Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 1.0080

Our preference Short positions below 1.0080 with targets at 1.0045 & 1.0025 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.0080 look for further upside with 1.0100 & 1.0120 as targets.

Comment The RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Pivot (invalidation): 2801.00

Our preference Short positions below 2801.00 with targets at 2766.00 & 2747.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 2801.00 look for further upside with 2825.25 & 2840.50 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 2801.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 2766.00 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 11960.00

Our preference Short positions below 11960.00 with targets at 11829.00 & 11780.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 11960.00 look for further upside with 12030.00 & 12110.00 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.79; (P) 122.03; (R1) 122.25;  More....

EUR/JPY's decline resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 127.50 should target a test on 118.62 low next. On the upside, above 122.26 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 118.62 is merely a correction and has completed at 127.50. EUR/JPY is staying in long term falling channel from 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break of 118.62 will confirm resumption of this medium term fall and target 109.20 low. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 125.23 resistance holds.

Pivot (invalidation): 57.10

Our preference Short positions below 57.10 with targets at 55.00 & 54.05 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 57.10 look for further upside with 57.85 & 58.15 as targets.

Comment The break below the support at 57.10 triggered a downward acceleration to 54.05.

Pivot (invalidation): 14.4300

Our preference Long positions above 14.4300 with targets at 14.5700 & 14.6300 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 14.4300 look for further downside with 14.3500 & 14.2800 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Pivot (invalidation): 1285.50

Our preference Long positions above 1285.50 with targets at 1293.75 & 1298.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1285.50 look for further downside with 1282.00 & 1280.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8809; (P) 0.8826; (R1) 0.8842; More...

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8850 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat could be seen through 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.8799). But downside should be contained above 0.8681 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.8850 and sustained trading above 0.8840 resistance will pave the way to 0.9101 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8511). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as EUR/GBP is still staying inside long term falling channel, correction from 0.9305 could still extend to 0.8400 fibonacci level before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6059; (P) 1.6093; (R1) 1.6138; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We'd expect 38.2% retracement of 1.5683 to 1.6262 at 1.6041 to contain downside to complete the consolidation from 1.6262. Correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, break of 1.6262 will pave the way to retest 1.6765 high. However, firm break of 1.6041 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.5904.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Risk sentiment took another massive hit on the final trading day of May, as US President Donald Trump tweeted about imposing a five percent tariff on all Mexican goods entering the US beginning June 10. The move is aimed at stopping illegal immigration, and the tariff rate could be raised to 25 percent by October 1, unless Trump deems illegal immigration has been "remedied".

Markets were left reeling from the announcement that came out of the blue, with the Mexican Peso immediately slumping by over two percent against the US Dollar before paring declines, while Asian stocks and currencies extended their drop for the month. Safe haven assets are gaining at the time of writing. As Gold rallied past the $1,290 level, the Japanese Yen strengthened below the 109 level against the US Dollar, and 10-year US Treasury yields fell further below the 2.20 mark.

Markets in May roiled by Trump's unpredictability

Trump's apparent trigger-happy ways in imposing tariffs on major trade partners have roiled markets throughout the month of May, severely dampening hopes of a global economic rebound this year. Given Trump's overt displays of tremendous unpredictability, investors are left with little choice but to adhere to the risk aversion theme, as the US-led trade tensions risk opening up on new fronts and spilling over into sectors beyond trade.

Such heightened uncertainties set markets up for a jittery June, barring a major turnaround in the US administration's trade stance in the near-term. In the interim, markets will be desperately scanning the horizon for any signs of relief over the coming months, even as they prepare for the likelier scenario of protracted uncertainty that risks becoming a bigger drag on global growth.

Trump's latest tariff shot to keep risk aversion in play

Following Trump's latest tariff salvo, emerging-market assets are exposed to potential contagion effects via the sentiment channel, as seen in Friday's early morning declines for the South African Rand and Turkish Lira, after the slump in the Mexican Peso. The indication of further risk aversion heading the way of financial markets also means that generally risky assets, including emerging markets and Asian currencies belonging to developing nations will fall by the wayside and fail to be picked up along the way by investors as they intensify their flight to safety.

The Yen, Gold, US Dollar are the main assets that are favoured during market uncertainty.

Dollar's charge towards new 2019 high on pause

The Dollar's charge towards a new 2019 high has fizzled somewhat, as the 98.3 mark appears one-step too far for the US Dollar Index (DXY) for now. However, a US non-farm payroll sprint that exceeds market expectations in the week ahead could just be the catalyst required to send the DXY higher, even as the Greenback remains supported by a resilient US economy.

However, the US economic outlook does stand to face headwinds as the global economy suffers through the effects of US-imposed tariffs. Should downside risks become highlighted, the Fed may just have to succumb to market expectations and lower US interest rates, with the Fed funds futures currently pointing to a near-70 percent chance of a rate cut by September.

Oil set to register first monthly loss of 2019 amid flare-up in demand-side uncertainties

Oil is set to widen its first monthly loss of 2019, as Brent futures tumbled towards the $66/bbl mark. Oil's declines were fuelled by Trump's newly-announced tariffs on Mexico, as well as concerns over rising US gasoline stockpiles which suggest weakening demand.

Such market dynamics will frame the upcoming OPEC meeting in June as a pivotal event that will shape Oil's outlook for the rest of the year. Even the decision by OPEC+ producers to extend their supply cuts campaign into the second half of 2019 may not be enough to fully support Oil prices, should global demand deteriorate further. unless Trump deems illegal immigration has been “remedied”.