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Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of BTCUSD published in members area of the website. As our members know Bitcoin has given us 3 waves pull back recently that found buyers right at the equal legs area. We have been favoring the long side due to impulsive bullish sequences the crypto is showing. In further text we’re going to explain the short term Elliott Wave forecast.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.13.2025

Current view suggests Bitcoin ended cycle from the 100,547 low as wave 1 red. We got 5 waves up in the rally from the mentioned low. Currently the crypto is doing intraday pull back , wave 2 red. The correction has reached the extreme zone, but it still appears incomplete at this time. We may see further short-term weakness within the highlighted area. We expect buyers to appear in the 104,499–102,044 zone, leading to a potential rally toward new highs or at least a 3-wave bounce.

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Note: Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 06.16.2025

BTCUSD found buyers at the marked equal legs area as expected and we got good reaction from there. We count pull back completed at 102,848 low. We don’t recommend selling in any proposed pull back. The price should ideally hold above 102,848 low to keep proposed view intact. We would like to see break above 1 red peak 110,607 to confirm next leg up is in progress. Bitcoin is ideally targeting 112,794 area next.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time.  You can check most recent charts with target levels in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

USDCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCHF reversed from key support level 0.8055
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8185

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8055, which stopped the previous impulse wave (1) at the end of April.

The support zone near the support level 0.8055 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the oversold daily Stochastic, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8185 (former support from May and the start of June).

USDJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• USDJPY reversed from the support zone
•  Likely to rise to the resistance level 146.00

USDJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 142.50, which has been reversing the price from the start of August.

The upward reversal from the support level 142.50 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.

USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 146.00 (top of the previous correction 2 from last month).

Ethereum: ⬆️ Buy

• Ethereum moving inside sideways price range
• Likely to rise to the resistance level 2754.00

Ethereum cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 2435,00 (lower border of the active narrow sideways price range from May), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.

The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.

Ethereum can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 2754.00 (upper border of the active sideways price range).

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of AUDUSD. In which, the rally from 08 April 2025 low is unfolding as corrective sequence but showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in AUDUSD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

AUDUSD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6.13.2025

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 6.13.2025 NY update. In which, the rally to $0.6545 high completed wave 1 & made a pullback in wave 2. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag correction where wave ((a)) ended at $0.6474 low. Then a rally to $0.6533 high-ended wave ((b)) bounce. Then started the next leg lower in wave ((c)) towards $0.6461- $0.6417 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

AUDUSD Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 6.16.2025

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 6.16.2025 London update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above $0.6545 high is needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid double correction lower.

WTI oil price fell over 6% until early US session on Monday, as traders collected profits from last week’s almost 13% rally.

Oil was lifted by easing trade tensions between US and China that boosted expectations of stronger economic growth and subsequent rise in demand and escalation of Israel-Iran conflict which fueled fears of spreading conflict through sensitive Middle East region.

However, strong bullish sentiment faded after heavy exchange of fire between two countries over the weekend did not damage any significant oil installation, prompting market participants to change direction on fact that there were no immediate threats on oil supply.

Technical picture on daily chart shows bullish momentum weakening and stochastic reversing just under the border of overbought zone but remains overall bullish for now.

The pullback that came after strong upside rejection on Friday, broke below Fibo 23.6% of $55.40/$77.62 upleg ($72.38), and cracked the first of three pivotal supports ($70.00/$69.13/$68.49 – psychological / Fibo 38.2% / 200DMA).

Firm break of this zone would weaken near-term structure and open way for deeper correction.

On the other hand, geopolitical situation, as key oil driver nowadays, remains overheated, with fears that closure of Strait Hormuz by Iran could strongly inflate oil prices.

Res: 71.42; 72.02; 72.79; 74.36
Sup: 69.13; 68.45; 66.50; 65.99

If you read the news and don’t look at the prices, it’s hard to imagine a more bullish background for oil, but its quotes, although at their highest levels since March, still lost more than 1% on Monday compared to Friday’s close and are 3.5% below the level at the opening of trading on Monday.

Israel has started targeting Iran’s oil and gas facilities. In Iran, threats of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world’s LNG and 20% of oil passes, are becoming increasingly vocal.

However, this news was not enough to break Friday’s highs of $76.3 per barrel of Brent. The price is drifting downwards towards the lower boundary of consolidation in the second half of Friday at $72.5. This is still 10% higher than last week’s starting levels, but hardly impressive.

By comparison, oil plummeted 22% from around $75 in response to Trump’s April announcement of global tariffs, which did not directly affect oil.

The market is in no hurry to translate fears into a risk premium. This is probably due to the greater influence of macroeconomics on prices, as commodity exporters in recent years have preferred not to use energy as a weapon, as was the case in the 1980s. On the contrary, in modern history, oil and gas have been subject to sanctions by importers.

The trend of declining drilling activity also continues in the United States. Data published on Friday by Baker Hughes showed a decrease in the number of oil rigs by 3 to 439, a new low since October 2021.

Formally, bulls can chalk up last week’s close above the 200-day moving average, which is currently at $71.50. But Monday’s sharp decline calls into question the sustainability of this trend. Most likely, the surge was caused by a short squeeze, and now large players are selling oil to retailers, taking advantage of the high-profile news background and the sharpest shift of private traders from net sellers to buyers.

The RSI technical oscillator repeated the peak levels of the last two years at 75 on a daily timeframe, which marked the peaks in oil prices.

Last week’s events pushed oil above the former strong support level that had been in place for the past three years. However, strong and rather unexpected selling pressure indicates that the bears have the advantage, as they may use the latest surge as a convenient point to sell.

Markets

The military conflict between Israel and Iran adds another layer of uncertainty both to the CB’s assessment as well as in shaping the market reaction function. A soft oil price of late was an important factor supporting the disinflationary process. This ‘easy inflation win’ might evaporate as the conflict continues. Additional overall uncertainty might weigh on growth, raising stagflationary risks. A highly uncomfortable mix for central bankers. Still market moves today remain moderate and orderly. Brent oil this morning temporary jumped to $78 p/b, but soon eased to currently trade near $73 p/b. Markets apparently don’t expect an major supply disruption from the Persian Gulf region yet. This assessment of course can change instantaneously. Even so equities also reverse part of Friday’s setback, apparently taking the view that (regional) geopolitical uncertainty often only has a temporary impact on markets. The EuroStoxx 50 adds 0.6%. The S&P opened with a similar gain. Interest rate markets for now don’t see this additional layer of uncertainty as a reason from central banks to shift to a more benign, growth supportive bias. On the contrary. Majors CB’s, in particular the Fed, recently indicated that low visibility on the impact of trade policy or other sources of uncertainty was a reason to await better insights before moving to next policy steps. US yields add between 1.5-3 bps across the curve. After underperforming on Friday, German yields today trade little changed, paring earlier gains of as much as 5 bps. ECB’s heavyweights Nagel and de Guindos at least also guided toward a more reactive wait-and-see approach. Nagel said that as policy no is no longer restrictive, the ECB should retain full optionality to cope with the high level of uncertainty, both on growth and on inflation. ‘Pre-determining the future – neither a further interest rate cut nor a pauze in monetary policy- is not sensible’, Nagel was quoted. He also warns that the ECB, having reached some kind of mission accomplished on inflation, there is no reason for complacency. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos in a similar vein said that he sees little risk for inflation falling too low. He also said that the euro at current levels shouldn’t be a big obstacle as its recent appreciation had not been volatile nor (too) rapid, two key factors he is looking at. This at least sounds as a ’nihil obstat’ for a strong euro. At least today, after a brief oil-driven setback on Friday, EUR/USD is again rather well bid (currently EUR/USD 1.158). The dollar overall still struggles to avoid further losses (DXY at 97.9 with the YTD low at 97.6). The yen holds near USDJPY 144 as market look forward to tomorrow’s BOJ decision. Sterling remains in the defensive after a set of disappointing data last week. With the BOE still further away from its inflation target, e.g. compared to the ECB, the higher oil prices poses an additional challenge for the BoE. The BoE this way being hampered to move to a more growth supportive stance is no help for sterling. EUR/GBP today rose further to 0.8525.

News & Views

Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs lowered its 2025 and 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, from 1.4% and 1.6% expected in March. The downgrade comes amid high uncertainty regarding international trade and economic policy. Export performance, which the country heavily relies on, is seen weakening significantly for the remainder of the year after a strong start due to a frontloading effect ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. The growth adjustment comes ahead of Thursday’s Swiss National Bank’s policy meeting. A rate cut to 0% from 0.25% is widely expected amid sub-target inflation. The key question then pops up whether policymakers eye a return to below zero. The likes of SNB governor Schlegel have never excluded it in the face of the strong Swiss franc and its disinflationary impact. EUR/CHF today trades around 0.939.

The nominee for vice-governor of Hungary’s central bank Daniel Palotai told lawmakers during his confirmation hearing that the MNB’s priority is to break inflation and anchor it at its 3% medium-term target. To do so Palotai favours a cautious, patient and data-dependent monetary policy approach, echoing the central bank’s current stance. He noted that inflation was sticky, in particular in core and services prices. Palotai was nominated by Hungarian prime minister Orban and will become the fourth deputy governor, a position created earlier this month by parliament as part of an overhaul of the institution’s leadership. The Hungarian forint outperforms regional peers today with EUR/HUF easing to 401.4.

Canadian housing starts came in at a healthy rate of 279.5k annualized units in May, essentially holding on to April's large gain. Meanwhile, the six-month moving average of starts inched higher by 0.8% m/m to 243.4k units.

In urban markets, May's performance was evenly split across the multi-family and single-detached sectors, with the former rising by 2k to 217.3k units, while the latter declined by the same amount to 42.5k units.

Urban starts were up in 5 of 10 provinces:

• Starts rose strongly in Quebec (+10k to 61k units) while inching higher in Ontario (+1.8k to 66k units). They also increased in the Prairies (+6.2k to 81k units), lifted by Manitoba and Alberta.
• Starts dropped in the Atlantic (-2.3k to 16k units), weighed down by Newfoundland and Labrador, PEI and Nova Scotia. They also pulled back significantly in B.C. (-15.4k to 36k units).

Key Implications

With May's solid level, housing starts are on track to increase in the second quarter. This bodes well for residential investment and should help offset some softness on this component coming through from home sales.

Elevated building permits suggest that homebuilding can maintain a healthy pace in the near-term, but we don't expect this to last. Homebuilding should cool moving forward as slower population growth, falling rents in key markets, high construction costs, and past declines in home sales weigh on activity.