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On 1 September, in the article Bitcoin Price Chart Analysis: Are the Bulls Lifting Their Heads?, we:

→ drew a long-term upward (blue) and short-term downward (red) channel;

→ highlighted a series of bullish signals and suggested that the price could climb towards the median of the red channel.

Indeed, since then Bitcoin’s price has not only reached the median of the red channel but has also moved into its upper half. Since the start of the month, the leading cryptocurrency has gained more than 5%.

Why Is Bitcoin Rising?

The main factors include:

→ Expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, which create favourable conditions for risk assets.

→ News of a strategic partnership between Nasdaq and crypto exchange Gemini.

→ Inflows of corporate investment. For example, Metaplanet announced plans for large-scale Bitcoin purchases.

→ Reduced regulatory uncertainty has also played an important role, with SEC leadership statements in support of innovation being welcomed by the market.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

The chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price is still in a corrective phase (marked by the red channel) within the broader uptrend. In other words, we may be “inside” a bull flag pattern, with the potential for renewed growth within the blue channel in the coming weeks.

From a bullish perspective:

→ demand is showing strength, as the price has reached its highest level since 24 August;

→ higher highs and higher lows form a steady upward trajectory, marked by orange lines, with the lower one potentially continuing to act as support in the coming days;

→ the red median, once broken, may now serve as support, along with the former local resistance at $113,113.

From a bearish perspective, Bitcoin’s price has approached key resistance levels:

→ the upper boundary of the red channel;

→ the psychological mark of $115,000;

→ the 50% retracement level of the A→B impulse, around $116k.

Taking the above into account, we could assume that the bulls still hold the upper hand, though their momentum may be weakening. We might see BTC/USD consolidating near the $115k level, with a decisive shift in sentiment potentially occurring next week, when several central banks are set to announce interest rate decisions.

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The US dollar is showing cautious dynamics: the USD/JPY pair is holding within a range, reflecting the market’s wait-and-see stance, while USD/CAD is gradually approaching August highs. This divergence highlights that investors are carefully allocating positions amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

The main focus is on a block of US statistics — consumer price indices, jobless claims, and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Weak inflation and labour market figures would increase pressure on the dollar, while stronger data could temporarily restore support.

Thus, the market remains in search of fresh momentum: whether levels are broken or consolidation persists will depend on whether macro data confirm the scenario of policy easing or, conversely, postpone its implementation.

USD/JPY

Despite disappointing US employment data released at the end of last week, USD/JPY continues to trade within a six-week range of 146.40–148.60. Early this week, sellers attempted to break through the lower boundary of the corridor but have so far been unsuccessful. Technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests a possible strengthening towards 148.00–148.60, as a hammer candlestick has formed following the rebound. A bounce from current levels could also lead to a retest of support at 146.30–146.60.

Events that could influence the direction of USD/JPY:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
• Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Budget Statement

USD/CAD

As expected, following the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern, USD/CAD managed to test the key 1.3800–1.3860 range. Should the dollar receive a positive news driver, the pair might strengthen towards 1.3880–1.3900. The nearest support could be within the 1.3790–1.3830 area.

Events that could influence the direction of USD/CAD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Building Permits
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• Today at 19:00 (GMT+3): US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Report

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The GBP/USD pair traded in a tight range around 1.3524 USD on Thursday, with movement constrained as markets await key US inflation data and pivotal policy meetings from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England next week.

The pound has managed to recover from a sell-off earlier in September, when concerns over UK fiscal sustainability pushed the currency to monthly lows and propelled long-term government bond yields to levels last seen in the late 1990s.

Sterling is supported by investor expectations that the Bank of England will refrain from aggressive rate cuts, especially as other major central banks, including the Fed, move towards easing. Another supportive factor is the UK’s elevated inflation, which remains the highest among G7 nations, with particularly persistent price growth in services and wages.

Recent data indicate the economy is proving resilient despite lingering inflationary pressures and a softening labour market. In this context, Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to maintain fiscal stability without breaching the government’s borrowing rules. The upcoming budget statement in November will be closely watched.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

 H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is continuing a corrective decline from the recent high near 1.3584 USD. The pair may extend this move towards support around 1.3420 USD. Once the correction is complete, a rebound from this level could initiate a new upward move, with initial resistance at 1.3548 USD, followed by a retest of 1.3584 USD. The MACD indicator supports this view: although the histogram and signal line remain above zero, both are declining, suggesting near-term downward momentum within a broader consolidation.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has tested 1.3517 USD and continues its corrective phase. The immediate downside target is support at 1.3485 USD. A break below this level could extend the correction towards deeper supports. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this near-term bearish bias, with its signal line hovering near 20.0, indicating oversold conditions, while continuing to trend lower.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is trading cautiously as markets brace for next week’s central bank decisions. While the pound remains supported by relatively hawkish BoE expectations and high inflation, its near-term direction will likely be determined by the Fed’s tone and upcoming UK fiscal developments. Technically, the pair is undergoing a short-term correction, which may present buying opportunities if key support levels hold.

The recent movement of the USD/JPY has been very choppy as it continues to trade within a four-month-plus “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since its 22 April 2025 low of 139.89.

The initial 0.8% intraday rally of the US dollar against the Japanese yen at the start of this week’s Asia session on Monday, 8 September 2025, to hit an intraday high of 148,58 has evaporated as the USD/JPY is now trading almost unchanged week-to-date as of Thursday, 11 September, at 147.40.

Market participants have largely looked beyond the political uncertainty stemming from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, shifting their focus to factors that could shape the Bank of Japan’s ongoing monetary policy normalization path.

Let’s examine these fundamental factors.

Japan’s PPI is still evolving in an upward trend, a leading indicator of core-core CPI

Fig. 1: Japan PPI & core-core CPI as of Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

One of the key economic indicators that the BoJ monitors to formulate its monetary policy decision is Japan’s nationwide core-core CPI inflation trend (excluding fresh and energy).

Interestingly, the trend of Japan’s producers’ price index (PPI), a gauge that measures companies’ input costs, has a lead time ahead of the core-core CPI.

Based on past data, Japan’s PPI bottomed out and reversed upwards ahead of Japan’s core-core CPI inflation in August 2009, June 2016, May 2020, and most recently December 2023.

The latest print of Japan’s PPI has started to firm up after a slowdown in growth of 4.3% y/y in March 2025. The PPI rose 2.7% y/y in August 2025, accelerating from 2.5% y/y in the previous month of July (see Fig. 1).

Hence, a continuation of an upward growth trend in Japan’s PPI is likely to have a trickle-down effect on the core CPI inflation trend to allow it to trend higher above the BoJ’s long-term inflation target of 2%, in support of a continuation of the BoJ’s gradual interest rate hikes in place since March 2024.

Overall, a supporting fundamental element that can assert upside pressure on the Japanese yen.

Narrowing of the longer-term yield spread between US Treasury bonds and JGBs

Fig. 2: 10-year and 2-year yield spreads of US Treasuries and JGBs as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The 10-year sovereign bond yield of a country often serves as a key gauge of its long-term inflation outlook and economic growth prospects.
A relative comparison of these expectations between two countries can be captured through the 10-year yield spread of their sovereign bonds.

For instance, the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has been narrowing since October 2025, falling from 4.15% to the current level of 2.48%, just above a critical support at 2.47% (see Fig. 2).

This narrowing suggests that US Treasuries have become relatively less attractive versus JGBs, reducing the yield premium in favour of the dollar. As a result, this dynamic may exert downside pressure on USD/JPY.

Let’s now examine the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective to determine its short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key levels to watch.

Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Potential push down towards minor range support of 146.70/146.40 in place since 5 August 2025, with key short-term pivotal resistance at 148.75/148.95 (see Fig. 3).

A break below 146.40 may trigger a further drop to test the medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range support of 145.95.

Key elements

• The USD/JPY is stuck inside a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since the 22 April 2025 low. The upper boundary/resistance of the range stands at 149.90, and the lower boundary/support of the range rests at 145.95 (see Fig. 4).
• The hourly RSI momentum has ticked up higher to 66, which is coming close to its overbought region (above 70), which suggests a potential imminent mean reversion downside movement for the USD/JPY within its range configuration.
• The USD/JPY is still trading below its key 200-day moving average, which is acting as a resistance at 148.75.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A clearance above 148.95 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the key medium-term resistance of 149.70/149.90 (the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge”).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.09; (P) 199.45; (R1) 199.89; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point and more consolidations could be seen. Further rise is expected as long as 197.93 support holds. Firm break of 200.26 resistance will resume the rally from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. On the downside, however, break of 197.93 support will turn bias to the downside for 195.01 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.19; (P) 172.56; (R1) 172.83; More...

EUR/JPY's fall from 173.88 is currently seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 173.87. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 171.09 support. Break there will target 169.69. Nevertheless, decisive break of 173.87/8 will resume larger rise from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high.

In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8635; (P) 0.8648; (R1) 0.8657; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rise is mildly in favor with 0.8636 minor support intact. On the upside above 0.8711 will bring retest of 0.8752 high. However, break of 0.8636 will extend the pattern from 0.88752 with another falling leg, and target 0.8959 support.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8519) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7634; (P) 1.7713; (R1) 1.7755; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.8155 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.8554. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7593. Break will target 1.7245 support. On the upside, above 1.7796 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9330; (P) 0.9342; (R1) 0.9360; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9394 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 0.9313 support will resume the decline from 0.9452. That would also solidify the bearish case that corrective pattern from 0.9218 has completed with three waves up to 0.9452 already. Deeper fall should then be seen to 0.9265 support, and then 0.9204 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Markets

Market focus shifted from the US labour market back to inflation. Mediocre labour data last week reinforced the case for the Fed to restart easing. Still, the market reaction remained guarded, especially on the pace of normalization. This caution prevailed in the wake of softer than expected August PPI data yesterday. Both headline and core (ex-food and energy) declined 0.1% M/M (2.6% and 2.8% Y/Y respectively). Core-core (also excluding trade) was more in line with expectations (0.3% M/M and 2.8% Y/Y). After the surprise rebound in yields after Tuesday’s downward BLS payrolls revision, US yields yesterday eased 1.5 bps (2-y) to 4.2 bps (10-y). Even so, three 25 bps steps by the end of the year are still not fully discounted. Markets apparently first want more additional Fed guidance on the balance between labour and inflation. The outperformance at the long end was reinforced by a strong 10-yr Note auction later in the session. EMU interest rate markets treaded water ahead of today’s ECB meeting. A brief USD-dip after the PPI-release was soon reversed. DXY (97.78) and EUR/USD (1.1695) showed no directional bias at all. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at (minor) new record levels.

Three topics are bound to capture markets’ attention today. The ECB holds a regular policy meeting, with the assessment supported by new staff economic projections. In the US, August CPI data are providing the final key input ahead of next week’s Fed policy decision. The US Treasury sells $22bn of 30-y Bonds. More than is the case for the Fed, the ECB can tell markets that it is in a good place. Headline Inflation is perfectly on target (2.1%). Core is still slightly higher (2.3%), but in June the ECB projected inflation to ease next year, before returning to target in 2027. There is little reason to change this view. Growth recently held up better than expected. The ebbing of trade tensions and fiscal stimulation filtering through might cause a slight upward revision in growth forecasts. ECB Chair Lagarde has every reason to maintain the July strategy of keeping communication deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions. With markets still not completely excluding a final rate cut (65% chance) next year, the downside in short term EMU yields looks well protected. US August CPI is expected at 0.3% M/M for both core and headline to result in 2.9% Y/Y (from 2.7%) and 3.1% (unchanged) respectively. Recent price action suggests that sub-consensus CPI is needed for markets to fully embrace the idea of the Fed (re)accelerating policy easing. In case of mixed, in line CPI data, the 3.5% support (2-y) can survive for some time. The 30-y US Treasury action also deserves a closer look. High absolute yield levels and the fiscal sustainability theme moving a bit to the background, triggered renewed buying interest. Interesting to see how much easing in (fiscal) risk premia investors are prepared to accept. On FX markets, the ECB-US CPI combo probably extends the recent directionless USD (& EUR/USD) trading.

News & Views

Mexico is planning to impose tariffs of as much as 50%, applicable to more than 1400 product categories including cars, steel, toys and furniture, coming from countries that have no trade agreement with Mexico. Among the biggest to be hit are South Korea, India and China. Mexico has for example become the biggest destination for Chinese cars. Its economy minister said the decision is to protect jobs but it’s also considered a move to appease the US administration ahead of a review of the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada) trade agreement next year. Both Canada and the US took measures in recent years to prevent Chinese vehicles from entering their markets.

The RICS’s UK house price tracker defied expectations for a slight improvement in August, dropping instead to the lowest level since January 2024. The index retreated from -13.4% to -18.5% with further price declines expected in the next three months. The surveyors said that sales are falling at an accelerated pace and buyer demand is weakening in most of the UK. Head of market research and analysis at RICS Parsons said that “Concerns over the wider economic and fiscal outlook, combined with questions around the future path of interest rates amid stubbornly high inflation, are weighing on sentiment at this time.”