Sample Category Title

Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) shows a higher high sequence from June 4 low, favoring further upside. Short term, rally to 7600.75 ended wave (1) and pullback to 7421.48 ended wave (2). Wave (3) rally is in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 7421.48, wave ((i)) ended at 7536 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 7477.75. Wave ((iii)) is expected to end soon and the internal also subdivides as an internal of lesser degree.

Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 7541.5, wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 7509.25, wave (iii) of ((iii)) ended at 7721.75, and wave (iv) of ((iii)) ended at 7630. Expect wave (v) of ((iii)) to end soon, then Index should pullback in wave ((iv)) before another leg higher in wave ((v)). The 5 waves move higher from June 13 low (7421.48) should end wave 1, then Index should correct cycle from June 13 low within wave 2 before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect the Index to continue finding support and extending higher as far as pivot at 7421.48 low stays intact. A break above April 25 peak (7879.5), if it happens, will bolster the bullish view in the Indices.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.38% against the USD and closed at 1.1237.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone's seasonally adjusted construction output eased to a 3-month low level of 0.8% on a monthly basis in April, following a revised drop of 0.4% in the previous month.

Separately, in Germany, the producer price index unexpectedly fell 0.1% on a monthly basis in May, compared to a gain of 0.5% in the prior month. Market participants had envisaged the PPI to register a rise of 0.2%.

The Federal Reserve's, in its latest monetary policy meeting, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, as widely expected. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the U.S. economic outlook is increasingly uncertain, citing trade tensions and slowing global growth.

In the US, data showed that the MBA mortgage applications dropped 3.4% on a weekly basis in the week ended 14 June 2019, declining from its 33-year high and following an increase of 26.8% in the prior week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1267, with the EUR trading 0.27% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1213, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1159. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1295, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1323.

Looking ahead, traders would await Euro-zone's consumer confidence for June, set release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US Philadelphia Fed business outlook for June, the leading index for May and the initial jobless claims, will pique significant amount of investors' attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.75% against the USD and closed at 1.2652, amid upbeat economic data.

Data indicated that UK's consumer price index rose 2.0% on an annual basis in May, meeting market consensus and compared to a rise of 2.1% in the prior month. Moreover, the nation's retail price index rose 3.0% on an annual basis in May, higher than market expectations for a gain of 2.9%. In the previous month, the index had registered a similar rise. Further, Britain's house price index climbed 1.4% on an annual basis in April, compared to a revised rise of 1.6% in the previous month. Market participants had anticipated the index to record an increase of 1.3%. Meanwhile, the CBI total trends order dropped to a level of -15.0 in June, following a reading of -10.0 in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2683, with the GBP trading 0.25% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2588, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2494. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2732, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2782.

Trading trend in the Sterling today, is expected to be determined by the Bank of England's interest rate decision along with UK's retail sales for May, set to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.39% against the JPY and closed at 108.07.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.59, with the USD trading 0.44% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ), in its June monetary policy meeting, decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at -0.10%, as widely expected and pledged the yield target for 10-year Japanese government bonds around 0%. Further, the central bank’s stated that its July policy decision would be subject to the US Fed’s next policy move as well as progress in the US-China trade war.

The pair is expected to find support at 107.25, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.91. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.23, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.87.

Moving ahead, traders would keep an eye on Japan’s national consumer price index for May and the Nikkei manufacturing PMI for June, set to release overnight

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.73% against the CHF and closed at 0.9930.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9907, with the USD trading 0.23% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9866, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9824. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9981, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0054.

Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today, is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s trade balance data for May, scheduled to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Dollar remains the weakest one in Asian session today and selloff is picking up against Yen and Canadian Dollar. Nevertheless, there is no clear follow through decline against others so far. Technically, USD/JPY has resumed recent fall from 112.40 and is on track for 104.69 support. USD/CAD's break of 1.3239 also resumes decline from 1.3564. 1.3068 support will be next target. Against Euro and Sterling, Dollar has yet to break near term structural support at 1.1347 and 1.2765 yet. Stocks were not too happy with the announcement, with DOW closed up only 0.15%.

Fed's announcement overnight was clearly dovish, but not dovish enough to trigger a free fall in the greenback. In short, Fed dropped its "patient" stance and pledged it "will act "will act as appropriate" to incoming data. In the new economic median economic projections, Fed forecasts interest rates to be unchanged this year, followed by a cut in 2020, and then a hike in 2021.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted in the post meeting press conference that " the baseline outlook remains favorable". He pointed that "Seven weeks ago we had a great jobs report and came out of the last meeting feeling that the economy and our policy was in a good place." However, "news about trade has been an important driver of sentiment in the interim." And, the question is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional monetary policy accommodation". He emphasized that "ultimately the question we are going to be asking ourselves is, 'are these risks going to be continuing to weigh on the outlook?'"

Here are suggested readings on FOMC:

• FOMC Review – Divided Fed Signals Rate Cut This Year Still Likely
• Northern Exposure: FOMC Perceive Clear And Present Risk
• FOMC Review: Fed As Dovish It Could Be Without Cutting Rates Already
• FOMC Recap: Fed Doves Play Catchup With Markets
• FOMC Signals Rate Cuts Ahead
• Fed Keeps Rates Steady, But Majority of Members See Cuts ahead
• Fed Policymakers Losing Patience
• Fed Powell press conference live stream
• Dollar down but not out, Fed not patient but not impatient
• Fed forecasts rate cut in 2020, revised down inflation projections
• Fed keeps interest rate at 2.25-2.50%, no longer patient

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.76% against the CAD and closed at 1.3275.

On the data front, Canada's consumer price index (CPI) advanced 0.4% on a monthly basis in May, surpassing market expectations for a rise of 0.1%. In the prior month, the CPI had registered a similar rise.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3243, with the USD trading 0.24% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3194, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3146. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3337, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3432.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at 0.6887.

LME Copper prices rose 0.8% or $46.5/MT to $5895.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.8% or $13.5/MT to $1746.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.6895, with the AUD trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Philip Lowe, stated that the bank is likely to cut interest rates to achieve higher employment growth and get inflation back to a more comfortable level.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.6864, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6832. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6918, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6940.

Looking forward, traders would closely monitor Australia’s CBA manufacturing and services PMI for June, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 1.00% against the USD and closed at USD1362.90 per ounce, amid weakness in the US dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1383.20, with gold trading 1.49% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1352.77, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1322.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1405.67, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1428.13.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.00% against the USD and closed at USD15.14 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.24, with silver trading 0.63% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.99, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.74. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.40, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.56.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.