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According to the XBR/USD chart:

→ Prior to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, the price of Brent crude was hovering around the $69.00 mark;

→ Following US bombings in Iran, the price spiked at the Monday market open, reaching a high of approximately $77.77 (as we reported on 23 June).

However, after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel — later confirmed by statements from both sides — oil prices dropped sharply. This morning, Brent is trading around $68, which is even lower than the level seen before the initial strikes.

Media outlets report that analysts broadly agree that fears have eased, even if the ceasefire appears fragile. Market participants seem to view the likelihood of the conflict escalating into a full-scale ground war — involving US troops and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — as low. Shipping through the strait is reportedly returning to normal.

Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart

Interestingly, the $69 level — from which prices surged on 13 June — acted as resistance yesterday (as indicated by the arrow on the chart).

It can be assumed that the longer the ceasefire holds, the less relevant the fears that have served as bullish drivers. In that case, Brent crude prices may continue fluctuating within a downward channel, outlined in red, with the possibility of a short-term rise toward its upper boundary.

Nevertheless, the key drivers for oil prices will remain the fundamental backdrop and official statements regarding the situation in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 196.90; (P) 197.32; (R1) 197.70; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Current rise from 184.35 should target 199.79 resistance. Break there will target 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 193.99 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.68; (P) 168.48; (R1) 169.06; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 169.69 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 166.01 support holds. Break of 169.69 temporary top will resume the rise from 154.77 and target 100% projection of 154.77 to 165.19 from 161.06 at 170.45.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7823; (P) 1.7878; (R1) 1.7943; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidations below 1.7989 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.7626 support holds. Above 1.7989 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term are currently seen as a corrective pattern. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9315; (P) 0.9372; (R1) 0.9404; More....

EUR/CHF fell steeply after rejection by 0.9248 resistance, but stays in established range. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9428/45 resistance zone will resume the rebound from 0.9218. However, break of 0.9306 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9218 low instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9511) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6453; (P) 0.6486; (R1) 0.6522; More...

AUD/USD is staying in range below 0.6551 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolations could extend with another falling leg. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6551 at 0.6307 holds. Firm break of 0.6551 will resume the rally from 0.5913.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Geopolitical risk premium continued to unwind across global financial markets on Tuesday, as risk-on sentiment gained traction following signs that Israel and Iran are now respecting a ceasefire deal brokered late Monday by US President Trump, despite earlier breaches from both sides.

The de-escalation of the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict also drove a sharp bearish reversal in oil prices. WTI crude extended its losses from Monday, 14 June, registering a two-day decline of -15.3% to trade at US$66.05/barrel—effectively erasing the geopolitical premium and returning to pre-conflict levels.

Softer oil prices and Fed Powell’s dovish hint reinforced risk-on sentiment

The retreat in oil prices has helped ease stagflation concerns, providing a tailwind for global equities. With reduced inflationary pressures, central banks may now find more room to implement expansionary monetary policy if needed.

In his testimony before US Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to the dovish tone, stating, “If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates, sooner rather than later.” His comments echoed recent remarks by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, who have hinted that rate cuts could begin as early as July, earlier than current expectations reflected in Fed funds futures, which price in a first cut at the September FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch tool).

Powell’s dovish comments reinforced the risk-on mood. Major US stock indices closed sharply higher, led by the high-beta Nasdaq 100, which surged 1.9% to retest its all-time intraday high of 22,222—despite a weaker-than-expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence print for May (actual: 93.0 vs consensus: 100.0, prior: 98.4).

The greenback drifted lower, with the US Dollar Index just a whisker away from a critical support level

The US dollar continued to weaken. The US Dollar Index recorded a second straight daily loss, falling -0.4% on Tuesday to close at 97.97 after rejecting its 50-day moving average. It now hovers just above a key long-term support at 97.40; a weekly close below this level could signal the start of a multi-month downtrend for the greenback.

In today’s Asian mid-session, the dollar remains under pressure. The high-beta New Zealand and Australian dollars are outperforming, up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, followed by modest gains in the Swiss franc and euro.

Gold stabilizes at the 50-day moving average

Gold (XAU/USD) has started to stabilize after Tuesday’s 1.36% decline, which saw it close at US$3,323 following a breach of its 20-day moving average support at US$3,350. The yellow metal is currently up 0.3% intraday to US$3,333 after rebounding off its 50-day moving average at US$3,300, supported by a weaker US dollar and softer long-term Treasury yields.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Potential minor recovery for Gold (XAU/USD)

Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 25 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The minor corrective decline of -4.5% seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from its 16 June 2025 high to Tuesday, 24 June 2025 low has stalled and reversed upwards from the 50-day moving average.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has rebounded back above the 50 level after hitting its oversold region on Tuesday, which suggests a revival of bullish momentum at least in the short term.

Watch the US$3,300 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the US$3,346 near-term resistance (also close to the 20-day moving average) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,400 and US$3,450 (see Fig 2).

However, failure to hold at US$3,300 invalidates the recovery scenario to extend the corrective decline sequence towards the next intermediate support at US$3,270/3,250 (also the medium-term ascending trendline from 31 December 2024 low).

AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6440 and 0.6465 levels. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.6040.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar rebounded after forming a base above the 0.6370 level against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6470 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.6000 zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5970 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6370 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6400 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6440 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6470. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6520 zone. A high was formed near 0.6519 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase.

The pair dipped and tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6372 swing low to the 0.6519 high.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6485 level. The next major support is near the 0.6465 zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.6465 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6445 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level.

Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6405. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6520. The first major resistance might be 0.6550. An upside break above 0.6580 might send the pair further higher.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6600 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.6650.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a steady increase from the 0.5880 zone. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5920 resistance to start the recent increase against the US Dollar.

There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5970. The pair settled above 0.5960 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 0.6040 zone and is currently consolidating gains.

The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5882 swing low to the 0.6040 high. However, the bulls are active above the 0.6000 level.

The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is stable near 60. On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.6040. The next major resistance is near the 0.6090 level.

A clear move above the 0.6090 level might even push the pair toward 0.6120. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6200 resistance zone in the coming days.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5980 level. The first key support is near 0.5960. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level.

The next major support is near 0.5920. If there is a downside break below the 0.5920 support, the pair might slide toward 0.5880. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 0.5850.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3690; (P) 1.3714; (R1) 1.3750; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.3797 will resume the rebound from 1.3538 short term bottom, as a correction to fall from 1.4791. But upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017), at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 1.3633 will bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1575; (P) 1.1608; (R1) 1.1643; More...

EUR/USD's breach of 1.1630 resistance suggests that rise from 1.0176 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.1452 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.