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Euro Stays Subdued On Services PMI
The euro was trading flat on Wednesday although the bearish momentum was evident. The June services PMI report published by Markit showed a slightly better than expected headline print. Services activity rose to 53.6, beating estimates of 53.4. The data did not help the euro which remained biased to the downside.
EURUSD Could Decline to 1.1250
The current bearish momentum could keep the EURUSD biased to test the 1.1250 level of support once again. However, we expect price to remain flat in the short term, in the run-up to Friday’s payrolls report. There is scope for the common currency to potentially post a reversal off the current lows above 1.1250 handle on a weaker payrolls report.
Crude Oil Bullish Bias Above 56.70
Pivot (invalidation): 56.70
Our preference Long positions above 56.70 with targets at 57.45 & 58.10 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 56.70 look for further downside with 56.10 & 55.35 as targets.
Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Silver Spot Rebound
Pivot (invalidation): 15.2200
Our preference Long positions above 15.2200 with targets at 15.4200 & 15.4600 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 15.2200 look for further downside with 15.1400 & 15.1000 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Gold Spot Consolidation
Pivot (invalidation): 1423.00
Our preference Short positions below 1423.00 with targets at 1412.00 & 1403.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1423.00 look for further upside with 1431.00 & 1437.50 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1261; (P) 1.1286; (R1) 1.1303; More...
EUR/USD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further decline remains in favor with 1.1344 minor resistance intact. Recovery from 1.1107 might have completed earlier than expected at 1.1412. Break of 1.1181 support will confirm and bring retest of 1.1107 low. Though, above 1.1344 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to resume the rebound from 1.1107 through 1.1412 instead.
In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1107 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. Reactions from there could indicate whether rebound from 1.1107 is a corrective rise or reversing medium term trend. In any case, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 1.1107 low remains intact.
S&P 500 Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 2977.50
Our preference Long positions above 2977.50 with targets at 3001.00 & 3017.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 2977.50 look for further downside with 2958.00 & 2944.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2556; (P) 1.2579; (R1) 1.2600; More....
GBP/USD is losing some downside momentum. But further fall is expected with 1.2645 minor resistance intact. Firm break of 1.2506 will resume larger fall from 1.3381 to 1.2391 low. On the upside, above 1.2645 minor resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.2506 with another rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3381 to 1.2506 at 1.2840 to bring fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
DAX Bullish Bias Above 12520.00
Pivot (invalidation): 12520.00
Our preference Long positions above 12520.00 with targets at 12690.00 & 12740.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 12520.00 look for further downside with 12440.00 & 12400.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
USD/TRY The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 5.6450
Our preference Short positions below 5.6450 with targets at 5.5940 & 5.5770 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 5.6450 look for further upside with 5.6650 & 5.7000 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a new downleg.
AUD/USD The Bias Remains Bullish
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7015
Our preference Long positions above 0.7015 with targets at 0.7050 & 0.7070 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7015 look for further downside with 0.7000 & 0.6985 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.
