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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3392; (P) 1.3438; (R1) 1.3463; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the downside with breach of 1.3252 support. Fall from 1.3867 is resuming, and should target 1.3008 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3482 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place from 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least corrective the whole rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or under further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7815; (P) 0.7840; (R1) 0.7886; More….

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7603 is resuming by breaking 0.7877 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should be seen to 0.8039 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7746 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7603 low instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD, Firm break of 0.8039 resistance will argue that it's at least correcting the down trend from 0.9002. Stronger rebound would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. However, break of 0.7603 will resume the down trend to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Canada's economy lost 84k jobs in February (-0.4% month/month), far below consensus expectations for a 10k increase. Total employment is now essentially unchanged from September (+0.1%) having reversed most of last fall's gains. The details painted a similarly downbeat picture with the number of full-time workers down 108k, and the number of private sector workers down 73k for the month.

The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5% in January. The rise in the unemployment rate came despite another 27k people leaving the labour force. The decline took the labour force participation rate down another 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) to 64.9%. StatCan noted that the unemployment rate for both youth (+1.3 p.p.) and core working aged men (+0.3 p.p) rose in the month.

Job losses were spread across both goods (-28k) and services producing industries (-56k), with wholesale and retail trade (-18k), "other services" (-14k), construction (-12k) and manufacturing (-9.2k) bearing the brunt of the declines.

Wage growth was up in February, with average hourly wages up 3.9% versus a year ago (3.3% in January).

Key Implications

This was a decidedly weak report. Not only did employment decline, but the labour force contracted for a second consecutive month. Even looking through some of the noise in the top-line jobs figures, the unemployment rate rose again, reversing most of last month's improvements. Undoubtedly, the report was weaker than expected, but looking through the noise shows an economy that has struggled to gain traction. Something that was to be expected given the structural changes Canada is facing.

Looking forward, we are expecting the labour market to tread water in 2026, as a rapid slowdown in population growth drags on labour supply, and soft economic momentum limits hiring. The wildcard to all of this is how big the inflation shock from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will be. The duration of the supply disruption remains highly uncertain, but its length will impact inflation and, thereafter, consumer spending and the economy at large.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.81; (P) 159.12; (R1) 159.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. rise from 139.87 is resuming and should target a retest on 161.94 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. On the downside, below 158.55 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.16) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Market sentiment showed tentative signs of stabilization today as Brent crude slipped back below the psychological $100 per barrel level. The modest pullback in energy prices helped European equities recover from earlier losses while U.S. futures also moved back into positive territory.

However, the shift appears to reflect stabilization rather than a genuine improvement in risk appetite. The underlying geopolitical backdrop remains tense, with no clear end in sight for the Iran war, leaving markets reluctant to fully embrace risk.

Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump reinforced that uncertainty. In a social media post, Trump said the US has “unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time.” Rather than calming markets, the message was interpreted by some investors as a signal that the conflict could drag on for an extended period.

Against this uncertain backdrop, Yen has emerged as the strongest performer in currency markets today. Yet the rally is being driven by a complex set of forces rather than a straightforward safe-haven move. One key factor supporting the yen is rising intervention risk as USD/JPY approaches the psychologically important 160 level, widely seen by markets as a potential line in the sand for Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said today that the government is in “closer contact with U.S. authorities,” while also highlighting the impact of rising crude oil prices on household finances. Such language is typically interpreted as Tokyo seeking tacit approval from Washington for currency intervention.

At the same time, speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan could accelerate its policy normalization path. According to a Reuters report citing sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking, the inflationary impact of Middle East supply shocks may increase the likelihood of another rate hike as soon as April.

Despite Yen’s strength, Dollar is also attracting strong demand. Risk aversion tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict is supporting safe-haven flows into U.S. assets, while fading expectations for Fed rate cuts are further underpinning the greenback.

These opposing forces have effectively trapped USD/JPY in a narrow range. Intervention fears prevent the pair from moving significantly higher, while Dollar strength keeps it from falling decisively. As a result, traders are expressing Yen demand through cross instead. The market is actively selling currencies such as Euro and Pound against Yen, creating a steep decline in Yen crosses even while USD/JPY remains largely unchanged.

Sterling is particularly under pressure following disappointing UK economic data released earlier today. January GDP showed no growth on the month, missing expectations for a 0.2% expansion and reinforcing concerns that the UK economy entered 2026 with limited momentum. For the BoE, with oil prices elevated due to the Iran conflict, the risk of a stagflation scenario—sluggish growth combined with rising energy-driven inflation—has become a central concern for policymakers.

Loonie is also underperforming after a sharply weaker labor market report. Employment plunged by -83.9k in February, far worse than expectations for a modest increase, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%. The sudden deterioration in employment conditions raises questions about the underlying strength of the Canadian economy. The BoC is widely expected to remain on hold next week, but today’s data increases the risk that policymakers may eventually need to consider additional support if labor market weakness persists.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.24%. DAX is up 0.20%. CAC is up 0.02%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.003 at 4.716. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.010 at 2.951. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.16%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.98%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.82%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.27%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.057 to 2.245.

US core PCE rises 0.4% mom in January as consumer spending stays strong

US inflation data for January presented a mixed picture, with price pressures remaining firm even as the headline annual pace eased slightly. The headline PCE price index rose 0.3%om, while the core measure—which excludes food and energy—increased by 0.4% min. Both readings matched market expectations and indicate that underlying inflation remains somewhat sticky.

On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation slowed modestly from 2.9% to 2.8%, coming in slightly below forecasts. However, core inflation edged higher from 3.0% to 3.1% year-on-year, highlighting persistent price pressures in the broader economy and reinforcing the view that the disinflation process remains uneven.

Consumer demand remained resilient during the month. Personal spending increased by USD 81.1B, or 0.4% mom, exceeding expectations of 0.3% mom. Meanwhile, personal income rose by USD 113.8B, also translating into a 0.4% monthly gain but falling slightly short of 0.5% mom forecasts.

Canada jobs plunge -83.9k in February as unemployment rate climbs to 6.7%

Canada’s labor market suffered a sharp setback in February, with employment plunging by -83.9k, far worse than expectations for a modest gain of around 10k. The decline marks a significant deterioration in labor conditions.

The drop in employment was broad-based across sectors. Services-producing industries shed around -56k jobs, while goods-producing sectors lost roughly -28k positions. The deterioration pushed the unemployment rate higher to 6.7% from 6.5%, while the participation rate edged down slightly to 64.9%.

Despite the sharp decline in employment, wage growth accelerated noticeably. Average hourly wages rose 3.9% yoy in February, up from 3.3% in January.

Eurozone industrial production drops -1.5% mom as manufacturing weakness deepens

Eurozone industrial production fell sharply in January, highlighting renewed weakness in the region’s manufacturing sector. Output declined by -1.5% month-on-month, well below expectations for a 0.7% increase, suggesting that industrial momentum at the start of 2026 was significantly weaker than anticipated.

The decline was broad-based across most categories. Production of intermediate goods dropped by -1.9%, while capital goods output fell by -2.3%. Durable consumer goods production also declined by -1.9%, and non-durable consumer goods saw the steepest fall with a -6.0% drop. Energy output was the only bright spot, rising by 4.7% during the month and partially cushioning the overall decline.

Across the broader European Union, industrial production fell by -1.6% month-on-month. Ireland recorded the largest contraction with a -9.8% drop, followed by Luxembourg (-4.3%) and Sweden (-4.1%). In contrast, a few smaller economies posted gains, with Portugal leading the increases at +4.2%, followed by Latvia (+3.3%) and Lithuania (+2.7%).

UK GDP flat in January as services stall, production contracts

UK economic growth stalled at the start of the year, with GDP showing no expansion in January, falling short of expectations for a modest 0.2% mom rise. Sector data showed a mixed picture beneath the headline reading. Services output, which accounts for the largest share of the UK economy, was flat during the month. Production declined slightly by -0.1%

Construction posted 0.2% mom growth, but the sector remains under sustained pressure following a prolonged period of contraction driven by high borrowing costs and subdued investment.

Looking at the broader trend, the UK economy still managed a modest expansion of 0.2% in the three months to January, an improvement from the 0.1% growth recorded in the three months to December. Services output rose by 0.2% over the period, while production delivered stronger growth of 1.3%. However, construction was a significant drag, contracting by -2.0% over the same period.

New Zealand BNZ manufacturing holds firm at 55 in February

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in February, with BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index edging slightly lower from 55.1 to 55.0. While the headline reading dipped marginally, the index remains comfortably above the 50 breakeven level, signaling ongoing growth in the sector.

Underlying components showed mixed but generally positive trends. Production rose modestly from 56.5 to 56.7, while new orders strengthened from 56.6 to 57.6, indicating improving demand conditions. Employment, on the other hand, fell notably from 52.6 to 50.4.

Survey responses pointed to improving business sentiment, with the share of positive comments rising to 55.5% in February from 47.7% in January. Manufacturers reported stronger orders, enquiries, and sales, helped by firmer export demand and improving conditions across certain sectors.

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted that while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are dominating market attention, February’s PMI reading provides a solid starting point for the manufacturing sector heading into an uncertain global environment.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.81; (P) 159.12; (R1) 159.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. rise from 139.87 is resuming and should target a retest on 161.94 high. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. On the downside, below 158.55 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.16) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

US inflation data for January presented a mixed picture, with price pressures remaining firm even as the headline annual pace eased slightly. The headline PCE price index rose 0.3%om, while the core measure—which excludes food and energy—increased by 0.4% min. Both readings matched market expectations and indicate that underlying inflation remains somewhat sticky.

On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation slowed modestly from 2.9% to 2.8%, coming in slightly below forecasts. However, core inflation edged higher from 3.0% to 3.1% year-on-year, highlighting persistent price pressures in the broader economy and reinforcing the view that the disinflation process remains uneven.

Consumer demand remained resilient during the month. Personal spending increased by USD 81.1B, or 0.4% mom, exceeding expectations of 0.3% mom. Meanwhile, personal income rose by USD 113.8B, also translating into a 0.4% monthly gain but falling slightly short of 0.5% mom forecasts.

Full US personal income and outlays release here.

Canada’s labor market suffered a sharp setback in February, with employment plunging by -83.9k, far worse than expectations for a modest gain of around 10k. The decline marks a significant deterioration in labor conditions.

The drop in employment was broad-based across sectors. Services-producing industries shed around -56k jobs, while goods-producing sectors lost roughly -28k positions. The deterioration pushed the unemployment rate higher to 6.7% from 6.5%, while the participation rate edged down slightly to 64.9%.

Despite the sharp decline in employment, wage growth accelerated noticeably. Average hourly wages rose 3.9% yoy in February, up from 3.3% in January.

Full Canada employment release here.

Today the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above the psychological 100 mark for the first time in 2026, supported by a tense fundamental backdrop, with the military conflict in the Middle East acting as the main driver.

• → Financial market participants are selling riskier assets (such as equities and emerging market currencies) and reallocating funds into the US dollar, which is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during periods of war.
• → Iran’s statements about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz, along with strikes on fuel infrastructure, are driving oil prices higher and increasing global inflation risks.
• → The strength of the US economy is also supporting the dollar. Yesterday’s labour market data showed no increase in unemployment.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On the morning of 9 March, while analysing the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart, we:

• → updated the ascending channel (marked in blue), within which the index had set its yearly high at that time;
• → suggested that DXY price movements might begin to stabilise.

Between 9 and 12 March, the DXY chart showed a pullback followed by a renewed upward move, which remained within the range defined by last week’s levels:

• → support at 98.60;
• → resistance at 99.68.

However, the developments mentioned above allowed bulls to regain momentum and extend the rally within the blue channel. In other words, if the earlier fluctuations between these levels reflected a balance between supply and demand, then today, 13 March, buyers appear to be taking the initiative, showing a willingness to pay more for the US dollar.

At present, the market looks overbought, as:

• → the RSI indicator has moved above the 70 level;
• → the price is trading above the upper boundary of the channel that had contained it since late January.

In the short term, a modest pullback cannot be ruled out, although it is unlikely to significantly alter the current market picture.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap has risen 2% over the past 24 hours, to $2.43T, close to the upper limit of last month’s range and slightly below last week’s mid-range. We continue to note the positive momentum in cryptocurrencies, in contrast to the pressure on the Nasdaq 100 and gold prices. However, we believe this divergence is short-term and will only continue until traditional markets begin to collapse. At the same time, the markets are now testing key technical support levels, forcing cryptocurrency traders to stay on guard.

Bitcoin has exceeded $71.5K, approaching its 50-day moving average. External factors are acting as a headwind, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq100 and S&P 500 indices falling to their 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin will have the strength to withstand the wind for long, and internal resistance may soon become a significant obstacle to growth.

News Background

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expects Bitcoin to trade between $60K and $80K this year. According to him, in recent weeks, it is not large hedge funds that have played a key role in the crypto market, but private investors, who are driving the main demand for the first cryptocurrency.

Options market participants are betting that Bitcoin will rise to $80K by the beginning of summer. According to Derive estimates, the probability of BTC rising above $80K by the end of June is 35%. However, there are also large bearish bets in the market.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone is confident that the bearish trend for Bitcoin is not over and again expects the price to fall to $10K, recommending using local rebounds to lock in profits.

Blockchain developer activity has declined by 75% over the year due to the outflow of specialists to the artificial intelligence industry, according to Artemis. The number of active developers has fallen by 56% to approximately 4,600 people.

Eurozone industrial production fell sharply in January, highlighting renewed weakness in the region’s manufacturing sector. Output declined by -1.5% month-on-month, well below expectations for a 0.7% increase, suggesting that industrial momentum at the start of 2026 was significantly weaker than anticipated.

The decline was broad-based across most categories. Production of intermediate goods dropped by -1.9%, while capital goods output fell by -2.3%. Durable consumer goods production also declined by -1.9%, and non-durable consumer goods saw the steepest fall with a -6.0% drop. Energy output was the only bright spot, rising by 4.7% during the month and partially cushioning the overall decline.

Across the broader European Union, industrial production fell by -1.6% month-on-month. Ireland recorded the largest contraction with a -9.8% drop, followed by Luxembourg (-4.3%) and Sweden (-4.1%). In contrast, a few smaller economies posted gains, with Portugal leading the increases at +4.2%, followed by Latvia (+3.3%) and Lithuania (+2.7%).

Full Eurozone industrial production release here.