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Canada’s Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Declined To Its Lowest Level Since 1976 In May
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.58% against the CAD and closed at 1.3283 on Friday.
Data indicated that Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a rate of 5.4% in May, marking its lowest level since 1976 and defying market consensus for an unchanged reading. The unemployment rate had recorded a reading of 5.7% in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3273, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the CAD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3231, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3190. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3340, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3408.
Trading trend in the Loonie today, is expected to be determined by Canada's housing starts for May and building permits for April, slated to release later in the day.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.30% against the USD and closed at 0.6998 on Friday.
LME Copper prices declined 0.6% or $35.0/MT to $5770.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.6% or $9.5/MT to $1733.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.6981, with the AUD trading 0.24% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.
Separately in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, trade surplus widened to $41.65 billion in May, following a trade surplus of $13.84 billion in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated the nation to record a surplus of $22.3 billion.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.6956, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6931. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7014, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7047.
Looking forward, investors would await Australia’s NAB business conditions and NAB business confidence, both for May, slated to release overnight
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8864; (P) 0.8884; (R1) 0.8918; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidation form 0.8902 is in progress. Another fall cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained well above 0.8681 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8902 will turn bias back to the upside and target 0.9101 key resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8526). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as EUR/GBP is still staying inside long term falling channel, correction from 0.9305 could still extend to 0.8400 fibonacci level before completion, if upside is rejected by 0.9101.
Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Gain In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.43% against the USD and closed at USD1344.70 per ounce on Friday, amid weakness in the US dollar.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1334.10, with gold trading 0.79% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1326.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1319.83. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1346.97, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1359.83.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6151; (P) 1.6178; (R1) 1.6213; More...
At this point, EUR/AUD is still staying in range below 1.6262. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidation could still be seen. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5683 to 1.6262 at 1.6041 to bring rise resumption eventually. Correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, break of 1.6262 will pave the way to retest 1.6765 high. However, firm break of 1.6041 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5904.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1174; (P) 1.1190; (R1) 1.1213; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1119 temporary low is extending. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited below 1.1278 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1119 will extend recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next.
In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it's likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.
Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.91% against the USD and closed at USD15.01 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.81, with silver trading 1.33% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.67, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.54. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.05, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.29.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.83% against the USD and closed at USD54.01 per barrel on Friday. Meanwhile, fresh figures from Baker Hughes disclosed that the number of active oil rigs dropped by 11 to 789, lowest since February 2018 in the week ended 07 June 2019.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 54.26, with oil trading 0.46% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 53.08, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 51.89. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 54.99, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 55.71.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1273; (P) 1.1311; (R1) 1.1370; More.....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for now, despite today's retreat. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.1448 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.1251 minor support, however, will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it's early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We'd look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2697; (P) 1.2730; (R1) 1.2772; More....
Corrective recovery from 1.2559 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by by 1.2865 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2668 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2559 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.3381 for 1.2391 low first. However, sustained break of 1.2865 will indicate completion of fall from 1.3381. In that case, corrective pattern from 1.2391 low would be in another rising leg through 1.3381 resistance.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) is possibly ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.















