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Euro Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.23% against the USD and closed at 1.1250.
Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi hinted that there could be another delay in rate hikes, if required and expressed concerns over the impact of negative interest rates. Further, he expects rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019. Meanwhile, Draghi stated that a temporary slowdown in the Eurozone does not necessarily foreshadow a serious recession.
In the US, data showed that the US trade deficit narrowed to $51.1 billion in January, amid rise in export and compared to a revised deficit of $59.9 billion in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged the nation to post a deficit of $57.0 billion. Meanwhile, the MBA mortgage applications surged 8.9% on a weekly basis in the week ended 22 March 2019, following a rise of 1.6% in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1253, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1235, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1216. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1279, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1304.
Looking ahead, traders would closely monitor the Euro-zone’s economic confidence, services confidence, industrial confidence and consumer confidence, all for March, set to release in a few hours. Also, Germany’s consumer price index for March, will garner significant amount of investors’ attention. Later in the day, the US annualised gross domestic product for 4Q and pending home sales for February followed by initial jobless claims, will be on traders’ radar.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
British Pound Reverses Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.39% against the USD and closed at 1.3158, after the British Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal to step down if the Brexit divorce deal was approved.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3189, with the GBP trading 0.24% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3132, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3074. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3258, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3326.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japanese Yen Trading On A Weaker Footing In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the JPY and closed at 110.50.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 110.20, with the USD trading 0.27% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 109.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.74. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.57, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.94.
In absence of key economic releases in Japan today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.97; (P) 124.35; (R1) 124.66; More....
EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 132.82 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Further fall is expected with 125.68 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 123.82 will resume the fall from 127.50 to 61.8% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 122.01. However, break of 125.68 will bring stronger rebound back to 127.50 resistance.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 118.62 might have completed earlier than expected at 127.50. EUR/JPY is held well inside medium term falling channel, and below 55 week EMA (now at 127.86). That is, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) might still be in progress. Break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. On the upside, however, break of 127.50 will extend the rebound from 118.62 to 133.12 key resistance instead.
Swiss Franc Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 0.9946.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9954, with the USD trading 0.08% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9918, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9881. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9979, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0003.
Amid lack of economic releases in Switzerland today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Loonie Trading Marginally Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.21% against the CAD and closed at 1.3409.
Data showed that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed less than expected to C$4.3 billion in January, compared to a revised deficit of C$4.8 billion in the previous month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3405, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3375, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3344. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3438, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3470.
Trading trend in the Loonie today, is expected to be determined by Canada’s CFIB business barometer for March, slated to release in a while.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.70% against the USD and closed at 0.7089.
LME Copper prices declined 0.4% or $22.5/MT to $6338.5/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.4% or $6.5/MT to $1849.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7095, with the AUD trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7073, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7052. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7112, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7130.
With no macroeconomic releases in Australia today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic releases for further directions.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.53% against the USD and closed at USD1315.30 per ounce, amid strength in US dollar.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1315.20, with gold trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1310.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1305.07. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1322.73, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1330.27.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8485; (P) 0.8519; (R1) 0.8553; More...
EUR/GBP is still bounded in range above 0.8474 and intraday bias stays neutral. More sideway trading could still be seen. But larger fall is expected to resume as long as 0.8722 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8474 low will resume recent down trend and target 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, though, break of 0.8722 will resume the rebound from 0.8474 to 0.8840 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline could extend to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.
Silver: White Metal Trading On Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.07% against the USD and closed at USD15.27 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 15.29, with silver trading 0.10% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 15.19, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.09. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.42, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.56.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
