Sample Category Title

Ethereum has slipped backed to key neckline support as the second largest cryptocurrency continues to trade in lockstep with Bitcoin. The four-hour time frame is showing that a right-hand shoulder has now formed, which completes the bearish head and shoulders pattern. Sustained moves below the $230.00 level are likely to provoke technical selling, with the $205.00 level the most prominent downside target.

If the ETHUSD pair trades below the $230.00 level, key support is found at the $205.00 and $190.00 levels.

If the ETHUSD pair holds above the $230.00 level, key resistance is found at the $255.00 and $285.00 level.

The euro is holding onto most of Friday’s impressive gains against the US dollar in early week trade after the pair performed another impressive technical break. The EURUSD is struggling to surpass its 200-day, with the pair failing to close the daily candle above this key technical area. Corrective moves back towards the 1.1260 level still remain possible if bulls continue to struggle with the 1.1360 to 1.1370 technical zone.

The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1300 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1260 and 1.1230 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1300 level, buyers may test the 1.1360 and 1.1410 levels.

The British pound has so far found strong technical resistance from the 1.2762 level against the US dollar, with price falling below neckline support. If the GBPUSD pair holds below the 1.2747 level we may see the start of a complex inverted head and shoulders pattern forming across the four-hour time frame. Overall, traders may also be feeling cautious ahead of the key data being released from the United Kingdom economy later today and tomorrow.

The GBPUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 1.2747 level, key resistance is located at the 1.2762 and 1.2817 levels.

The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2710 level, key intraday support is found at the 1.2680 and 1.2660 levels.

General Trend:

• Chinese and Hong Kong shares rise after Friday’s holiday
• Chinese banks and property shares rise as PBoC sees more room to ease if needed
• Chinese automakers trade generally higher; China plans to boost consumption of auto and electronic products
• Chinese insurance companies rise, gov’t considering increase in caps for equity investment
• Japan automakers rise on US/Mexico agreement, weaker yen
• China May trade surplus a mixed bag, exports unexpectedly rise and imports decline more than expected
• China exports rise ahead of US’ June tariff increase
• Few comments seen from China PBoC Gov after weekend G20 talks with US Treasury Sec Mnuchin
• Offshore yuan (CNH) remains weaker after recent comments from PBoC Gov
• US dollar trades generally firmer after agreement between US and Mexico, USD index pares some of recent declines seen after jobs data
• Peso rises over 1.9% on deal between US and Mexico
• AUD/JPY reversed opening gains; Nikkei Futures pared advance, China imports declined, offshore yuan drops
• US defense companies Raytheon and United Technologies announce stock merger agreement
• Hong Kong’s extradition bill in focus amid recent protests, debate on measure expected to begin on Wed (June 12th)

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 closed for holiday
• BHP.AU Dams at mines in South Australia and Western Australia are among 5 in the company's global portfolio that have earned an ''extreme'' risk rating should they fail - AFR

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +1%
• (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso did not bring up topic of FX and whether to include currency clause in trade deal during talks with Mnuchin
• (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ): There was no debate on BOJ policy at G20 meeting; G20 reaffirmed commitment to us all policy options if risks materialized, no talks about specific measures for each country
• (JP) JAPAN Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.6%E; ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: 2.2% V 2.2%E
• *(JP) JAPAN APR PRELIM BOP BASIS CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥1.71T V ¥1.51TE; ADJ CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥1.60T V ¥1.44TE
• (JP) Japan May Bank Lending Ex-Trusts y/y: 2.8% v 2.5% prior; Including Trusts y/y: 2.6% v 2.4% prior

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.7%
• (KR) South Korea Presidential Aide: Government plans to announce steps to support growth 'soon' - financial press
• (KR) In May foreigners became net sellers of South Korea equities, selling KRW2.9T v purchased KRW2.5T in purchases in April – Yonhap
• (KR) South Korea Govt: UK FTA will allow South Korea exports like autos and parts to continue to be exported to UK with no tariffs
• (KR) South Korea President Moon chief policy adviser Cheong Wa Dae: South Korea's economy is positioned to face heightened downside risks as the trade dispute between the United States and China escalates, hurting global trade and manufacturing activity - Yonhap
• (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hong: Accommodative monetary policy is needed

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened +0.9%; Shanghai Composite opened +0.2%
• (CN) CHINA MAY FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.1T V $3.090TE
• (CN) CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE: $41.7B V $23.2BE; May Trade Surplus with the US: $26.9B v $21.0B prior
• (CN) CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE (CNY): 279.1B V 136.0BE
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.8925 v 6.8945 prior
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY30B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY10B prior; Net CNY50B drain
• (CN) China authorities called on several tech companies this week to warn them not to reduce exposure to China more than they had to (including pulling out of China or end their business partnerships or stopped supplying US companies) due to US trade restrictions or there would be "consequences" - US press
• (CN) US Treasury Sec Mnuchin: Had constructive talks with China PBOC Gov Yi Gang, including candid talks on trade – tweet
• (CN) China PBOC Gov Yi Gang when asked for comments on meeting with Mnuchin said he was busy and declined to comment on meeting or on prospective meeting between Trump and Xi
• US Treasury Sec Mnuchin: Huawei discussions are really national security discussions, separate from trade, Trump could ease restrictions on Huawei if trade talks progress
• (HK) Over 1M protesters new extradition law with mainland China; largest protest since 1997 Hong Kong handover; some injuries reported as protests turn violent
• (CN) China FX Regulator (SAFE): China's economy has the ability to counteract external shocks has strengthened

Other

• G20 Finance Min and Central Bank leaders joint communique: Pledge to use all the policies they can to protect global growth from disruptions due to trade and other tensions; risks from trade and geopolitical tensions are "intensifying" - from Japan meeting this weekend

North America

• RTN Raytheon and United Technologies Aerospace Businesses to Combine in Merger of Equals in all stock deal; both companies affirm FY19 guidance
• (MX) Pres Trump: US has reached an agreement with Mexico; tariffs are "indefinitely suspended"; Mexico has agreed to "take strong measures to stem the tide of migration"
• (MX) US President Trump: MEXICO HAS AGREED TO IMMEDIATELY BEGIN BUYING LARGE QUANTITIES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS!" – tweet
• (US) Bipartisan legislation introduced in the Senate could compel US-listed Chinese companies to turn over audit records or face delisting

Europe

• (UK) PM Candidate Boris Johnson: Will withhold Brexit bill unless the EU agrees to better terms
• (EU) ECB policymakers open to cutting rate if growth weakens, cites sources - financial press
• (EU) ECB Visco (Italy) said the rise in the Euro has to do with interactions with US rates, market has understood ECB correctly - financial press
• (DE) ECB Weidmann (Germany) said Germany economy could decline 'slightly' in Q2, stimulus package not needed despite economic dip - financial press
• Renault [RNO.FR]: The Chairmen of Fiat and Renault said to have discussed reviving merger plan; advisor to Fiat's Chairman Elkann said to be meeting Nissan's management - financial press

Levels as of 01:20ET

• Hang Seng +2.1%; Shanghai Composite +1.0%; Kospi +1.2%; Nikkei225 +1.2%; ASX 200 closed for holiday
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.3%; Nasdaq100 +0.4%, Dax +0.5%; FTSE100 +0.3%
• EUR 1.1307-1.1331; JPY 108.38-108.67; AUD 0.6969-0.7009; NZD 0.6631-0.6665
• Commodity Futures: Gold -1.0% at $1,332/oz; Crude Oil +0.7% at $54.35/brl; Copper +0.6% at $2.64/lb

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.50% against the USD and closed at 1.1334 on Friday.

On the data front, Germany's seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed to €17.0 billion in April, undershooting market consensus for a surplus of €19.5 billion. The nation had posted a surplus of €20.0 billion in the previous month. Further, the nation's seasonally adjusted industrial production declined by the most in 4 years by 1.9% on a monthly basis in April, surpassing market expectations for a drop of 0.5%. In the preceding month, industrial production had registered a rise of 0.5% in the prior month.

The US dollar declined against its major peers on Friday, following weaker than expected US jobs data.

In the US, data showed that non-farm payrolls advanced by 75.0K in May, less than market expectations for a rise of 175.0K and compared to a revised advance of 224.0K in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's average hourly earnings of all employees climbed 0.2% on a monthly basis in May, compared to a similar rise in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated average hourly earnings of all employees to register an advance of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at a near 50-year low rate of 3.6% in May, meeting market expectations.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1315, with the EUR trading 0.17% lower against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1261, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1208. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1358, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1402.

Amin lack of macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, traders would keep an eye on the US JOLTS job openings for April, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.49; (P) 137.83; (R1) 138.17; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 136.55 might extend. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 146.50 to 136.55 at 140.35 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 136.55 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 148.87 to 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY's medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it's just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we'd expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.30% against the USD and closed at 1.2735 on Friday.

In economic news, UK's Halifax house price index advanced 5.2% on a yearly basis in the March-May 2019 period, rising at its quickest pace in 2-years and surpassing market expectations for a rise of 5.0%. In the February-April 2019 period, the index had recorded a rise of 5.0%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2725, with the GBP trading 0.08% lower against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2690, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2656. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2761, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2798.

Moving ahead, traders would closely monitor UK's gross domestic product, industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance data, all for April, set to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.22% against the JPY and closed at 108.16 on Friday.

Data indicated that Japan's flash leading economic index fell to a level of 95.5 in April, compared to a reading of 95.9 in the previous month. Market expectation was for the index to record a drop to a level of 95.8. Meanwhile, the nation's flash coincident index rose to a level of 101.9 in April, higher than market expectations for an advance to a level of 100.2. In the previous month, the index had recorded a reading of 99.4.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 108.49, with the USD trading 0.31% higher against the JPY from Friday's close. Overnight data showed that Japan's final annualised gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a rise of 2.2% on a quarterly basis in 1Q19, compared to a revised rise of 1.6% in the previous quarter. The preliminary figures had indicated a rise of 2.1%. Meanwhile, the nation posted a (BOP basis) trade deficit of JPY98.20bn in April, compared to a surplus of JPY700.10bn in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.04, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.59. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.78, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.07.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.40% against the CHF and closed at 0.9873 on Friday.

On the macro front, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at a rate of 2.4% in May.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9904, with the USD trading 0.31% higher against the CHF from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9859, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9813. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9950, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9995.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.22; (P) 122.47; (R1) 122.87; More....

EUR/JPY's corrective recovery from 120.78 might extend higher. But upside should be limited below 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 122.10 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 120.78 first. Break of 120.78 will resume the fall from 127.50 and target 118.62 low next. However, sustained break of 123.73 will indicate short term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 127.50 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.