, providing room for negotiations.

Against this backdrop, oil prices have moderated, lowering inflation risks and reducing expectations of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Investor attention now turns to ADP private-sector employment data for April, which precedes Friday's key labour market report.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1742, currently extending down to 1.1729. A move lower below this level is likely, with potential downside towards 1.1690 and possibly 1.1636. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached the 1.1742 level and is now moving lower. A decline towards 1.1695 is likely, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1711 before a further move lower towards 1.1650 and potentially 1.1636. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The US dollar has lost ground amid rising geopolitical optimism, as markets increasingly price in the likelihood of a negotiated settlement between the US and Iran. With the truce holding for nearly a month and military operations paused, the focus has shifted to securing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while moderating oil prices have eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of Fed tightening. This has supported a rebound in EUR/USD after three days of declines. However, technical indicators suggest the broader bearish momentum for the pair may still be intact, with potential for further downside towards 1.1690 and 1.1636. The near-term direction will likely be influenced by US labour market data due later this week.

UK services activity rebounded in April, with PMI Services finalized at 52.7, up from March’s 11-month low of 50.5. PMI Composite also improved from 50.3 to 52.6, signaling a modest recovery in private sector growth after the slowdown seen in the previous month. The pickup suggests domestic activity has regained some momentum despite growing geopolitical and inflation-related headwinds.

However, the underlying picture remains mixed. According to S&P Global, new business growth stayed subdued as weaker export demand and deteriorating confidence weighed on order books. Survey respondents frequently cited the Middle East conflict and related supply chain disruptions as major concerns, with firms reporting softer business and consumer sentiment compared with earlier in the year.

At the same time, inflation pressures intensified sharply. Higher fuel and transportation costs pushed average cost burdens to their fastest pace since November 2022, while many companies introduced fuel surcharges for customers. As a result, prices charged inflation accelerated to its highest level in more than three years.

Full UK PMI services final release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by 0.75% over the past 24 hours, reaching $2.69 trillion. The top three performers are Zcash (+29%), Toncoin (+23%) and Filecoin (+16%). The underperformers are Ethereum (−0.4%), Algorand (−0.5%) and Basic Attention Token (−4.6%).

Bitcoin is approaching $81.5K, continuing its movement within an upward channel and hitting new highs since February. This positive momentum can easily be linked to the continued rise in stock indices, which is boosting risk appetite and bringing a more significant technical battle into view. The leading cryptocurrency is approaching its 200-day moving average (currently at $83.3K); a firm consolidation above this level would be a further sign of bullish dominance. We saw the first such sign – consolidation above the 50-day moving average – exactly one month ago. It is quite likely that, as Bitcoin approaches $83K, a short-term profit-taking phase awaits, allowing some of the gains to be taken.

The performance of altcoins clearly shows how BTC’s steady growth is encouraging increased risk-taking. First Toncoin, and today Zcash, have gained nearly 30% over the past 24 hours. The latter has been rising every day since 3 April, gaining 80% during this period; it was one of the first major cryptocurrencies to climb out of the slump at the end of January and reach highs last seen in November of last year. The key pivot zone in 2018 and 2025, near $800, looks well within reach in the coming days.

News Background

The total USDT market capitalisation has increased by $5.9 billion over the last 60 days, whereas prior to March, the market was losing around $2 billion monthly, notes analyst Darkfost. The inflow of capital into the crypto market is boosting asset values.

Morgan Stanley suggests that US banks may be able to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets in the future, despite current regulatory barriers. The bank recently launched a Bitcoin-based exchange-traded product (ETP). Later this year, Morgan Stanley will launch spot trading in cryptocurrency on its Wealth platform.

The international payment system Western Union has launched its own stablecoin, USDPT, on the Solana blockchain. Integration with SOL will allow the company to speed up settlements and move away from traditional interbank systems, which are prone to delays.

BitMine has increased its Ethereum reserves to $13 billion, purchasing over 100,000 ETH for the third week in a row. The company’s reserves have reached 5,180,131 ETH, or 4.29% of the Ethereum supply.

Toncoin (TON) jumped by 45% amid fee reductions and the reorganisation of TON. Pavel Durov announced that Telegram would take over management of the TON crypto project from the current operator, the TON Foundation. The entrepreneur promised to reduce fees on the TON network sixfold and turn the eponymous token into a mass-market product.

Eurozone private sector activity slipped back into contraction in April, with the Services PMI finalized at 47.6, down sharply from 50.2 in March and marking a 62-month low. Composite PMI fell from 50.7 to 48.8, its weakest reading in 17 months and the first contractionary print in nearly a year and a half. The data suggest the recovery momentum that had been building earlier this year has been derailed by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The downturn was concentrated in services, particularly consumer-facing sectors, as surging energy costs and disruptions to travel weighed heavily on demand. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, the ongoing conflict is delivering a “double whammy” to the sector through higher fuel prices and weaker mobility. Meanwhile, manufacturing has remained relatively resilient, though much of the support appears to be driven by precautionary stock building amid fears of future supply shortages and further price increases. At the same time, inflation pressures intensified significantly, with prices charged rising at the fastest pace in three years.

The weakness was broad-based across the region’s largest economies. Germany and France both recorded their sharpest declines in private sector activity in more than a year, while Spain saw its steepest downturn since August 2023. Only Italy and Ireland remained in expansion territory.

Williamson warned that the current slowdown could deepen further if the geopolitical crisis persists. He noted that rising ECB interest rate expectations are already weighing on real estate and financial services activity, while higher borrowing costs risk amplifying the broader decline in business confidence.

Full Eurozone PMI services final release here.

AUD/USD started a fresh increase above 0.7175 and 0.7200. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5950.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a steady increase above 0.7150 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7190 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5925 pivot zone.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5900 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.7100. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear 0.7100 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7190. There was a close above 0.7200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested 0.7245. A high was formed near 0.7245 and the pair remains elevated for more gains.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7135 swing low to the 0.7245 high at 0.7220. The next area of interest could be near 0.7190 and the 50% Fib retracement.

If there is a downside break below 0.7190, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.7175 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.7135.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.7245. The first major hurdle for the bulls might be 0.7260. An upside break above 0.7260 might send the pair further higher. The next stop is near 0.7320. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.7350.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.5855. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5875 barrier to start the recent rally against the US Dollar.

More importantly, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5900. The pair settled above 0.5925 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested 0.5945 and is currently showing signs of more gains. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now just above 70. On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.5945. The next major hurdle is near the 0.6000 pivot level.

A clear move above 0.6000 might even push the pair toward 0.6050. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6140 zone in the coming days.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5925 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5856 swing low to the 0.5945 high.

The first key zone for the bulls sits at 0.5900 and the 50% Fib retracement. The next important level is 0.5875 and or 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 0.5875, the pair might slide toward 0.5855. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5820.

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Bitcoin’s move above $80,000 may be the moment this rally changes character. What started as another rebound alongside surging tech stocks is now beginning to look more like a genuine momentum breakout—one that could pull institutional money back into the market aggressively.

The backdrop is almost ideal for crypto bulls. NASDAQ and S&P 500 are pushing to fresh record highs, risk appetite has returned sharply after the latest Middle East de-escalation, and investors are once again in “buy everything” mode. In that kind of environment, Bitcoin naturally becomes one of the beneficiaries.

But this rally is no longer relying on sentiment alone. The technical picture has improved meaningfully. Bitcoin has broken above the upper boundary of its near-term rising channel, signaling upward acceleration rather than just steady recovery. It has also pushed through 80,492 resistance, turning a key former ceiling into a potential launchpad for the next move higher.

That is why the $80K level matters so much. Major round numbers in Bitcoin are never just psychological—they often become structural. If Bitcoin can stabilize above this area, it changes how institutional investors and systematic strategies react to the market.

And that is where the ETF story becomes critical. A sustained break above $80K could trigger a fresh wave of momentum-driven ETF inflows. Higher prices attract more institutional buying, which then supports further gains, reinforcing the breakout and drawing in additional capital. It is the kind of feedback loop that can accelerate moves very quickly once it starts.

Markets may already be entering that phase. The breakout itself is improving confidence, and confidence is improving flows. That dynamic can become self-reinforcing, especially when broader macro conditions are supportive and liquidity is flowing back into risk assets.

None of this guarantees that Bitcoin has fully escaped its larger bearish structure. The rally from 59,866 could still eventually prove to be corrective relative to the collapse from the 126,289 record high. But the important point is that momentum is clearly expanding, not fading.

Technically, as long as 74,880 support holds, further upside remains favored. The next key objective sits at 38.2% retracement of 126,289 to 59,866 at 85,239. That level is likely to become the next major battleground between bulls and sellers.

How Bitcoin behaves there could define the entire medium-term outlook. A sharp rejection would support the argument that this is still just a powerful bear market rebound. But if Bitcoin can consolidate above $80K first and continue attracting ETF demand, traders may begin treating the current move as the early stage of a much larger reversal.

In other words, the real question is no longer whether Bitcoin can break $80K. It already has. The question now is whether the market is ready to treat $80K as the new floor—and build the next institutional buying wave on top of it.