Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1183; (P) 1.1205; (R1) 1.1219; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. Recovery from 1.1119 is seen as a correction and upside should be limited by 1.1278 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1186 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1119 first. Break there will extend recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it's likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.6890

Our preference Short positions below 0.6890 with targets at 0.6860 & 0.6850 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.6890 look for further upside with 0.6905 & 0.6920 as targets.

Comment The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.6890.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3385

Our preference Long positions above 1.3385 with targets at 1.3425 & 1.3440 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3385 look for further downside with 1.3350 & 1.3320 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9975

Our preference Long positions above 0.9975 with targets at 1.0000 & 1.0025 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.9975 look for further downside with 0.9955 & 0.9940 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Pivot (invalidation): 108.40

Our preference Long positions above 108.40 with targets at 108.75 & 108.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 108.40 look for further downside with 108.15 & 107.95 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further advance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3345; (P) 1.3384; (R1) 1.3446; More...

Current development dampened the original bearish view of medium term topping at 1.3364 in USD/CAD. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for 1.3564 resistance first. Break will target 1.3664 high. On the downside, below 1.3239 will target 1.3052/68 cluster support.

In the bigger picture, outlook is turned mixed after USD/CAD drew strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.3232) and rebounded. Nevertheless, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low), towards 1.4689. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral first. Break of 1.3239 will revive the case of medium term topping at 1.3664. And, decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2620

Our preference Short positions below 1.2620 with targets at 1.2575 & 1.2560 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2620 look for further upside with 1.2650 & 1.2670 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6849; (P) 0.6884; (R1) 0.6907; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.7295 is resuming and further fall should be seen back to 0.6722 low. On the upside, break of 0.6918 will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral for more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1240

Our preference Short positions below 1.1240 with targets at 1.1200 & 1.1185 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.1240 look for further upside with 1.1265 & 1.1285 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 1.1240 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.1200 remains high.

European markets and US futures are ready to start the week on a positive note. During the week, the focus is going to remain on central banks and their monetary policies. Looking at the score card, the S&P 500 index is up 15.16 percent the Dow Jones is 11.84 percent and the Nasdaq has soared 17.5 percent year to date. The volatility index, VIX, is down nearly 39.89 percent year to date. Remember, this is all in the midst of heightened geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trade war between the US and China. This shows that investors are still very much interested in holding riskier assets because the derivatives which are classified as safe event such as gold is up only 4.42 percent year to date.

Investors are largely betting on one important event; central banks are going to remain dovish with respect to the monetary policy due to the slowdown in economic growth. The evidence of this can be seen by looking at the bond market - the German bund yield has dived further into negative territory sitting at a record -0.25 percent. Similar, the US 10-year Treasury yield has nosedived, it has dropped 100 basis point in less than 6 months touching the level of 2.08 percent from its previous reading of 3.15 percent.

Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will take a U-turn this year for its monetary policy and it is only a matter of time before we see a rate cut by the Fed. There's no doubt the weakness in the dollar index which has pushed the gold price higher is mainly due to the reason that speculators see at least 2 rate cuts by the Fed this year.

Having said this, the dollar index has recovered some of its losses during the last few days. This shows that the FX traders are not really siding with the speculators. It is in this essence that the FOMC press conference scheduled on Wednesday is of significant important. The Fed can really put cold water on market expectations of 2 rate cut for 2019. The Fed has been very clear from day one: their move is highly depent on the strength of the economic numbers, and taking such a massive U turn with respect to their monetary policy, isn't backed by the economic numbers.