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Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said it is worth waiting "a ‌little while" to see how the Iran conflict develops before deciding whether interest rates need to rise, warning that the latest energy shock has shifted inflation risks “entirely on the upside.” Speaking in a Bloomberg podcast interview published Monday, Greene said policymakers need more time to assess how the war will "propagate through the economy" before making another move on rates.

Greene described the current environment as particularly difficult for central banks because the UK is now facing a negative supply shock that could simultaneously lift inflation and weaken growth. “We've now had a negative supply shock, an energy shock, and that stands to push inflation up and growth down,” she said, calling it “a terrible situation for a central banker to be in.”

At the same time, Greene suggested Britain’s weak economy and looser labor market should help contain stronger second-round inflation effects. Still, she cautioned that inflation progress had already been slowing before the Iran conflict escalated, suggesting underlying price pressures were proving more persistent even before the latest energy-driven shock hit the economy.

GBP/USD is attempting a consolidation phase above 1.33500. USD/CAD is showing positive signs and might aim for more gains above 1.3725.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a recovery wave above 1.3515 and 1.3550.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3620 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD rallied above 1.3650 and 1.3680 before the bears appeared.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3695 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.3635 after a decent increase. The British Pound traded below 1.3600 to again move into a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.3580 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near 1.3550. A low was formed near 1.3547, and the pair is now attempting a short-term recovery wave.

There was a fresh upside above 1.3580 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3636 swing high to the 1.3547 low. The pair is now showing positive signs above 1.3550. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level at 1.3600 or the 50-hour simple moving average.

The first major hurdle for the bulls on the GBP/USD chart is near a bearish trend line at 1.3620. A close above 1.3620 might spark a decent increase. The next stop for the bulls might be 1.3655. Any more gains could lead the pair toward 1.3710 in the near term.

Initial support sits at 1.3550. The next key area of interest might be 1.3515, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.3450.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair formed a strong support base above the 1.3580 level. The US Dollar started a fresh increase above 1.3635 against the Canadian Dollar.

The pair cleared the 50-hour simple moving average, climbed above 1.3650, and surpassed a bearish trend line at 1.3695. The last swing high was formed at 1.3723, and the pair is now showing positive signs above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3579 swing low to the 1.3723 high.

On the upside, Initial resistance sits near 1.3725. The main breakout zone could be 1.3740. A clear upside break above 1.3740 could start another steady increase.

The next major stop for the bulls might be 1.3800. Any more gains could open the doors for a test of 1.4000. If there is a pullback, the pair could find bids near 1.3680 or the 50-hour simple moving average. A downside break below 1.3680 might send the pair toward the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3650.

The next major area on the same USD/CAD chart could be 1.3580. A close below 1.3580 could push the pair further lower. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a test of 1.3500.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.65; (P) 213.17; (R1) 214.05; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, below 210.43 will extend the fall from 216.58 to 209.58 support first. However, firm break of 214.21 will argue that the pullback from 216.58 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.75) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.99; (P) 184.36; (R1) 184.99; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point, and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, break of 182.01 will extend the fall from 187.93 to 180.78 support. Nevertheless, firm break of 185.02 will suggest that pullback from 187.93 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.04) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8636; (P) 0.8645; (R1) 0.8653; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidations continue above 0.8618. On the downside, firm break of 0.8610 will carry larger bearish implications and pave the way to 0.8466 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8676 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound back to 0.8740 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Sustained break there will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8677) holds, in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6237; (P) 1.6261; (R1) 1.6281; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.6181. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6125 will resume larger fall from 1.8554. Nevertheless, break of 1.6371 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6516).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7039) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9134; (P) 0.9147; (R1) 0.9161; More....

EUR/USD is still struggling in tight range around 0.9155 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8979 to 0.9264 at 0.9155). Intraday bias remains neutral a this point. On the upside, break of 0.9177 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9264 resistance. However, sustained trading below 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 61.8% retracement at 0.9088 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9241) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3642; (P) 1.3675; (R1) 1.3709; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.3549 will extend the fall from 1.3965 to retest 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. However, sustained break of 1.3709 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3965 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7213; (P) 0.7230; (R1) 0.7262; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 0.7277. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7101 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7277 will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1740; (P) 1.1764; (R1) 1.1806; More….

Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 1.1642 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.1848 will target 1.2081 high next. However, firm break of 1.1662 support will indicate the the rebound from 1.1408 has completed, and bring deeper decline back towards this low instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1539). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.