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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9148; (P) 0.9160; (R1) 0.9171; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first. On the upside, above 0.9177 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back to 0.9264 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.9155 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8979 to 0.9264 at 0.9155) break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 61.8% retracement at 0.9088 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9268) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7146; (P) 0.7172; (R1) 0.7210; More...

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306. On the downside, below 0.7177 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7101 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3606; (P) 1.3618; (R1) 1.3633; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.3549. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3709 resistance holds. Below 1.3549 will resume the fall from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. However, firm break of 1.3709 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1674; (P) 1.1695; (R1) 1.1713; More….

EURUSD is staying in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.1642 support intact, rise from 1.1408 is expected to continue. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1537). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7813; (P) 0.7832; (R1) 0.7851; More….

USD/CHF falls sharply after rejection at 55 4H EMA but stays above 0.7774 support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.7923 resistance holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758 will extend the fall from 0.8041 to 100% projection at 0.7656. However, firm break of 0.7923 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.7603 medium term bottom is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. Rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.8042) will affirm this bearish case, and setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage. Though, sustained break of 55 W EMA will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.35; (P) 157.63; (R1) 158.18; More...

USD/JPY fell sharply after reject below 55 4H EMA (now at 158.06). The decline from 160.71 high is resuming and intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 160.71 to 155.48 from 157.92 at 154.68. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 152.69. That would be close to key 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.92 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.01) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

The market narrative has flipped again—and this time the reversal is dramatic. Just days after investors were positioning for a dangerous escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, traders are suddenly rushing back into risk assets as Washington signals that diplomacy may still be alive.

The turning point came when US President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom,” the US naval operation designed to escort shipping through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz. The mission had rapidly become the center of the latest confrontation, triggering missile incidents, naval clashes, and fears that the four-week-old ceasefire between the US and Iran was collapsing.

Instead of doubling down militarily, Trump announced that the operation would be suspended to facilitate a “complete and final agreement.” That single sentence completely changed market psychology. Within hours, the focus shifted away from imminent escalation and back toward the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

In many ways, markets had already started sniffing out the shift before the announcement became official. Wall Street’s overnight rally now looks less like optimism and more like early positioning. NASDAQ and S&P 500 both closed at record highs despite the geopolitical backdrop, suggesting some traders had already concluded that Washington was preparing to step back from direct confrontation.

The clues were there. During a briefing earlier in the day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth continued to speak firmly about protecting shipping routes and maintaining “Project Freedom.” But they also repeatedly stressed that the ceasefire remained intact despite recent military skirmishes. That subtle change in tone appears to have been enough for markets to start reversing defensive positioning.

The result was a sharp unwind of the “war trade.” Oil prices retreated as traders reduced the probability of an immediate supply shock through Hormuz. Safe-haven demand for Dollar evaporated quickly, pushing the greenback back under broad pressure.

Equity markets in Asia exploded higher after the pause for formally announced. South Korea’s KOSPI delivered one of the clearest signals, opening above 7093 before surging through 7300 intraday for a fresh record. The move reflected a rapid return of global risk appetite as investors once again embraced the idea that diplomacy—not escalation—would dominate the next phase.

But the most fascinating development is happening in Yen, for it is aggressively outperforming everything else. That has reignited speculation that Japan is intervening again—this time with near-perfect timing. By acting during the tail end of Golden Week holidays, when Tokyo liquidity is exceptionally thin, authorities can move the market far more efficiently. And by stepping in while Dollar is already falling globally, they effectively gain leverage from the market’s own momentum.

This is the essence of “maximum impact for minimum spend.” Japan may have realized that this brief window—falling Dollar and global yields, thin liquidity, and reduced geopolitical fear—offered the best opportunity to reset USD/JPY lower before speculative pressure toward 160 could rebuild. Rather than fighting the market, Tokyo may now be trying to guide it.

In the currency markets, Dollar is currently the worst performer for the day so far, followed by Loonie, and then Euro. Yen is leading, followed by Kiwi, and then Aussie. Swiss Franc and Sterling are positioning in the middle.

In Asia, Japan is in the last day of the Gold Week holidays. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.79%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.27%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.07%. Overnight, DOW rose 0.73%. S&P 500 rose 0.81%. NASDAQ rose 1.03%. 10-year yield fell -0.03 to 4.42.

NZ Labor Data Gives RBNZ Room to Stay on Hold

New Zealand’s labor market is stabilizing—but not overheating. Unemployment unexpectedly fell in Q1, yet wage growth remained subdued and participation slipped slightly. The combination eases pressure on the RBNZ to react aggressively to rising energy-driven inflation risks. Read More.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.35; (P) 157.63; (R1) 158.18; More...

USD/JPY fell sharply after reject below 55 4H EMA (now at 158.06). The decline from 160.71 high is resuming and intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 160.71 to 155.48 from 157.92 at 154.68. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 152.69. That would be close to key 152.25 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 160.71 at 152.74). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.92 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.01) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Key takeaways

• Risk-on rally driven by easing geopolitics: Cooling US–Iran tensions and lower oil prices have reduced risk premiums, lifting global equities to record highs—led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
• AI-led earnings momentum remains dominant: Strong corporate earnings revisions, particularly from mega-cap tech and semiconductor players, continue to fuel the equity rally, underpinned by the ongoing AI infrastructure investment cycle.
• Broad cross-asset impact supports risk sentiment: A softer US dollar, stabilizing yields, and resilient commodity demand (despite oil dipping) are reinforcing bullish conditions, with Asia-Pacific markets and AUD/USD benefiting from improved sentiment.
• Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration phase remains intact above 60,075 key short-term support. Next intermediate resistances at 62,044 and 62,794/63,138.

Top macro headlines

• US-Iran tensions cool: Diplomatic breakthroughs, highlighted by statements to pause Hormuz operations, indicate an Iran deal may be close. This has reduced the geopolitical risk premium.
• Oil prices retreat: Following the de-escalation of Middle East tensions, crude oil prices have dipped, providing relief to markets, though prices remain structurally supported above the $100 level.
• Record equity highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs, powered by extraordinary earnings momentum from mega-cap tech stocks and the easing of energy-related headwinds.
• Earnings momentum builds: US corporate earnings are being revised higher into 2026, with the 'Magnificent Seven' accounting for a significant portion of expected earnings growth.
• AUD recovered: The Australian dollar recovered from Tuesday, 5 May Asian low of 0.7136 ex-post RBA, supported by RBA’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and resilient risk appetite in equities. AUD/USD is firming up in today’s Asian session (+0.7%) to trade near its 52-week high at 0.7230.

Key macro themes

• AI hardware supercycle: The underlying driver of equity outperformance remains the massive capital expenditure surrounding AI infrastructure, particularly benefiting semiconductor supply chains in Taiwan and South Korea.
• Energy de-escalation: The dipping of oil prices is giving central banks some breathing room, potentially weakening the narrative that sticky energy inflation will force immediate rate hikes.
• Divergent regional recoveries: While the US enjoys robust growth led by tech, Europe faces a more sluggish environment, as evidenced by recent contractions in economic sentiment indicators.

Global markets impact (last 24 hours)

• Equities: Major US indices hit new milestones, with the S&P 500 surpassing 7,230 and the Dow nearing 50,000. Relief from lower oil prices broadened the rally beyond tech into cyclicals.
• Fixed Income: High-yield credit markets saw improved sentiment as risk appetite returned. Sovereign yields stabilized as the immediate threat of energy-driven inflation receded slightly.
• FX: Reducing geopolitical risk premiums put a ceiling on the US dollar strength resurgence. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD rebounded from key near-term supports at 1.1685 and 13490, respectively, after testing these levels on Tuesday, 5 May.
• Commodities: Oil prices dipped on cooling Middle East tensions and paused Hormuz operations, but WTI and Brent remain above $100/bbl. Industrial metals continue to see demand from the AI infrastructure buildout.

Asia Pacific impact

• Stock markets: Regional markets showed a mostly positive response to Wall Street's record close. The Nikkei 225 futures (Globex) climbed 1.1% to 61,285 (fresh all-time high), and the ASX 200 gained 1%. The China A50 rallied 1.2% to hit almost a 4-year high, while the Hang Seng Index recovered by 0.5%
• Currencies: The AUD/USD remains in a near-term bullish trend as it rose to a new 52-week high of 0.7234, holding above its 20-day moving average at 0.71550.
• Economic outlook: Markets linked heavily to the global semiconductor supply chain (like South Korea and Taiwan) remain the strongest performers in the region, absorbing capital flows driven by the AI boom.

Top 4 events to watch today

1. Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI (final) - 4.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR crosses, DAX
2. UK S&P S&P Global Services PMI (final) - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
3. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - 8.15 pm SGT: A prelude to this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (consensus: +99K, Mar: +62K) Impact: USD, S&P 500, US Treasuries
4. US EIA Crude Oil Inventories - 10:30 pm SGT Impact: WTI/Brent Crude

Chart of the day - Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration phase intact

Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 6 May 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) surged to a fresh all-time high of 61,405 at this time of writing.

Its short-term uptrend phase remains intact, supported by price actions that continue to oscillate within an ascending channel since the March 30, 2026, low, and the hourly RSI momentum indicator is in an overbought region (above the 70 level) without any bearish divergence conditions.

Watch the 60,075 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 62,044 and 62,794/63,138 (see Fig. 1).

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 60,075 would negate the bullish tone, leading to a corrective slide and exposing the next intermediate support at 59,050/58,545 (also the 50-day moving average).

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a fresh increase from the 1.3450 support zone.
• A rising channel is forming with resistance at 1.3660 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD could regain traction if it clears the 1.1750 resistance.
• USD/JPY is recovering and might climb toward the 159.20 zone.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound remained supported above 1.3450 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD formed a base and started a fresh increase above 1.3500.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settles above the 1.3520 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The recent swing low was formed at 1.3510, and the pair is now trading above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3657 swing high to the 1.3510 low.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance at 1.3595. The first major resistance sits at 1.3600 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3657 swing high to the 1.3510 low.

The main resistance could be 1.3650. A close above 1.3650 could open doors for gains above 1.3680. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3800.

Immediate support is seen near 1.3520. The next support could be 1.3500. A close below 1.3500 might push the pair toward 1.3450. Any more losses could initiate a fresh move to 1.3400 in the coming days.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is attempting a fresh increase, and a close above 1.1750 could trigger steady gains.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• UK Services PMI for April 2026 – Forecast 52.0, versus 52.0 previous.
• US ADP Employment Change for April 2026 - Forecast 99K, versus 62K previous.

New Zealand’s labor market showed tentative signs of stabilization in the first quarter, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling from 5.4% to 5.3%, below expectations for no change. Employment rose 0.2% qoq, slightly under the expected 0.3% gain, marking modest improvement.

However, the decline in unemployment was not entirely driven by stronger hiring. The labor force participation rate edged down from 70.5% to 70.4%, while the employment rate held steady at 66.7%. This suggests that part of the fall in unemployment reflected weaker labor force participation rather than a significant acceleration in job creation.

For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the key takeaway was steady growth in wages. Private sector wage growth, measured by the Labor Cost Index, rose 0.4% qoq, leaving annual growth steady at 2.0%. Public sector wages increased 1.7% yoy, while overall salary and wage rates rose 2.0% yoy. With annual CPI inflation running at 3.1%, wage growth remains well below consumer price inflation, suggesting limited evidence of a wage-price spiral.

The data are likely to reinforce the RBNZ’s cautious wait-and-see stance. While energy-related inflation risks remain elevated, stable wage growth gives policymakers more confidence that broader inflation pressures are not yet becoming entrenched through the labor market. As a result, the figures support the view that the RBNZ can remain on hold at 2.25% through the winter rather than rushing toward additional tightening.

Full New Zealand employment release here.