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USD/JPY edged lower to 109.02 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development argues that rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.40 already. Thus, upside of current recovery should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.88) to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 109.02 will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we'd expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's decline accelerated to as low as 1.2714 last week. The development confirmed completion of corrective rebound from 1.2391 at 1.3381. Larger decline from 1.4376 might be resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.2391 low first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. On the upside, On the upside, above 1.2795 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral for consolidation first before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) is not completed, and is possibly ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, consolidative pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) could still extend with another rising leg. But after all, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 is needed to indicate long term reversal. Otherwise, an eventual downside breakout will remain in favor.

USD/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.0050 last week but drew support from 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. For now, further decline remains mildly in favor as long as 1.0126 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0050 will resume the fall from 1.0237 to retest 0.9879 key support. However, firm break of 1.0126 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0237 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9879 support holds, medium term up trend form 0.9186 is still in progress. Break of 1.0237 will target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. However, decisive break of 0.9879 will be a strong sign of medium term reversal. Focus will be turned back to 0.9716 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we'll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7295 extended and accelerated to as low as 0.6864 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Further decline should be seen to 161.8% projection of 0.7295 to 0.7003 from 0.7205 at 0.6733, which is close to 0.6722 low. On the upside, above 0.6932 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited by 0.6988/7069 resistance zone to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

USD/CAD remained bounded in consolidation from 1.3521 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3296). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

GBP/JPY's decline from 148.87 accelerated to as low as 139.54 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for61.8% retracement of 131.51 to 148.87 at 138.14 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 131.51 low. On the upside, above 140.79 minor resistance will turn intraday bias again and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY was rejected by 149.98 key resistance. And medium term fall from 156.59 is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). On the other hand, decisive break of 149.98 should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Further rally would be seen back to 156.59 resistance and above.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 122.36 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) doesn't display a clear impulsive structure. Thus, we're treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 131.51 support will bring 122.26 low back into focus.

EUR/JPY edged lower to 122.08 last week as fall from 127.50 extended. But as a temporary was formed, initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 124.09 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 122.08 will target a test on 118.62 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 118.62 is merely a correction and has completed at 127.50. EUR/JPY is staying in long term falling channel from 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break of 118.62 will confirm resumption of this medium term fall and target 109.20 low. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 125.23 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.03 low. On the upside, break of 133.12 resistance bring retest of 149.76 (2014 high).

EUR/GBP surged to as high as 0.8778 last week. The strong break of 0.8681 and 0.8722 resistance firstly confirmed rebound from 0.8472 low. Secondly, with a close above 55 week EMA, it's raising the chance of bullish reversal. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.8840 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 0.9101 key resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.8681 resistance turned support will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8511). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as EUR/GBP is still staying inside long term falling channel, correction from 0.9305 could still extend to 0.8400 fibonacci level before completion.

In the long term picture, we're holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120 holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.

EUR/AUD surged to as high as 1.6262 last week as rise from 1.5683 extended. The decisive break of 1.6122 resistance confirmed that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. While upside momentum as weaken mildly, initial bias stays on the upside this week. Further rally should be seen back to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, below 1.6127 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

EUR/CHF's sharp decline last week indicate that rise from 1.1162 has completed at 1.1476, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484. As a temporary low was formed at 1.1264, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.1264 will extend the decline from 1.1476 towards 1.1162 key support. We'd expect strong support above there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1350 will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1484 again.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slightly favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed at 1.1162 after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that medium term fall from 1.2004 is merely a corrective move. That is, up trend from 0.9771 is not completed yet. Nevertheless, there is little prospect of up trend resumption yet. More range trading should be seen in medium term. However, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 will argue that the long term trend has reversed. In this case, deeper decline could be seen back to 1.0629 support and below.